Michigan football’s path to bowl eligibility goes directly through the visitors from Evanston. Advanced stats and probabilities put the Wolverines’ chances for a sixth win this weekend at about 70%. Apply the same matchup preview tool to this year’s edition of The Game, and Michigan’s got a 10% shot to eke one out, which feels criminally generous. They need to get it done against Northwestern, it’s as simple as that.
Last week’s recruiting catchup noted that bowl eligibility is essential for a team that clearly needs additional practice time. How will it go down? Let’s take a look at the matchup between the Wolverines and Wildcats.
A Slapfight On Offense
Both Michigan and Northwestern are at the bottom of FBS offensive rankings, each averaging less than 300 yards per game. Pitiful. The Wolverines are better at running the ball, averaging 155 yards per game to the Wildcats’ 105. Northwestern’s been more effective through the air, averaging 178 yards per game to Michigan’s 134. It all amounts to a pretty dismal matchup for two moribund attacks.
Michigan continues to beat its head against the wall under Kirk Campbell’s watch. Kalel Mullings had an outside shot to be an all-conference player early in the season as he ran roughshod week after week. When opponents keyed in on him, Campbell put him on the shelf, rather than bother countering off those defensive plans. One would hope to see Mullings featured early and often in this game. It feels like the kind of matchup where the first to 10 points wins, given the shared offensive ineptitude. Ride Mullings to 100 yards and a score or two and let the defense handle the rest. This is the prescription, but there’s little indication Michigan will follow it.
For David Braun’s Northwestern outfit, Michigan fans will be horrified to see that an even worse offense is possible. The offensive line has problems across the board, especially after Sherrone Moore raided one of their better pieces in guard Josh Priebe. Running back Cam Porter is a longtime Wildcat with middling career results thus far. He’s not likely to find much running room against this front. The Wildcat receivers are interesting, led by top option Bryce Kirtz and former Wolverine speedster A.J. Henning. Assuming Will Johnson is still sidelined, Wolverine cornerback vs. Wildcat receiver is the most ‘interesting’ matchup on this side of the game.
A Defensive Standoff
This game will be won with defense. That gives Michigan a sizable advantage, especially coming off their surprisingly effective game against the high-powered Indiana offense. Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Josaiah Stewart, and Derrick Moore will almost certainly devour Northwestern’s woeful offensive line. From there, the most concerning elements are blown coverages and ill-timed blitzes. Neither should be relevant in a game where playing base defense without frippery ought to be enough to win.
Northwestern ranks 58th in total defense (Michigan is 38th), and they’ll likely hold their own against the Wolverines’ 129th-ranked offense. Linebacker Mac Uihlein leads the team with 64 tackles, with cornerback Theran Johnson as his closest competitor (44 tackles). Johnson also had two picks and 10 passes defended, so he’ll be a problem against this fairly toothless passing attack.
The Wildcats’ defensive line is pretty nondescript. Even with Michigan’s brutal offensive line this year, there’s a clear path to victory between the run game and a healthy dose of Colston Loveland.
So Long, Seniors, And Hello, New Guys
If nothing else, Michigan needs this one to send their seniors off with one last win in The Big House. Mullings, Myles Hinton, Quinten Johnson, Makari Paige, Donovan Edwards, and many more will make their final run out of the tunnel and onto their college home field. Even in a lost season, that’s worth celebrating.
It’s a curtain call for so many who were integral to Michigan’s championship run. This year’s team looks so different from last year’s in myriad disappointing ways. In the same vein, next year’s team will look vastly dissimilar to this year’s, as new freshmen and transfers arrive to try and shake off the stink of 2024.
To that end, one bright spot for this weekend’s action will be keeping an eye on potential contributors for next year. Freshmen edge Dominic Nichols, safety Mason Curtis, and cornerback Jo’Ziah Edmond are already making contributions on defense. On offense, running back Jordan Marshall has flashed when healthy. We may see promising players like receiver Channing Goodwin and lineman Andrew Sprague get a cup of coffee to blood them for bigger roles in 2025.
The Wolverines will likely end the season with a ritual sacrifice to the Buckeyes. In the meantime, It will be nice to say farewell to the elder statesmen and welcome the next generation.
The Bottom Line
Win and score an invite to the Pontiac Aztec Bush’s Baked Beans Bowl*, then hope to pull off the upset of the century in Columbus. Lose and…well, hope to pull off the upset of the century in Columbus to score an invite to the Pontiac Aztec Bush’s Baked Beans Bowl**.
Predictions:
- Mullings gets more than one (1) first-half carry.
- Loveland gets 8 catches for 90 yards.
- Henning torches his old comrades for a score.
- Michigan 22, Northwestern 13
* – not an actual bowl game
** – still not an actual bowl game
