While we all expected Ole Miss to roll in its opener, how it was done was somewhat surprising. In fact, after about the first ten minutes of the opener, you likely felt bad for the opponent, as Furman got crushed 76-0. They were outmanned in a major way. But now the Rebels continue their non-conference slate in Week Two. And while it isn’t one of the more exciting games of the slate, this weekend does give us Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee State.
With no disrespect to Furman or MTSU, this certainly isn’t the toughest non-conference stretch we’ve ever seen from a Power Four program. In all honesty, it’s relatively weak. And while the Rebels schedule gets tougher, their goal right now is to avoid a letdown that could lead to a massive upset.
Against Furman, they played as if they were making a statement. Can they continue that trend this weekend against the Blue Raiders? It will be only the second time these two schools have played each other. The first came in a 45-17 victory, back when Eli Manning was still in Oxford.
Will Jaxson Dart and the Rebels have the same success Manning did in 2001, or do they find themselves on upset alert?
What to Expect From Middle Tennessee State?
One thing to start with is that this is Derek Mason’s first year at the helm with MTSU. The former Vanderbilt coach made his way to Murfreesboro after stints at Auburn (2021) and Oklahoma State (2022). While at each school he served as the defensive coordinator. Now, he gets another head coaching gig, so what does he make of it?
First, Mason won’t be judged on the outcome of this game. But they’d still love to be competitive. And if there’s one thing we know about a Mason-led team, that competitiveness will have to come through defense. The problem is this one is that even if the MTSU defense has improved, they’re still going up against one of the best offenses in football. That doesn’t bode well in this one for the Blue Raiders.
Furthermore, in 2023, MTSU only managed four wins. This year, while the Blue Raiders beat Tennessee Tech in their opener, they were outgained in total yards by the Golden Eagles. If the Blue Raider defense is giving up numbers to Tennessee Tech, then what kind of success could a Lane Kiffin-led offense have? The answer: a lot of success for the Rebels offense.
On the other side of the ball, if there’s one thing Mason has struggled with in the past, it’s offense. While at Vanderbilt, the thing that ultimately seemed to get him fired was the failure to score points. And while maybe he’s improved in that aspect, and maybe MTSU eventually put up points, don’t expect it to be this weekend. The size and athleticism difference is real, and against a seemingly improved Rebel defense, expect that to stand out.
In the end, all of this likely adds up to a long day for Mason and MTSU.
What to Expect From Ole Miss?
On the opposite sideline, expect more of what you saw last weekend. The offense is going to be explosive, led by Dart. In the opener, he threw for 418 yards and five touchdowns, in barely a half of work. And now it looks as if he may have another piece at his disposal. Jordan Watkins didn’t play in the opener due to injury, but Kiffin sounds reasonably optimistic that he’ll be able to go this weekend.
With or without Watkins, expect Tre Harris to lead the way on the receiving end for the Rebels. Against Furman, Harris had eight receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns. And that’s before including Juice Wells and Caden Prieskorn as pass-catching options, as well.
Then, on the ground, they have Ulysses Bentley IV and Henry Parrish Jr. as primary running back options. Last week they split carries, with Bentley getting six touches, while Parrish got eight. That shouldn’t change much this week, as both guys are likely to get a decent number of carries, respectively. With the Blue Raiders having to learn a new system already, asking them to stop each layer of this Rebel offense is going to be a tall task.
For the Ole Miss defense, it starts up front. Against the Paladins, the Rebels gave up only 26 yards rushing on 30 carries. They also combined for four sacks. This weekend, expect more of that same crazed, aggressive pressure that comes with a Pete Golding defense. If they can create that pressure, it makes the secondary’s job much easier. And while MTSU is a better opponent than Furman, the talent gap is still sizable. The Blue Raiders may hit on a few individual plays, but longer, sustained drives are likely going to be hard to come by.
Ole Miss vs MTSU: Bottom Line and Prediction
While Mason may end up having success as a Blue Raider, that shift in system and culture takes time. Certainly, more than a few weeks, especially when competing against a top-10 team in the country. And sure, from a sheer numbers standpoint, last week’s demolition of a smaller program is going to be hard to top for the Rebels.
That being said, this one shouldn’t be much of a contest. The biggest question should end up being whether Kiffin takes his foot off the gas earlier this weekend than he did a week ago. If so, the Rebels should cruise to an easy win that probably looks more respectable in the box score. If not, then we could be in for another repeat of what they did to Furman in their opener. In the end, the answer likely falls somewhere in the middle of the two.
Ole Miss 58, MTSU 10
Aug 31, 2024; Oxford, Mississippi, USA
