Two weeks ago, the college football world was treated by number four Alabama beating number two Georgia in an instant classic. This weekend, among the incredible slate of college football that includes three ranked matchups, the second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes travel to the third-ranked Oregon Ducks for the biggest game of this young season.
#2 Ohio State at #3 Oregon: By the Numbers
The Schedule to This Point
Through six weeks, Ohio State and Oregon are unblemished with both teams winning all five matchups on the schedule thus far.
Ohio State has beaten Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, Michigan State, and Iowa with just the Michigan State game played away from the friendly confines of Ohio Stadium. The Buckeyes are outscoring opponents by an average of 46-6.8. Ohio State is averaging fewer than one touchdown allowed per game.
Ohio State owns the fourth-best scoring offense in the nation and second-best in the Big Ten. The defense, meanwhile, is the best in the country in terms of scoring. Does the caveat of, “Who have they played?” exist? Definitely.
Oregon has wins over Idaho (FCS), Boise State, Oregon State, UCLA, and Michigan State. The Ducks have two away games to their name to this point and are outscoring opponents 35-17. Oregon did raise a few eyebrows with concerning performances in the first two weeks and very narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of Heisman Trophy favorite Ashton Jeanty and Boise State.
The two teams have just one common opponent: Michigan State. The Buckeyes beat Michigan State 38-7, Oregon won 31-10. Ohio State outgained the Spartans 483-246 while the Ducks had the advantage, 477-250.
The transitive property does not exist in college football but if it did, it would seem like these two teams are incredibly even with Ohio State holding a narrow advantage. Vegas agrees and the visiting Buckeyes are 3.5-point favorites heading into Eugene (according to FanDuel).
Oregon’s Leader
This matchup will go down as one of the oldest quarterback battles of the year. It may not hold a candle to Cam Rising vs. Alan Bowman‘s seventh-year quarterback battle with a combined age of 49. However, sixth-year quarterback Dillon Gabriel leads Oregon against fifth-year quarterback Will Howard and Ohio State. Gabriel will be 23 years and 289 days old while Howard will be 23 years and 18 days old for a combined age of 46 years and 307 days.
Gabriel is in his third school after spending three years at UCF and two at Oklahoma. Heading into 2023, he led his conference in passing yards and touchdowns twice (once in the AAC and once in the Big 12). In all four of his seasons where he played more than three games, he threw for at least 25 touchdowns.
This year, Gabriel is on pace for another massive year but he’s taking advantage of the Oregon system. Through five games, he is leading the country while completing 77.8 percent of his passes. He is a solid quarterback in his own right but it is interesting to see that Bo Nix led the way while completing 77.4 percent of his passes last year with the Ducks.
To this point, Gabriel has passed for 1,449 yards and 11 touchdowns with multiple touchdown passes in each of the Ducks’ wins. Gabriel has moved up to fourth all-time in career passing yards and third in touchdowns. He’s 2,093 yards and 19 touchdowns away from owning both.
The Buckeye Quarterback
Howard comes into this game on his second team after spending his first four seasons with Kansas State. Howard helped lead the Wildcats to the 2022 Big 12 title but his career to this point is not quite as prolific as Gabriel’s. In four years at KSU, Howard threw for 5,786 yards and 48 touchdowns.
This year, the new Buckeye signal caller has thrown for 1,248 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing 71.5 percent of his passes. His completion percentage is well on its way to being a career-best (61.3 percent in 2023 was the previous high off of 219 attempts).
Like Gabriel, Howard has benefitted from the Ryan Day/Chip Kelly system. Only 196 of his yards are off passes beyond 20 yards. He has a litany of NFL-bound weapons (as does Gabriel) but he isn’t just dumping it off. In the win over Iowa, Howard made several tight-window throws and he’s shown an ability to place the ball where only his receiver can get it thus far this year. His deep ball, while completing 45.5 percent and being on pace to beat his career mark of 32.6 percent, does need a little work.
Even then, Howard is on pace for a great season. If he continues this path, Howard will finish about 223-for-312 with 2,995 yards and 29 touchdowns by the end of the regular season (12 games). Should Ohio State make the Big Ten Championship and play in three CFP games, Howard is on pace for a 3,994-yard, 38-touchdown season off 298-of-416 passing.
Oh, and Ohio State’s quarterback has four rushing touchdowns thus far. That’s already the most from a Buckeye quarterback since Justin Fields‘ five in 2020.
Ridiculous Weapons Out Wide
Three of the top seven receivers will suit up for this game.
Jeremiah Smith has kicked off his freshman season and is on his way to shattering every freshman receiving record for Ohio State. In his first five games at the college level, Smith has hauled in 23 passes for 453 yards and six touchdowns. On the ground, he’s run the ball twice for 33 yards with a touchdown as well. He’s already the do-it-all receiver in the Ohio State offense. He can stretch the defense over the top on one play. On the next, he can take a screen 70 yards for an improbable touchdown.
Emeka Egbuka came back to Ohio State to bolster his NFL Draft standing as well as help Smith and the rest of the young receivers come into their own. He is already within striking distance of last year’s disappointing mark and is more akin to his 2022 breakout. The talented slot receiver has 30 receptions for 433 yards for five touchdowns. Against Iowa, he scored three times, reminding the college football year that he was still a great receiver.
Tez Johnson leads the way for Oregon, just like last year. The talented Troy transfer is on the way to backing up last year’s 1,182-yard, 10-touchdown breakout season. Through five games, Johnson is seventh in the Big Ten with 395 yards and five touchdowns. He was held in check against Boise State with three catches for negative-one yards. In those other four games, he took over with 40 catches for 396 yards and five scores.
Many believed Evan Stewart to be the guy to step up next to Johnson. To this point, that receiver has been Traeshon Holden. The former Alabama wideout was a decent weapon for his two teams over the last three seasons. Last year was his breakout with 452 yards and six touchdowns. Through five games, however, Holden has 274 yards and three touchdowns off 19 catches. He’s putting up 54.8 yards per game, by far a career-best.
Run That Ball
The Big Ten is home to a ridiculous amount of running back talent.
The fifth-leading rusher in the conference is Jordan James for the Ducks. He had to take over after Bucky Irving went to the NFL and he’s stepped up in a massive way. He was the second option last year (but led the Pac-12 with 7.1 yards per carry) and is the go-to back this year. Through five games, he’s run the ball 88 times for 552 yards and five touchdowns. Oregon leans on him and he ran the ball at least 20 times in each of the last two games.
The talented junior running back is one of the best in the conference and could even be a legitimate NFL pick this Spring if he chose to make the leap.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is home to two backs destined for the NFL. TreVeyon Henderson has gotten the start in each game and leads the Big Ten with eight yards per carry. Right behind him (7.8 yards per carry) is Quinshon Judkins.
Judkins was a portal add that was well worth the money (allegedly). He’s tied for sixth-best in the conference with 468 yards and five touchdowns. What’s insane is that he has only 60 carries this year. Henderson has added 337 yards and four touchdowns off just 42 carries.
The Buckeyes have vastly improved the run game with Kelly calling plays and it’s significantly easier with two superstar backs.
Tune In
These two programs have met on the gridiron 10 times in history. While Ohio State took each of the first nine matchups, Oregon marched into Columbus in 2021 and beat the Buckeyes, 35-28.
This is just the fourth meeting between the two since the beginning of the BCS era and just the second time in the regular season.
NBC will broadcast the game from Eugene, Oregon at 7:30 EDT (4:30 PDT).
