UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 – Fight Predictions and Betting Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway II. This is one of the most anticipated cards of the year here with Conor McGregor making his return during International Fight Week. The event is in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena with one of the biggest expected gates ever. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick as our records will not reflect confidence in each selection. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few. 

Current Record 2026

• Anthony: 177-81-4 (Last Year 331-183-3, 64%)
• Nick: 171-87-4 (Last Year 326-188-3, 63%)

*Fight odds were last updated from bet365 on 7-10-2026 at 7pm EST

UFC 329 Undercard: Odds, Predictions, Breakdown

5:00pm EST (undercard)
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, USA

Alessandro Costa -250 vs Cody Durden +200

• Anthony: Opening this event are flyweights Cody Durden and Alessandro Costa. This is the third appearance for Durden in just four months. He defeated Jafel Filho in his last fight as a +475 underdog. He is tough and surely going to retain a roster spot for some time given his grit and willingness to compete often. Durden does not fight with the best skillset here at 35 years old, but he always tends to make matchups competitive with opponents on the feet. Durden is also known to mix in his offensive wrestling, but here against Costa I am not sure he will find much success in pursuit of takedowns. Costa averages 86 percent takedown defense. The Brazilian is also a power threat in this division with stoppage wins in both of his previous appearances. Durden can take a lot of punishment but his defense is poor and he gets hit far too often. I do not expect him to perform well here against this power threat. It seems like a very poor matchup stylistically for Durden who needs to fight a near perfect match in order to win. Costa is a fine moneyline bet but I also suggest that he will win inside of the distance. He is taking a risk appearing here on just ten day’s notice. Alessandro Costa by Round Two KO

• Nick: Alessandro Costa is relatively well rounded with seven of his sixteen professional wins coming via KO and six coming via submission. He’s extremely aggressive no matter where his fights go, but that sometimes comes at the expense of his defense. He’s a powerful striker and effective in scrambles, but his cardio and durability both do seem to be areas in which he can be exploited. Costa is 4-3 in the UFC, coming off an impressive KO win over Matt Schnell. Notably, he is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for the injured Ode Osbourne. At his best, Cody Durden is a well-rounded and gritty fighter who finds most of his success using his wrestling to keep pressure on his opponents. He’s more than competent on the feet, but in most matchups we see him try to score takedowns to control position and grind out wins on the scorecards. He usually comes out aggressive and has success in the early rounds, but his durability and cardio have been regressing over the past few years. He is coming off a win via decision over Jafel Filho, but prior to that win he was on a four fight losing streak. Durden can look good early here, especially if he can get his wrestling going. That being said, I expect Costa can find his chin as he manages to mostly keep this fight on the feet. Durden can land volume here, but he doesn’t have the durability to trade with Costa in the pocket. Alessandro Costa by Round Two KO

Ryan Gandra -140 vs Zach Reese +115

• Anthony: Next is a fight at middleweight between Ryan Gandra and Zach Reese. Gandra earned a contract last year on Dana White’s Contender Series and already secured his first victory inside of the octagon. The Brazilian is a threatening athlete at this weight who relies mostly on his power in order to get the job done. The victories for Gandra have gradually gotten better but he has still not faced anyone quite the caliber of Reese to this point. I have also not been very impressed with Reese yet as he makes his ninth UFC appearance. Some of the performances have been very underwhelming with Reese struggling to defend or land any strikes that are consequential. Standing at 6’4″ Reese’s notable size advantage and ability to switch stances make him a tricky fighter to oppose at range, but Gandra wants to stand and compete with him here in a kickboxing match. He needs to find counters off of Zach’s teeps and long range attacks. Reese’s grappling seems to be further along than Gandra and I think he would have more of an advantage here taking this fight to the ground. Gandra seems very live for the early finish but after that I would expect this fight to go Reese’s way. I will take my chances betting on Gandra here today because Reese is very hittable and so far he has not been able to rally back after eating a lot of clean punches. Ryan Gandra by Round One KO

• Nick: Ryan Gandra is coming off a KO win in his UFC debut over Jose Media back in February. Gandra is 31 years old and 9-1 professionally. He’s generally well rounded, with five of his wins coming via KO and four coming via submission. Gandra is an accurate pressure striker who has dangerous BJJ if his fights hit the mat. He’s a tough fighter to get a read on as his resume lacks depth, but does seem to be making considerable improvements from fight to fight. Zach Reese is 10-3 professionally. At his best he thrives on aggression. Seven of Reese’s ten professional victories had come via first round stoppage. As impressive as Reese has been on the surface, most of his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. Reese is long for the division with dangerous BJJ, but his defense both at striking range and on the mat is questionable at best. He’s athletic with a solid frame, but it’s tough to know what to expect of him at the UFC level as he has been generally inconsistent to this point of his career. This is a relatively low level match-up and a difficult fight to call. Reese is more well-rounded, but he is extremely hittable and Gandra has a considerable power advantage in this fight. I expect Reese will be live for the upset if he can extend this one, but it seems more likely Gandra can stop him for an early finish. Ryan Gandra by Round One KO

Farid Basharat -625 vs John Garza +450

• Anthony: Here is a fight at bantamweight between John Garza and Farid Basharat. It is a short notice appearance for Garza who is replacing the injured Ethyn Ewing today. We were in for a good scrap with Basharat facing Ewing but now I am expecting a clear beatdown here instead. Basharat is 15-0 with great patience and elite fight IQ. His most recent victory came this year when facing Jean Matsumoto. He is a highly skilled wrestler who averages 3.34 takedowns landed per fight. I like seeing Basharat mix his striking with grappling, changing levels quickly and shooting far underneath opponent strikes. He does well chaining together his takedowns and forcing opponents to constantly react to each move. Garza is the promotional newcomer accepting this debut match on just days’ notice. He is going to have a hard time taking rounds off of Basharat since his offensive output will be limited. I do not think the underdog will be comfortable letting go of his hands given the takedown threat. He actually profiles as a solid young fighter that could win fights in the UFC moving forward, just not today. Basharat is dedicated to his wrestling and grappling so most of this fight will likely take place on the mat. Garza will struggle to fight back to his feet here with Basharat always a step ahead, cutting out his base and dragging him back onto the ground. It is going to be too tall of a task for Garza here on short notice. These odds seem fair for what is another matchup Basharat should be able to thrive in stylistically. Farid Basharat by Decision

• Nick: Farid Basharat is the younger brother of Jahvid Basharat, and objectively the more talented of the two. Baharat is highly skilled no matter where the fight goes. He is 15-0 professionally, coming off a hard fought decision win over a tough out in Jean Matsumoto. He does a good job working behind his jab. He throws lengthy combinations and he generally does a good job forcing his opponents to fight at a very high pace. His grappling is solid, especially defensively. He’s dangerous in scrambles and very difficult to take down. In this particular match-up, there’s a good chance we see him grappling offensively as he should have a major BJJ advantage here. John Garza will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice for the injured Ethyn Ewing. Garza breaks into the promotion with a 6-1 professional record at just 23 years old. He’s still far from developed as a prospect, but he has solid striking fundamentals, he’s extremely aggressive, and he also carries surprising power for his frame. He has taken on a quality level of regional opponents having most of his recent fights under the Fury FC banner, but this represents a major step up in competition for him here against Basharat. Additionally, his defensive grappling seems to leave a lot to be desired and it’s tough to know how he’s going to fare against grapplers at the UFC level. Garza is a decent young fighter, but this is a massive step up in competition for him here, especially on short notice. I expect Basharat to stay a step ahead in this one, and he has a path to dominate if he can take this fight to the mat. I expect he will. Farid Basharat by Round Two Submission

Damian Pinas -250 vs Cesar Almeida +200

• Anthony: This should be a fun fight at middleweight between Cesar Almeida and Damian Pinas. From Aruba, Pinas is now 9-1 with five straight victories by knockout. All of Pinas’ wins to date have come by finish. He is a very lethal striker with power in each of his limbs. The 24 year old has immense talent but he is also developing into a more complete athlete training with the team at Nova Uniao. Coach Andre Pederneiras continues to mentor Pinas and help him evolve as a fighter. Here he benefits from a five-inch reach advantage and Pinas figures to also be much faster than Almeida. There is a drastic age gap here as Almeida is 38 years old with much less room for improvement. He is a very talented kickboxer but I think Almeida made the transition to this sport too late. The dynamic that makes this fight so interesting is that Almeida has never been finished before, including his career of 57 kickboxing matches. Pinas may have the death touch but if Almeida is still there and capable of fighting in rounds two and three I expect he will begin gaining momentum. Almeida won his contract by unanimous decision and he is live to win again today on the judge’s scorecards. The output is too low for me to roll the dice with Almeida but it would not surprise me to see him win. I would rather bet on Pinas by Knockout instead of taking him here as a moneyline favorite. Damian Pinas by Round One KO

• Nick: Damian Pinas is 24 years old and 9-1 professionally, coming off a KO win over Wes Schultz in his UFC debut back in February. Training out of Nova Uniao in Brazil, Pinas is a physical specimen at middleweight. He is an explosive athlete with KO power and he forces his opponents to fight moving backwards and at his preferred pace. He is somewhat predictable in his approach, but his strength and power make him a dangerous opponent as he continues to develop as a prospect. Each of his last four wins have come via Round One KO, and he has never seen a third round professionally. As impressive as this is, it’s tough to gauge what he’ll look like if extended as his cardio is still a major question mark at this level. Cesar Almeida is primarily a striker. He’s only 7-2 professionally in MMA, but he has an extensive resume in kickboxing that includes a win over current light heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira. Almeida has solid cardio and durability, and he can put power in his strikes even when he’s moving backwards. Like many kickboxers, however, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. It is also notable that he is one of the older fighters in the division as he enters this match-up at 38 years old. Pinas is the much faster and more explosive athlete in this match-up and the age gap here has to be considered. That being said, Almeida is still the better technical striker and he has the ability to make this a frustrating fight as an underdog. He’ll need to stay safe early, but I do expect Almeida can show superior class here as this fight wears on. Cesar Almeida by Round Two KO

Wang Cong -110 vs Tracy Cortez -110

• Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight matchup with Tracy Cortez facing Wang Cong. These odds are pickem for good reason as this will be a battle between elite striker and grappler. Handicapping this fight is difficult because either athlete could show up and execute their gameplan, looking like a clear favorite on their way to victory. Cortez is known for her wrestling and she averages 2.15 takedowns landed per fight. Cong has shown some weakness in terms of her grappling defense so Cortez will be a great test to see if her awareness has improved on the mat. Cong will struggle against ranked flyweights if she cannot handle the wrestling pressure from Cortez. This is not a massive opponent at flyweight and getting held down would be a very bad look for Cong. Here standing it will be a clear advantage for The Joker who hits much harder and connects with much better technique. Her kickboxing can be overwhelming for opponents and I think Cortez will struggle in this fight because of the vast discrepancy in power. She is also at a reach disadvantage. We have seen Cortez stay patient in fights and remain sound defensively, but I am not convinced that she will win here with such limited offensive output. Cong has a few ways to win in this matchup while Cortez needs to rely on scoring takedowns and earning control time. I expect it will be difficult for her to take two of these rounds from Cong. Wang Cong by Decision

• Nick: Wang is 34-years old and 9-1 professionally. She’s getting a late start to her MMA career, but she’s been kickboxing for years and she’s quite athletic compared to the majority of the women’s flyweight division. Wang is fairly well-rounded, but it’s certainly at striking range where she finds most of her success. She puts out a ton of volume on the feet, and while she doesn’t carry much power, her speed and precision give her finishing upside against lower level opponents. Like many kickboxers her defensive grappling is certainly an exploitable weakness for opponents at an elite level, and she is very likely to be tested in that area here against Cortez. Tracy Cortez is fairly well-rounded, but her greatest strength is certainly her grappling ability. She has a solid wrestling base, impressive ground-and-pound and she averages nearly three successful takedowns per fifteen minutes. She is 12-3 professionally and has been out of action since an ugly submission loss to Erin Blanchfield back at UFC 322. That being said, she really has only lost to the absolute class of the division. This is an extremely binary match-up in which Wang should dominate at striking range and Cortez should have her way on the mat if she can secure takedowns. That being said, I see the gap in the grappling here as wider than the gap on the feet. I prefer the Cortez side, especially given the value she presents as an underdog. Tracy Cortez by Decision

Luke Riley -250 vs Kai Kamaka +200

• Anthony: This is a matchup between featherweights Luke Riley and Kai Kamaka. Riley is a 13-0 prospect from England training at Next Generation MMA Liverpool. Tonight he is happy to be sharing the card with his teammate and good friend Paddy Pimblett. Riley is another showman who earned a Performance of the Night bonus last year in his promotional debut. His striking is very high level and here he faces an opponent that almost strictly wants to box. Kamaka is a very tough fighter, but standing and exchanging strikes with Riley will not go well. He is a high volume striker but not heavy handed or the most careful with his footwork. Kamaka averages 5.40 significant strikes landed per minute but he is also absorbing 5.67 on average which is way too high. He puts himself in position to be hit very often and in this matchup against Riley he will likely get hurt. I expect to see Riley put down Kamaka by using his kicks and various other weapons. He is a much more accurate striker and more powerful in terms of ending fights. This is one of my most confident bets and getting -250 to play Riley seems like a great price. The finish may not materialize here facing a durable Hawaiian, but Riley’s stock will continue to rise with another clean win. He looks entirely ready for a step into the top fifteen. Luke Riley by Round Two KO

• Nick: Luke Riley enters this match-up with a 13-0 record at 27 years old. He fights out of Next Generation MMA Liverpool with the likes of Paddy Pimblett and Molly McCann. Prior to his UFC debut, Riley’s entire professional career had been fought for the Cage Warriors promotion in England. He’s primarily a striker, with nine of his professional wins coming via KO. He has surprising power for his frame, he fights at a torrid pace and he’s especially dangerous striking out of breaks. His defensive grappling is questionable at best, but he does seem to be improving considerably from fight to fight. Kai Kamaka III is coming off a win over Dakota Hope, which came in his first fight back with the UFC since he was cut from the promotion in 2021. Many felt Kamaka should never have been released at the time, as in spite of mixed results he fought competitively against a quality level of competition. During his time away he fought for notable promotions in PFL and Bellator. Primarily a striker, Kamaka doesn’t carry much power but he has solid fundamentals. It’s rare we see him lean on his wrestling, but in this particular match-up that will likely present him with his clearest path to a potential victory. I do expect Kamaka can find early takedowns and look good early here, but as this fight wears on I see Riley pulling away as he lands more volume on the feet. The price feels inflated, but I am siding with the favorite. Luke Riley by Decision

Adrian Yanez -400 vs Cody Garbrandt +300

• Anthony: Here is a fun scrap at bantamweight with Adrian Yanez facing Cody Garbrandt. The former champion Garbrandt is now 35 years old but coming off a victory in his last appearance. Both of these men only have one win in the octagon since 2023. Yanez was a favorite of mine when he first arrived in the promotion but the recent performances have not been impressive at all. I will give Yanez credit for facing a lot of difficult competition, but he has not really looked like the same fighter he did working with his late coach Saul Soliz. Here Yanez should let his hands go to easily double the strikes landed by Garbrandt. I just worry once again this will be a close decision when three rounds end. Garbrandt is still very fast and able to match most opponents in boxing exchanges. I give Garbarandt the edge here grappling as well, but I am not certain that he will attempt to take down Yanez. Garbrandt has always featured some wrestling in his fights but over his previous two appearances he has gone 0 of 15 on takedown attempts. He will show the level change to Yanez but perhaps not commit to many shots. It will be very hard for him to steal rounds off Yanez tonight without landing a knockdown. I will pick Yanez to win but there are much more appealing bets for this event than taking him at -400 odds. Garbrandt seems to be damaged goods at this point in his career but this is not a matchup that should give him too much trouble stylistically. Adrian Yanez by Decision

• Nick: Adrian Yanez is a very technical boxer who throws sharp and effective combos better than many of the more experienced fighters in this division. He does a good job using combos to set up his power shots, and his advanced boxing instincts at a young age have drawn comparisons to a young Jorge Masvidal. Similar to Masvidal, he does a good job throwing feints and leading his opponents into traps. All of the strikes he throws are meaningful. That being said, he is mostly one-dimensional. His grappling is more of a weakness than a strength and at times he does struggle to defend against leg kicks. Cody Garbrandt, a former bantamweight champion, has been struggling to stay active. His chin and durability seem to have mostly dissolved, as he’s lost seven of his last eleven fights. At his best, Garbrandt is a highly technical striker who can frustrate his opponents with precision and speed. He has a decent wrestling base as a long-time member of Team Alpha Male, and he’s also shown to have surprising power for his limited frame. He has lost a lot of speed over the years, and he’s coming off a win over Long Xiao but it came in a controversial decision in which Xiao was deducted multiple points for groin strikes. This feels like a match-up between two fighters whose careers are moving in opposite directions. Gabrandt has grown tentative over his last few fights, and Yanez has the technical boxing skill to make him pay for inactivity. Additionally, Garbrandt’s chin has to be of major concern in this type of matchup. Adrian Yanez by Round Three KO

Gable Steveson -3000 vs Elisha Ellison +1200

• Anthony: Next is a fight at heavyweight between Gable Steveson and Elisha Ellison. This is a very anticipated debut for Steveson who is an Olympic gold medalist and two-time NCAA National champion. He is a freak athlete and the youngest to win Olympic gold at super heavyweight. Men of his size should not be able to move so explosively. He has also been training under the tutelage of Jon Jones. The ceiling is unbelievably high for Steveson at just 26 years old. Wrestling is one of the best bases for this sport and especially effective when competing against heavyweights. However, Steveson has only fought for one year and had three professional fights prior to making his debut. He can continue to learn and grow as a fighter against meek opponents like Ellison but make no mistake that he is still very green. In order to prove valuable at these odds, Steveson will take down Ellison almost immediately at the start of this bout. He is comfortable throwing some punches but today I do not think Steveson will take any chances on the feet. I am expecting that his size and strength prove to be way too much for Ellison in the first round of action. Steveson will force his way down to the mat quickly and stop this fight via ground and pound or perhaps his first victory by submission. Bettors still need to target props on this fight rather than betting the biggest moneyline favorite in UFC history. Gable Steveson by Round One KO

• Nick: Gable Steveson will be making his UFC debut here, as one of the most highly regarded prospects that the sport has seen in years. One of the most credentialed wrestlers to ever step into the sport, Steveson was a Gold Medalist at the 2020 Olympic Games. He is also a two-time NCAA Division I Heavyweight Champion, a two-time Dan Hodge Trophy winner, a four time Big Ten Champion, and a five-time NCAA All-America. He is just 3-0 professionally in MMA, but he trains under Jon Jones out of Jackson Wink MMA and many have him marked as a future contender in a shallow heavyweight division. Steveson obviously prefers to grapple in most of his fights as he’s already a better wrestler than most of the heavyweights on the roster. He has power in his strikes and he continues to show improvements at range, but there is no denying his clearest advantages will come on the mat. Elisha Ellison is 29-years old and 5-2 professionally, with four of those wins coming via KO. Ellison is another powerful striker who tends to find success at range. He’s aggressive in general and it seems he has a solid chin, but he really hasn’t been tested against a quality level of opponent. He lost via ground-and-pound KO in his UFC debut, and he’s in a brutal spot here as one of the biggest underdogs ever in UFC history. The line here is comical, but Steveson seems to be the real deal. He should steamroll his opponent here as he breaks into the UFC. Gable Steveson by Round One KO

Robert Whittaker -130 vs Nikita Krylov +110

• Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at light heavyweight with Robert Whittaker taking on Nikita Krylov. Here Whittaker is moving up to 205 pounds after two straight losses at middleweight. The former champion did well in his last fight against Reinier de Ridder but lost via split decision at the end of five rounds. Whittaker really is a very savvy veteran who can control the pace of his fights while staying sound defensively. He has 59 percent striking defense compared to Krylov whose opponents miss only 47 percent of the time. Krylov has a big frame even for light heavyweight but he will be considerably slower than Whittaker here. In moments where these two are exchanging on the feet it will be Whittaker landing the much more effective strikes. His jab and basic combinations will find a home against Krylov who will be forced to fight here with his guard raised. Krylov figures to have a decisive edge grappling against Whittaker but I think he will struggle to bring this fight to the mat. Whittaker averages 82 percent takedown defense and with his great footwork, Krylov will really need to be creative in order to set up his takedowns. He has historically had very bad takedown accuracy. I am siding with The Reaper in this matchup and now confidently betting him closer to even money. These odds have drastically changed after Krylov opened the week as a +170 underdog. Robert Whittaker by Round Two KO

• Nick: The former UFC Middleweight Champion, Robert Whittaker, is very cerebral defensively and generally does an excellent job circling away from the power of his opponents. Additionally, he does a good job staying on the offensive even when he’s backing up. It is encouraging to see that Whittaker has been leaning on his leg kicks a lot more lately. He’s a decent grappler with solid takedown defense, and his cardio is still great for his age. He has been out of action since he suffered a split decision loss to Reinier de Ridder back in July of 2025, and he’ll be moving up to light heavyweight here for the first time in his career. Nikita Krylov is more than willing to eat shots to throw them. He’s a talented kickboxer with extremely powerful kicks. If he can take fights to the mat he’s also an aggressive offensive grappler with sixteen of his thirty-one professional wins coming by way of submission. He’s coming off a solid win over Modestas Bukauskas via KO in a fight that took place back in January, but he is visibly declining in speed, durability, and general athleticism. Krylov will have a size advantage here, and he’ll be very dangerous if he can take this fight to the mat. That being said, Whittaker should have a dramatic speed advantage. Additionally his footwork is league’s ahead of Krylov’s. He’ll need to stay defensively sound given the size discrepancy, but as long as he does he should find a lot of success at striking range. Robert Whittaker by Round Three KO

UFC 329 Main Card: Odds, Predictions, Breakdown

9:00pm EST
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, USA

Terrance McKinney -140 vs King Green +115

• Anthony: The main card begins with a great scrap as Terrance McKinney will face King Green. Do not blink here as McKinney holds the UFC record for fighter with the shortest average fight time. We have seen great performances out of Green lately as he has now won three fights in a row. This will be his fourth appearance inside of six months which is really a remarkable feat here at 39 years old. Green has had a long career in the sport given his very elusive style. His defense will certainly be put to the test here in round one against McKinney. McKinney has not even needed a full half round to end his previous seven fights! His last appearance was a win by knockout against Kyle Nelson inside of thirty seconds. He fights as if he is double-parked and today will likely be another quick finish. Green will struggle to match the power of McKinney but he does have opportunities to counter big here. McKinney also burns too hot in round one and never has the cardio to fight past the first five minutes. Green will plan to extend this fight against McKinney as long as he can but I am convinced one of these two will be slumped over badly before round one ends. Neither of these two are very durable but I trust McKinney more in these first two minutes compared to Green who has been knocked out six times before. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO

• Nick: King ‘Bobby’ Green is a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. He usually wins fights by out-striking his opponents at boxing range. He throws a lot of volume, with decent power on his shots, and he generally does a good job stringing together effective combinations. While Green is certainly a quality boxer offensively, he tends to keep his hands down more often than he should. He likes to talk to and taunt his opponents as he fights, which occasionally leaves him on the wrong end of exchanges. Green is getting up there in age, but he does still occasionally show flashes of brilliance on the feet. Terrance McKinney is known as a knockout artist, but he has underrated wrestling ability as well. He is 18-8 professionally and all of his wins have come inside the distance. He is 6-5 in the UFC, most recently securing a twenty-four second KO win over Kyle Nelson. In most of McKinney’s fights he pushes a ridiculous pace. He overwhelms most of his opponents early, but if he can’t find a quick finish he’s usually dominated late as his cardio/gas tank fails. This is an extremely volatile match-up that is almost certain to end inside the distance. Green should pull away and dominate if he can withstand McKinney’s initial attack, but that feels like a tall task considering the gap in both age and athleticism. It is notable that each of Green’s last three losses have come via round one finish. Terrance McKinney by Round One KO

Lone’er Kavanagh -200 vs Brandon Royval +160

• Anthony: Next is a flyweight matchup between Brandon Royval and Lone’er Kavanagh. It was very intentional that Kavanagh is placed here on the card underneath Paddy Pimblett and Conor McGregor. He jumped at the opportunity to fight Royval as soon as news broke he needed an opponent. This could be the next big star to come from England with elite striking and a very fan-friendly style. Kavanagh’s last fight was a dominant victory against Brandon Moreno on the road in Mexico City. He lands great combinations, hitting opponents with pull counters and always deadly accurate. Here we will see a frantic pace set by Royval and Kavanagh should do just fine matching his energy and landing high volume throughout the fight. Royval thrives in chaotic moments, scrambling with opponents and scoring offense as often as he can. Royval will want to engage Kavanagh grappling here in order to stay safe but so far we have seen elite takedown defense from Lone’er in the promotion. He was successful stopping all eight of Moreno’s takedown attempts in his last fight. Kavanagh is also the more compact fighter and harder to attack at his base. Royval will spend this fight eating leg kicks and punches while struggling to find any real grappling success. I am expecting to see Kavanagh score at least one knockdown here against Royval who is always very hittable. He leaves a lot of openings when attacking opponents from the southpaw stance. Both of Royval’s previous two fights saw him knocked down and last time out against Manel Kape he suffered a round one knockout. Lone’er Kavanagh by Decision

• Nick: Lone’er Kavanagh is 10-1 professionally, with four of those wins coming via KO. Kavanagh is 26-years old, and he’s already well developed for his age. Prior to breaking into the UFC, he primarily fought for a respectable regional promotion via Cage Warriors. He’s a competent grappler, but primarily he is a dangerous and aggressive striker. He fights well in the pocket and his power for a flyweight makes him a prospect worth keeping an eye on. He is 3-1 so far in the promotion, coming off a massive win over a former UFC Flyweight Champion in Brandon Moreno in a fight he took on short notice. That win elevated his status as a prospect, and he now finds himself in another high level spot against a tough out in Brandon Royval. Brandon Royval is one of the more aggressive fighters there is on the roster. He starts fights like he’s shot out of a cannon. He is well-rounded with a solid chin but his crafty BJJ and dangerous offensive grappling ability is certainly his greatest strength. He has notable wins over Kai Kara-France, Brandon Moreno, and most recently, Tatsuro Taira. He thrives in chaos and he’s done a good job forcing opponents to fight at his ridiculous pace. This should be a competitive fight, as momentum here is on the side of Kavanagh. He’s going to be the better boxer in this match-up, but I do expect Royval can outland him at range and mix in his grappling if he needs to. I am extremely concerned about Royval’s durability here, but there is too much value on him as an underdog to ignore. I expect he can keep this fight close and do just enough to pull out the win on the scorecards. Brandon Royval by Decision

Cory Sandhagen -130 vs Mario Bautista +110

• Anthony: The featured bout is this fight at bantamweight between Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista. This is a rematch of a short notice bout from 2019 that earned Bautista his spot on the UFC roster. Bautista stepped in to replace an injured John Lineker and lost that fight against Sandhagen by round one submission. That result can basically be thrown out now seven years later with both men evolving so much since. Sandhagen has only fought the absolute best and I favor him quite a bit over Bautista on paper. He is the better technical striker, causing opponents to bite on feints and switching his stance frequently. Bautista is also comfortable fighting opponents out of either stance but it will not serve him well to chase Sandhagen and copy him when he does switch sides. Sandhagen is much better in terms of his defense and mixing in a wider variety of attacks. He would be -300 if this were a main event but today we only will see three rounds of action. Bautista does time his takedowns very well and likely will try to grab Cory to rack up some control time in this fight. His one clear path to victory is a decision where he has secured two rounds on the mat. I expect that Sandhagen will be able to fight out of tough positions and get back to his feet here. I am betting on him and hoping that the judges get this right by giving favor to his effective striking. Cory Sandhagen by Decision

• Nick: This bantamweight represents a match-up that took place back in January of 2019, a fight in which Cory Sandhagen won via Round One Submission. Since that fight both of these fighters have made major improvements in the cage. Cory Sandhagen has outstanding cardio, which comes as no surprise as he trains in the thin Colorado air. Sandhagen generally does a good job keeping distance and using his length to pepper his opponents while staying out of danger. Sandhagen is an extremely diverse striker that uses not only his hands well, but also his elbows, knees, and feet. Sandhagen’s constant stance switching, endless movement on the feet, and ability to land from varying angles have made him a difficult puzzle to solve. He lost two of his last three fights, but each of those losses came against elite wrestlers in Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov. Mario Bautista is a powerful striker at range. He does a great job managing distance and he uses feints well to set up his combos. While he’s most comfortable standing and trading, he is also a competent grappler as a brown belt in BJJ. He has a solid wrestling base, which he uses to control position against a wide range of opponents. Against good strikers, he can lean on his grappling. Against good grapplers, he can lean on his striking. I could absolutely see this fight going either way, but I do slightly prefer the Sandhagen side. He should be able to use his length to outland Bautista, and it is notable that he’s been more consistently taking on an elite level of opponent. Cory Sandhagen by Decision

Benoit Saint Denis -150 vs Paddy Pimblett +125

• Anthony: In the co-main event it will be Benoit Saint Denis facing Paddy Pimblett at lightweight. This is a pivotal fight for both men here in terms of the lightweight title picture. Pimblett has always drawn comparisons to McGregor as another Cage Warriors champion, but now they finally share the same fight card. Pimblett last fought Justin Gaethje in a bout considered by most as Fight of the Year. That matchup was sloppy but Pimblett displayed toughness and really proved his point that scousers cannot get knocked out. It would surprise me to see Saint Denis stop Pimblett after the champion Gaethje was unsuccessful doing so. He has always thrived in fights early, rushing at opponents and dominating a lot of foes on the ground. It will be interesting to see how Saint Denis’ grappling stacks up against Pimblett and his jiu jitsu blackbelt. I prefer Pimblett against almost anybody grappling and I wish he would utilize those submission skills more often. Here I think he may catch kicks from Saint Denis to drive him down to the mat. Saint Denis is a dangerous fighter but Pimblett is much more complete and capable of winning by any means necessary. In a five round fight, Pimblett would certainly pace himself and win once Saint Denis gasses out. Here he will instead be forced to work hard toward a finish for three rounds. I expect Pimblett to bounce back from that loss and earn a stoppage win here. He is more durable than Saint Denis who almost never makes it to the judges’ scorecards. Paddy Pimblett by Round Two Submission

• Nick: Benoit Saint-Denis is a BJJ specialist with a solid wrestling base and an impressive arsenal of submissions at his disposal. Prior to back-to-back losses to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano in 2024, he had strung together five straight wins under the UFC banner. He is now on a new four-fight win streak, coming off an impressive KO win over Dan Hooker. On the feet, he works well behind a powerful body kick. He is an aggressive striker who is at his most dangerous in the early rounds. His cardio seems to be somewhat of a question mark, but it is notable that he’s been taking on a mostly elite level of competition. Paddy Pimblett is primarily a grappler, and his greatest advantage is certainly his highly aggressive and dangerous style. He hunts for submissions from almost any position. His BJJ is certainly his greatest strength, but we’ve seen consistent improvement in his striking from fight to fight. The biggest knock on Pimblett are the holes in his striking defense. He keeps his chin high in exchanges and we’ve seen him clipped, more than once. He’s made major improvements over the past few years, but he’s coming off an ugly decision loss to Justin Gaethje in which he took a lot of damage over the course of five rounds. This is a tough match-up to call as Saint Denis is the much better wrestler and striker, but Pimblett is the more durable fighter with the better BJJ. Given Saint Denis tendency to put his neck where it doesn’t belong, I’ll take a shot on Pimblett to scoop his neck and find an opportunistic choke. Paddy Pimblett by Round Two Submission

Max Holloway -220 vs Conor McGregor +180

• Anthony: The main event features Max Holloway facing Conor McGregor in his much anticipated return to the octagon. This bout takes place at welterweight with Holloway moving up to 170 pounds for the first time. The four appearances for Holloway at lightweight were solid and he was going up against some of the most elite fighters in the sport. He continues to boast one of the best chins in the UFC and better boxing skills than his opponents. McGregor utilized his wrestling to beat Holloway during their first encounter but that matchup was way back in 2013. I do not think he will have the cardio to engage in much grappling here today. These odds should realistically be much wider due to activity and ring rust. McGregor has not fought in five years after fracturing his left leg against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264. This sport is not often kind to fighters that are inactive and McGregor will turn 38 years old next week. Holloway’s ability to throw long combinations will be too much for Conor to handle. The only real chance for McGregor here comes early in round one. It also seems likely that McGregor took banned substances during this hiatus, but now that he has returned to the testing pool I do not expect him to be at any advantage. It is going to be very difficult for McGregor to fight efficiently for more than one or two rounds. Holloway will be comfortable here taking his time and using all 25 minutes to pick apart McGregor if he needs to. I would suggest that Holloway use kicks to attack McGregor’s ankle but I am sure most of this bout will occur at boxing range. I am confidently picking Holloway to win here and anchoring him at the end of all my parlays. Max Holloway by Round Three KO

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• Nick: This is a rematch of a fight that took place all the way back in August of 2013. Conor McGregor secured the win by decision in that first meeting, but both of these fighters have developed, held titles, and taken a lot of damage since then. Max Holloway has outstanding head movement, near flawless footwork, and against inferior strikers he’s known to put on unforgettable performances. He showed a willingness to grapple in his 2021 match-up with Yair Rodriguez, but I fully expect him to try to keep this fight standing as he looks to build on an already outstanding legacy. Holloway lands more than seven significant strikes per minute and he absorbs less than five. He has secured wins in six of his last nine fights, but it is notable that this will be the first fight of his career at welterweight. Anytime McGregor fights it is must-see TV with huge TV ratings. He’s one of the best boxers to ever fight under the UFC banner and the first fighter to ever hold titles at multiple weight classes. He has outstanding power for his frame, and in his prime his counter-punching ability was amongst the best on the entire roster. As gifted as McGregor is, he has been out of action since July of 2021, where he suffered a broken ankle in a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier. He is 1-3 in his last four fights and he hasn’t won a fight since January of 2020. McGregor’s size and power will make him dangerous early in this spot, but given his lack of activity and problems outside of the cage I exect him to struggle if he’s not finding an early finish. Holloway is simply still closer to his prime than McGregor is. He’ll need to stay safe early, but I expect him to build momentum on his way to an impressive victory as this fight wears on. Max Holloway by Round Four KO

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