Each year, tradition dictates that the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans engage in a familial football squabble. A trophy resembling American folk hero Paul Bunyan is up for grabs. Divided households across The Mitten gather around the television to eat coney dogs, drink Vernors, and talk trash.
Some years, both teams are good, and the resulting football is compelling. Some years, one team is clearly better than the other. This year is neither of those years.
This year, both teams enter with identical 4-3 (2-2 in conference) records. The team from East Lansing feels pretty good about that, given preseason expectations. The same cannot be said for the team from Ann Arbor. It’s two teams with first-year head coaches playing flawed football. Let’s talk about it!
The Spartan Offense
This side of the matchup will center on three players: quarterback Aidan Chiles, running back Kay’ron Lynch-Adams, and freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh. The trio just put together their best game of the season against a normally stoic and sound Iowa defense.
It starts and ends with Chiles, who transferred from Oregon State with head coach Jonathan Smith. The enigmatic sophomore has alternated flashes of his potential with crushing turnovers, of which he’s committed 12 thus far (nine picks, three fumbles). Smith has opted to take the licks that come with letting a young quarterback make mistakes in hopes that he’ll improve and mature as the season progresses. It’s looking like a good move – Chiles is starting to be more secure with the ball of late.
Lynch-Adams, formerly of Rutgers and UMass, usurped previous starter Nate Carter and has provided a solid floor in the backfield. He’s got 82 carries for 424 yards, good for 5.2 yards a pop. On the outside, Marsh is performing better than expected for a freshman. He leads the team in receiving yards and has formed a formidable tandem with Chiles through the air – one that will give the Wolverines fits for the next few years. The Spartans will try to exploit whichever non-Will Johnson corner matches up with Marsh.
The offensive line may end up making all of this moot. They did just have their most cohesive performance against the Hawkeyes, but the right side in particular looks vulnerable. If they’re able to hold Michigan’s formidable line in check, it bodes well for Chiles’ continued development. If not, this offense might get stuck in the mud more often than not.
The Wolverine Offense
Just kidding, we already talked about that. In short: it’s bad and doesn’t appear to be trending in a positive direction. No need to belabor the point.
In all seriousness, this should be a game that features Kalel Mullings heavily. To a lesser extent, Donovan Edwards should eat as well. A focused, intentional Michigan running attack that features both backs sharing snaps and controlling the ball portends a positive outcome against a Spartan defense with exploitable matchups at all three levels. Don’t forget fullback and captain Max Bredeson, a punishing lead blocker who should be the secret weapon for Kirk Campbell, who will be coaching for his job in this one.
The Spartan Defense
As a whole, this unit has been fairly pedestrian and has the PFF grades to prove it. They have 15 sacks on the season, but nearly half of those came in the opener against a bad Florida Atlantic team. The defensive line had a largely below-average day against Iowa and looks to be without a true star player across the front. Still, given the diminished state of Michigan’s offensive line, we may see frustratingly big games from end Khris Bogle and tackle D’Quan Douse.
Moving to the linebacker level: fear not, Cal Haladay fans. The slow-footed, no-gloved linebacker is back. You’d hope to see Haladay lined up against and exploited by Edwards, Colston Loveland, and/or Semaj Morgan. However, there’s been little evidence to suggest that Michigan will scheme themselves into those kinds of matchups. Even if they did, there’s equally little evidence to suggest they’d be successful at it. If the Wolverine run game is working as it should, there’s hope for big plays if Mullings and Edwards can break into the second level.
Cornerback Charles Brantley has three interceptions this season, and safety Nikai Martinez has chipped in two of his own. The secondary is not likely to be challenged much in this one, due to…[gestures at the wreckage of Michigan’s pass game].
The Wolverine Defense
The first-team defensive line should be able to hit the buffet here. As aforementioned, right tackle Ashton Lepo and right guard Brandon Baldwin look eminently beatable. If Josaiah Stewart finds himself on the right side on passing downs, Chiles will need to act quickly to avoid danger.
Jaishawn Barham’s continued ascension should also play a big role in both disrupting the offensive line and stuffing any potential holes in the run game ceded by the defensive line. Ernest Hausmann has had a tough stretch lately but has also shown flashes of his potential in the process. Now is a great time for a get-right game.
The secondary’s performance will depend greatly on whether or not Johnson plays. If he’s healthy, he helps erase MSU’s chances for success on the outside. If not, Michigan will need big games from Aamir Hall, Jyaire Hill, and the safeties to keep Chiles and co. in check. They managed to hold Luke Altmyer to just 80 passing yards last week, so it’s not impossible. Chiles is also a good bet to get flustered enough by the defensive line that he could rush into bad throws. Michigan needs to be ready to exploit those.
The Bottom Line
Before any predictions, it’s worth addressing special teams, as this could very easily devolve into a field goal contest. MSU’s Jonathan Kim has been nearly automatic on field goals this year, going 13-of-14 with a long of 55. Dominic Zvada has been equally reliable for Michigan, hitting a 16-of-17 clip with the same long. Punting could get interesting. Ryan Eckley is averaging 48 yards per punt for the Spartans, while Tommy Doman’s woes for the Wolverines are well known at this point (he’s towards the bottom of FBS in punting yards and average yardage). A field goal battle is an even matchup, a field position battle less so.
All told, despite the talent advantage in Ann Arbor it’s difficult to be excited about the Wolverines in this one, especially with Smith’s team trending upward after the surprise Iowa win. They may come out with a more cohesive, calculated offense this week, but we’ll need to see it to believe it. Until then.
Predictions:
- Marsh burns a non-Johnson cornerback for a score.
- Michigan sacks Chiles four times.
- Loveland has twice as many receiving yards as the rest of Michigan’s receivers combined.
- Multiple quarterbacks play for Michigan and combine for three turnovers.
- Mullings goes for 125 yards and a score.
- Kim and Zvada are asked to kick at least four field goals apiece.
- As fun as it would be to predict 27-24 again… Michigan State 22, Michigan 19
