Alabama will look to avoid a major upset against the Mercer Bears and extend their winning streak to three games. Coming off their biggest win of the year, the Crimson Tide are in a good position to make the college football playoff. According to ESPN, they are currently 10th in the rankings. With a favorable remaining schedule, they’ve put themselves in the enviable position to not only get into the playoff but potentially still win the SEC.
Most Complete Game
That favorable schedule starts with the Mercer Bears, an FCS team from the Southern Conference. They are a 9-1 team that hasn’t played a legitimate opponent like this all season. Bama is coming off their most complete performance since the week-three beat down of Wisconsin. In the 42-13 win against LSU, the offense and the defense were both in sync. During his press conference, Kalen DeBoer made it clear he felt the same way.
“Proud of the way the guys prepared. Proud of the way they started. The confidence that they showed early on led to the production. This led to us playing our most complete game. Offense, defense, special teams.”
DeBoer mentioned the fast start again which has been a point of emphasis for a while. That will be very important this week. With Alabama facing a 41.5-point underdog like Mercer, the longer they stay in the game the more confidence they gain. If they get momentum, they truly begin to think the upset is possible. Alabama needs to snuff that out early.
Finding Consistency
They can build off last week to not only win these final three games but to put themselves in the position to make a playoff run. A major part of that has been sustaining offensive drives. That’s possible when a team wins time of possession, which Alabama did by seven minutes. Another struggle for this team throughout the year has been third-down conversions. Over their previous four games, they were 13 for 40 on third down. Against LSU, they were 10 for 13.
The other obvious element has been the turnovers. They had none against the Tigers while creating three. One way to limit interceptions is to limit the amount of throws. Jalen Milroe only attempted 18 passes last week. That was possible because of the dominant run game. Milroe was the standout with 185 yards, but the rest of the team combined for another 127 yards. That’s a total of 312 yards on 46 carries which is 6.8 yards per carry. Milroe is a talented passer but this is how to minimize his mistakes.
Campbell’s Star On The Rise
The defense has come alive and a big reason is Jihaad Campbell. The linebacker has been Bama’s best defender all year. He leads the team in tackles plus four sacks, an interception, and two forced fumbles. But he’s becoming more of a playmaker. On Saturday, his two sacks caused a fumble and the other forced LSU out of range to go for it on fourth down. His game will need to go to another level now that Que Robinson is done for the year. Robinson was tied with Campbell for the team lead in sacks. Others will need to make up for that loss, but Campbell’s ability to make big plays in big moments will need to continue.
Mercer Matchup
Mercer is relatively unknown playing in the FCS. During his press conference, DeBoer said they rank near the top in most of the statistical categories. He was half right. Their defense has been excellent this year. They rank first in run defense, third down conversions, defensive touchdowns, and sacks in the entire FCS. They’re eighth in points per game and 10th in total yards allowed per game. The defense will have the best matchup chance against Bama.
The Bear’s offense on the other hand is underwhelming. The passing and rushing offenses barely crack the top 30 in yards per game. They average 34.8 points per game which is 16th in the FCS, but that is helped by having the most defensive touchdowns. Alabama’s defense has played well the last couple of weeks so if they keep that up, they could have a huge advantage over this mediocre offense.
The Same Problem
Penalties have been the Achilles heel for the Crimson Tide all season. Even in what was their most complete game, they were penalized seven times for 75 yards. They average over eight penalties a game which is tied for fifth-worst in the country. Alabama and Mercer have the same problem. Mercer also averages eight penalties per game for 69 yards. Both rank near the bottom of the FCS. If these trends hold true, Saturday’s game could be long with lots of whistles. The one way the Bears could get a win is if they limit their penalties and Alabama continues to struggle in that area.
No Excuses
Mercer is one of the best teams in the FCS. But they are more than 40-point underdogs for a reason. Alabama is a far more talented team than Mercer. If they limit their mistakes, they will win. Given the state of the SEC and how they’ve been allowed back in the hunt, there are no excuses. They should win big. It’s an opportunity to keep building on recent success and prepare for the postseason. But they can’t take this team lightly. They do and it could ruin all the work they’ve done to revive the season.
