When Denny Hamlin crossed the finish line first at Richmond, not only did he grab a trophy at his home track, he also set the mark of the conclusion of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series regular season. As the stress clears from a wild first 26 races, the focus now shifts to the Chase for the Championship – NASCAR’s version of the playoffs. Many drivers will be left wondering “what if” about their season, left to ponder the mistakes made and missed opportunities that caused them to be on the outside looking in. But for these 16 lucky drivers, the opportunity for NASCAR glory is in their hands. It all comes down to 10 more races. As the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Chase for the Championship gets underway, here’s what you can expect from NASCAR’s playoffs:
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Chase Preview
1. Kyle Busch, No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (four wins, 2012 points)
Why He Will Win
In 2015, Kyle Busch missed the first half of the season with a broken leg and then went on a roll in the summer in his return. He kept that momentum through the duration of the Chase. In 2016, Busch grabbed four victories, making him the highest seed when the playoffs begin next week. However, the narrative throughout his career has been finding consistency. Although Busch hasn’t finished in the top-5 since his victory at Indianapolis seven races ago, he has a nice cushion of 12 points from those victories.
Busch does not have to worry too much about advancing to round two. All he needs is to be in the top-12 after race three at Dover. Last year, Busch struggled early as well and needed his bonus points to help him through. He needs is one win per round, and the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is more than capable. Busch succeeds on high speed, mile and a half tracks which the Chase is largely comprised of. There is a very realistic shot of repeating as champion, but he will have to find the consistency and dominance he had earlier in the year if it is going to happen.
2. Brad Keselowski, No. 2 Team Penske Ford (four wins, 2012 points)
Why He Will Win
Like Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski also has four wins and therefore also has a 12-point cushion for the first three races. There are no guarantees in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Chase, but it puts him in a good spot to advance to round two before it even begins. As the Chase progresses, expect Keselowski and Crew Chief Paul Wolfe to work some strategy to try and steal a win. Keselowski does not dominate at the later Chase tracks the same way Busch and some other competitors do. So, they will have to be creative to find ways to stay alive until the Championship round. It worked in 2012 when he worked strategy to grab wins early, and used consistency the rest of the way.
There is even more emphasis on winning now as the playoff format has been modified since the Penske driver was crowned champion. If anyone can work strategy to their advantage, though, it’s Keselowski and his Miller Lite Team. If the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Chase title comes down to strategy, expect Keselowski to be crowned a two-time champion.
3. Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (three wins, 2009 points)
Why He Will Win
No one enters the Chase with more momentum than Denny Hamlin after his big win at his home track in Richmond. The last time Hamlin won at Richmond heading into the Chase was 2010. He finished second in points, narrowly losing out to Jimmie Johnson. From there, the Chesterfield, Virginia native struggled to reach that same level he raced at. Now he is determined to grab that elusive first championship. He won the opening race of the season, the prestigious Daytona 500, which allowed Hamlin and his team to experiment the rest of the way. Although Hamlin hasn’t appeared totally dominant all season, he still drives a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, which far and away has been the most complete team in 2016.
Until Martinsville, there isn’t a Chase track he dominates at. But with the nine bonus points, he should be able to advance to round two from consistency alone. There is no doubt that in order for Hamlin to win the title, the team needs to step up their ability to be out front. Hamlin’s ability to stay out of trouble racing a quiet race until the end and finishing near the front should help him be in position to strike at the end. The question is, can Hamlin handle the pressure this time around?
4. Kevin Harvick, No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet (two wins, 2006 points)
Why He Will Win
Harvick should be the favourite, right? It always seems like he has a dominant car every week, leading laps and setting a torrid pace. But for whatever reason, “The Closer” just hasn’t lived up to his nickname. Whether it is mistakes by his own doing on pit road, or his pit crew letting him down. No driver has lost more spots on pit road than the 2014 Champ, and the frustration has affected his ability to focus on the task at hand. Still, Kevin Harvick does have two wins and his 1,211 laps led shows he has had fast cars. If Harvick will be there at the end, the team will have to improve their pit stops and limit mistakes. Should Harvick still be in contention at Homestead, the rest of the field should be worried.
5. Carl Edwards, No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (two wins, 2006 points)
Why He Will Win
Similar to Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards has never been quite able to seal the deal in a title battle. He finished bridesmaid to Johnson in 2008 and lost in the closest championship battle in history in a tiebreak to Tony Stewart in 2011. Edwards doesn’t have much momentum entering round one in Chicagoland but he races well at most of the Chase tracks.
If Edwards can win early, not only will he feel comfortable about advancing, but he can also use that momentum to string together several good finishes. After all, that is how he lost to Stewart, when the owner-driver won five of the ten Chase races following his own comments on how his Stewart-Haas team didn’t even belong in the Chase. Edwards can also take comfort being part of the dominant Joe Gibbs team, and have the confidence that his equipment has been pacing the rest of his non-teammate competitors. Can Edwards ‘flip the script’ and become a champion?
6. Martin Truex Jr., No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota (two wins, 2006 points)
Why He Will Win
The feel-good story of NASCAR has been Martin Truex Jr. and his wife Sherry Pollex. After battling and beating Cancer, Pollex has been cheering on Truex Jr. and watching his career finally come together. And there has been a lot to cheer about in 2016. Truex Jr. started off strong, losing to Denny Hamlin in the Daytona 500 by mere inches in an exciting photo finish. From there, Truex Jr., with help from the technical alliance at Joe Gibbs, has been more dominant than ever, leading laps and racing consistently in the top-5. One cloud that hangs out the Furniture Row driver is the bad luck the team has had.
There have been countless races this season where Truex Jr. had the dominant car, led the most laps and was in a position to win only to have it fall apart. A late race mistake on pit road, a caution to fall at the wrong time, or getting caught up in someone else’s wreck.His luck was so bad that at a race in Pocono, a flying lug nut got caught in the wheel during a pit stop and eventually led to a blown tire and a wrecked race car; the occurrence was a one in a million chance of happening. Despite all this, Truex Jr. has two wins and has shown he can dominate a race.
Besides his pseudo-home track at Dover, no Chase track really stands out as a place Truex Jr. is a favourite. However, this is a different driver than in past years. The team is stronger, the driver-Crew Chief relationship is stronger and the belief they can persevere through adversity is stronger. Truex Jr. has battled through a lot to get here. Now is the time for his luck to change for the better.
7. Matt Kenseth, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (two wins, 2006 points)
Why He Will Win
Experience is valuable in the Chase and few drivers are as experienced as Matt Kenseth. Just once, in 2009, has Kenseth missed the Chase. Yet despite being there every year, he has yet to actually win the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Chase. The only title he won was in 2003, the final championship won in the pre-Chase era. He has been close, such as his second place finish in 2013, but he could never quite be dominant enough to get over the hump. The time is now ticking as the Wisconsin native is in the twilight of his career.
In order to win it all this year he will need to be able to have a strong enough car to battle his Joe Gibbs teammates like Busch, Hamlin, Edwards and even technical teammate Truex Jr. The two wins he notched early in the year will go a long way as Kenseth is already a very consistent driver; he shouldn’t have a problem in round one. But as wins become more valuable with fewer spots available, that is where this team will be tested. Kenseth has shown in the past he can raise his intensity level. That may be required again as the pressure builds and time begins to run out.
8. Jimmie Johnson, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (two wins, 2006 points)
Why He Will Win
Can you ever really count out the 48 Team in the Chase? No driver has been more dominant since the playoff format was introduced. But ever since Johnson grabbed his sixth championship in 2013, it’s been a struggle to retain his command over the rest of the field. Teams like Joe Gibbs, Penske and Stewart-Haas appear to have leapfrogged the once dominant Hendrick Motorsports and Jimmie Johnson seems to have suffered a bit. Still, he has won twice this season and while Johnson’s finishes haven’t been as consistent.
Johnson and Crew Chief Chad Knaus know how to grab momentum back and know how to win at every track at in the Chase. No one else in the field can even come close to calling themselves a six-time champion, and although he has struggled for large stretches. Johnson should still be confident in his team and ability to close the deal when it counts.
9. Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford (one win, 2003 points)
Why He Will Win
For whatever reason, Joey Logano could not be relied on to compete for wins early in his career at Joe Gibbs Racing. Since his shift to Team Penske, it’s been a complete reversal. Logano runs well and consistently at nearly every track and knows how to pull away from the field when he has a good car. He has done a decent job at limiting mistakes thus far and that will have to continue if he wants to have a shot at the end.
Avoiding trouble will be his biggest task as Logano has been involved in four wrecks this season. With just a single win, the pressure will be on to avoid trouble and perhaps work some strategy to safely lock themselves through to the following rounds. If Logano can find the magic he made in last year’s Chase, winning three straight races at Charlotte, Kansas and Talladega, then “The Best Thing Since Sliced Bread” will be hoisting the trophy in Miami.
10. Kyle Larson, No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates Chevrolet (one win, 2003 points)
Why He Will Win
Each week Kyle Larson seems to get closer to what he will look like in his prime. Consistently fast and aggressive, yet patient. Larson looks to be a contender for years to come in this sport and is doing so with Chip Ganassi Racing. Not that this team is underfunded, but in NASCAR, they certainly aren’t one of the top three or four teams. That considered, what Larson has been able to do thus far is impressive.
With the elusive first win finally under his belt, the California native now has the confidence he can pull his Target Chevy into Victory Lane, which will be key for Larson to make a deep run. Limiting mistakes on pit road and avoiding wrecks is a big understatement for Larson who has struggled at times to close out a good run at the finish. A lot of the Chase tracks are good statistically for Larson, who is out to prove that in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Chase, anything is possible.
11. Tony Stewart, No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet (one win, 2003 points)
Why He Will Win
Imagine the headlines if Tony Stewart, in his final year of Sprint Cup – where he missed the first eight races due to a broken back, wins the championship. It would be an even better farewell than last year with Jeff Gordon. To do so, Stewart will have to improve on his overall program. While he did have a great car in his only victory in 2016 at Sonoma, which started a run of good finishes, his year has been mostly disappointing.
Stewart has averaged a middling 17th place finish this season. If Stewart wants to advance to round two, he will need to either win or improve on that average finish. It worked for him in his championship-winning 2011 campaign where he strung together five victories exclusively in the Chase, so the approach for him will be likely be the same. If successful, that will be one heck of a retirement party.
12. Kurt Busch, No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet (one win, 2003 points)
Why He Will Win
Much like his other Stewart-Haas counterparts in the Chase, 2016 has been up and down for the older Busch brother. After a solid first half, which included a win at Pocono, Kurt Busch struggled to find the same consistency. A solid top-10 run would be followed up with a poor handling race car and a battle just to finish in the top half of the field. That coupled with two wrecks in the last four races to enter the Chase has Busch searching for momentum.
The winner of the inaugural Chase in 2004 shouldn’t be too concerned though. He performs well at many of the tracks in the Chase, although not in the same dominant fashion with laps led and victories as some of the other Chasers. Still, he knows how to stay out of trouble and when to be aggressive late in a race, which could be enough to propel him through to the final and grab the glory for a second time in his career.
13. Chris Buescher, No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford (one win, 2003 points)
Why He Will Win
The Chase will have 10 rain-shortened races and he and Bob Osborne will work the strategy to their favour all the way to a championship. In all seriousness, Chris Buescher does not have much of a shot of even getting through to round two, let alone the championship round. The Bob Jenkins-led Front Row Motorsports have done a nice job starting from nothing just a few short years ago to a very surprising Chase berth in 2016.
The exposure alone of just being in the Chase should do wonders for this team moving forward to eventually becoming a competitive team on a week-to-week basis. Who knows? Maybe Buescher will win a fuel-mileage race or stay out on a late race restart to steal a second win this season and spot in round two. That would really turn some heads.
14. Chase Elliott, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (on points, 2000 points)
Why He Will Win
No NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver has won the championship in their rookie season. It’s unlikely that streak will be broken for a while but if someone will do it this year, Chase Elliott is the best bet. With teammate Jimmie Johnson’s documented struggles, Elliott has virtually carried Hendrick Motorsports for much of the season. Reeling off consistent finishes and being in position on multiple occasions for his first career win.
He will need to stay out of trouble more consistently and might want that first win to come sooner rather than later if he wants to be a player in rounds two, three, or four. He’s got a championship-winning father, plus countless mentors within Hendrick who are past champions. The environment Elliott is surrounded in is positive which can only help his chances.
15. Austin Dillon, No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet (on points, 2000 points)
Why He Will Win
It will be one of the biggest upsets, other than perhaps Buescher and Elliott, if Richard Childress’ grandson could shock the field and win a championship. Austin Dillon has yet to find Victory Lane in his nearly three year Sprint Cup career but he has shown steady improvement.
Dillon’s best shot to win is Talladega, with a best finish of third, at a track that is a great equalizer. However, it’s up to the RCR driver to still be in contention by then for a victory to help him win a title. He will need a lot of luck and need to run closer to the front on a consistent basis but the recently engaged Dillon will be striving for more than just a wedding ring.
16. Jamie McMurray, No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates Chevrolet (on points, 2000 points)
Why He Will Win
Jamie McMurray thrives under pressure in big scenarios. He has won the Daytona 500, Brickyard 400 and Coca Cola 600, three of the biggest races on the NASCAR schedule. What he hasn’t managed thus far is to do serious damage in the Chase, with just one other Chase berth in his career, in 2015, where he finished 13th. While he enters this year as the lowest seed, McMurray has the ability to advance simply by staying out of trouble and having solid top-10 finishes.
McMurray only needs to climb four spots, which is more than doable for the Joplin, Missouri native. Under pressure last week at Richmond, McMurray drove a phenomenal race en route to a seventh place finish. If he can do that consistently, he could sneak his way to the final round without even winning, like Ryan Newman did back in 2014. It won’t be easy, but on the big stage, McMurray and the rest of his Ganassi Racing Team are up for the challenge.
Final 4 Prediction
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Martin Truex Jr.
Brad Keselowski
Champion
Kevin Harvick
Pit road blunders aside, no driver has had as much speed and dominated races as often as Harvick. Stewart-Haas Racing is too deep of an organization to have these pit road issues to continue into the Chase. Whether that means switching pit crews, or having a team meeting to regain focus, the pit stops will improve and will cease to cost the team victories. Meanwhile, Harvick has the ability to string multiple wins together as well as grab the checkered flag in must-win scenarios. Truex Jr., Hamlin and Keselowski will give Harvick a run but in a one race, winner-take-all, Harvick will win Ford EcoBoost 400 and the 2016 Sprint Cup championship.
