Unfortunately, there’s more bad news for those who opposed playoff expansion. It has now expanded into the regular season for all practical purposes as LSU hosts Alabama with both teams’ playoff hopes on the line. Saturday’s primetime matchup will feature two teams with two losses and no room for error. This annual battle is usually impactful in the SEC race. The weight of this game is still evident in the first matchup of the post-Saban era of the rivalry.
Similar to other powerhouses, Alabama seems more vulnerable in 2024. It’s unusual for the Crimson Tide to carry two losses into November. Despite its setbacks, Alabama is on a short list of schools to rank in the top 20 of offensive points per game and scoring defense. First-year head coach Kalen DeBoer has a confident team coming off a dominant 34-0 win against Missouri before its bye week.
LSU, unfortunately, did not have as positive of an experience in its last contest. The Tigers crumbled under the momentum of big plays in a tough environment in a loss to Texas A&M. With both teams exhibiting Jekyll and Hyde traits this year, we accepted the challenge of deciding who has the edge.
LSU Hosts Alabama
Containing Jalen Milroe
The Tigers have faced their fair share of mobile quarterbacks this season, and the results have varied. South Carolina’s Lanorris Sellers ran for 88 yards, but Arkansas’s Taylen Green did not have positive yardage. Even though the memories of A&M’s Marcel Reed running wild are still fresh, LSU has had success against mobile quarterbacks at times. With two weeks to install a game plan, the LSU defense will be mentally prepared to execute. The players will have to prove that they can hold up physically against Jalen Milroe and the Tide offense.
Alabama not only has one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the country, but they also have talented, physical backs in Jam Miller and Justice Haynes. Both backs are well over 200 pounds. Each of the two also have touchdown runs over 55 yards this season. Milroe and freshman receiver Ryan Williams get the attention, but everything Alabama wants to do on offense starts with the running backs.
The result of this game could come down to the play of LSU’s safeties. LSU cannot stop the Alabama rushing attack with its front seven alone. Consequently, the two safeties and Major Burns at the Star position will be critical in containing the run. None of the Bama ball carriers are easy to bring down, so tackling is paramount. Stopping the run can get the LSU defense in position to unleash its most consistent weapon, the pass rush. Milroe’s decision-making has been questionable while adjusting to the new offense. A turnover in a close game against its most hated rival would send the home crowd into hysteria.
Finding Offensive Balance
LSU abandoned the run against Ole Miss but still managed to get the win. The Tigers weren’t as lucky against Texas A&M. Garrett Nussmeier has a deeper group of receivers at his disposal than Milroe, but the better teams in the SEC will not allow a one-dimensional offense to beat them. The Tigers must run the ball effectively to win, but can they?
Statistics tell us that Alabama is 12th in the conference in run defense, so the Tigers aren’t exactly running into a brick wall. Stats also say that Missouri has a better defense than South Carolina, so context is key. Alabama is susceptible to giving up rushing yards, but it’s not as simple as lining up and knocking defenders off the ball.
The Tide run defense is salty when it knows what’s coming. A first-down inside zone run up the middle is unlikely to have success. Teams that ran well against Alabama made the defense hesitate. South Carolina’s option forced Alabama to read and react consistently, and the Gamecocks had success. Tennessee used tempo and motion to create lanes. The Tigers don’t have to morph into the ’95 Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday. They just need to run enough to avoid being predictable. If LSU has any semblance of a run game Nussmeier can have a big day against the Alabama secondary.
Who Comes Out on Top?
Memories are short in this sport. LSU consistently improved for six weeks, but all progress was forgotten after losing to Texas A&M. Alabama looked like the most dominant team in the country after a half of football against Georgia. The Tide lost against Vanderbilt, then fans suddenly questioned everything from DeBoer’s coaching acumen to his choice of gameday shirts.
Even with so much change, some things remain the same. Georgia at Alabama, Bama at Tennessee, LSU at Texas A&M, and Texas A&M at South Carolina all have a common result. The home team won. Home-field advantage is as valuable as ever, as evidenced by LSU’s 14 straight home wins. Milroe will make some plays on the ground and through the air, but it won’t be enough. The LSU defense, fueled by the crowd, will make enough stops to push the Tigers over the top.
