The season is upon us! Real-deal, honest-to-goodness college football started up with a bang this past weekend. For Michigan football fans, the 2024 season preview is full of excitement and questions.
The Wolverines will certainly find answers along the way, but which queries will matter most as they begin the Sherrone Moore Era?
Can Michigan Overcome A Lack of Depth on the Defensive Line?
The forecast for Michigan’s starting defense in 2024 is possibly better than last year’s title-winners. The problem, however, is who’s behind them. Last year’s defensive line was able to stay fresh through 15 games due to heavy rotation. 2024 starters Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant swapped snaps with Kris Jenkins, Rayshaun Benny, and Cam Goode. The same goes for this year’s edges. Josaiah Stewart and Derrick Moore plugged in seamlessly when starters Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell needed breaks. Players along the line generally averaged 30-40 snaps per game.
This year, Graham and Grant in particular will have their stamina tested. In some games, they may be called upon to play upwards of 50-60 snaps. Early games against intimidating Texas and USC offenses run the risk of wearing down those defensive stalwarts. The butterfly effect: extra snaps in the front half of the season could wear out Michigan’s stars by the time they get to Columbus in late November.
Fall camp chatter has been positive around second-team pieces like Enow Etta, TJ Guy, and Trey Pierce. Benny is working back from an injury but could supply a near-starter’s amount of snaps when healthy. If Lou Esposito can round out the rest of his position group in the first quarter of the season, it bodes well for the harrowing Big Ten portion of the schedule. If not, Michigan will be asking the starting defensive line to put forth a herculean effort to maintain conference dominance.
Can Sherrone Moore and Kirk Campbell Unlock Alex Orji?
Sherrone Moore has been quite open about his Michigan football philosophy: SMASH. In 6-foot-2, 235-pound Alex Orji, he has a quarterback who can enact that philosophy with a boom.
You could plug Orji into the Wishbone and Wing-T offenses of yore and have a blast. As it is, Michigan under Jim Harbaugh was already one of the nation’s premier rushing attacks, both in terms of attempts and production. Still, that effectiveness was dependent on a credible passing game, capably provided by J.J. McCarthy over the past two years. McCarthy’s secret sauce was ball control – save for aberrant games against Bowling Green, Maryland, and the 2022 playoff against TCU, he was exceptionally turnover-averse.
Orji needs to find that same security if he wants to lock down the job. For Michigan’s run game to find continued success, they’ll need just as much from Orji’s arm as his legs. Despite Davis Warren flashing enough arm talent to keep things interesting, it sounds like the coaches think their best chance for success will be with Orji at the helm. He’ll have dependable safety blankets in Colston Loveland, Tyler Morris, and Semaj Morgan. If Campbell can establish the run, develop play-action threats, and find Orji quick and easy ways to get the ball to his playmakers, this offense could sizzle. If Orji’s passing is shaky and turnovers abound, things could get dicey.
Can Donovan Edwards Reach His Ceiling?
A near-five-star recruit coming out of high school, Donovan Edwards has been a frequent hype subject since arriving in Ann Arbor. While he hasn’t consistently lived up to that hype, he’s offered scintillating glimpses at his potential. Flip on the highlights from Michigan’s 2022 Buckeye-trouncing in Columbus, or the 2024 National Championship game, and watch Edwards shine.
No longer in program legend Blake Corum’s shadow, Edwards will try to shine more routinely across 12 games and a potential postseason run. In offseason interviews, Edwards (along with his coaches and teammates) has stressed maturity and growth as major factors in his return to school. Now a team captain, he has an opportunity to deliver on the promise of his considerable talents.
Much will depend on his new-look offensive line and new starting quarterback. While Michigan breaks in a fresh crop up front, Edwards will occasionally be asked to make something out of nothing. He’s shown the ability before – that first touchdown against the Huskies starts out as a surefire tackle-for-loss before Edwards switches lanes and hits a home run. He’ll also offer sure hands as a check-down option for Alex Orji. The ceiling is something like a Reggie Bush facsimile. That’s lofty, as Bush’s college highlights are superhuman but offer a high-water mark for Edwards to strive toward. He’s got a chance to be The Man. He’ll need to seize it for Michigan to make a fourth-consecutive college football playoff.
Can They Hold up Against the Schedule?
Texas, now a contender in the SEC, comes to town in Week Two. USC makes the trip two weeks later. Fellow Big Ten newcomers Washington and Oregon loom in the distance. The always-pesky Spartans will make things difficult, even in Year One for Jonathan Smith. Minnesota will look to avenge 2023’s 52-10 beatdown for the Brown Jug. Everyone has had November 30th in Columbus circled since the clock hit zeroes on the last edition of The Game.
Consider the context for Michigan’s outlook is that they reload their entire offense, trot out a new coach, and face a championship hangover. A pessimist’s view of the schedule could find five losses. Bump that to six if you consider mitigating factors like injuries and college football’s inescapable chaos (2007, anyone?). That means losses to Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State, at minimum. From there, squint and you can see additional losses to any of Washington, Michigan State, and Minnesota. A disappointing season.
Optimism, on the other hand, would tend towards a potential postseason berth in the new playoff system. Their away games are minimal cause for concern – Michigan only leaves Ann Arbor for trips to Seattle, Champaign, Bloomington, and Columbus. Home field advantage against Texas and Oregon in particular should be worth something. Michigan could lose up to three games and still feel good about this season. It all depends on which games those theoretical three end up being.
What’s The Final Record?
Concluding this Michigan football season preview looks like this. The probability suggests Michigan wins against Fresno State, Arkansas State, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Indiana, and Northwestern. That’s seven. USC’s offense is scary, but Lincoln Riley has yet to field a competent defense. Washington is reloading under Jedd Fisch and returns even less than their Championship game counterparts. With both teams traveling from the West Coast, they lean towards wins. That’s nine. Texas and Oregon are tossups, and it’s reasonable to project a split between the two.
That’d mean one loss heading into Columbus with everything on the line. All things considered, it’s hard to project the finale as a Michigan win with all the talent Ryan Day returns. Still, the nature of a loss to Ohio State is important, to be sure. A blowout is hard to defend; a close game bodes well for the future. If they can get there healthy, show signs of evolution on offense, and unearth some depth pieces on defense, that’s a successful 2024.
10-2 with a shot at the playoff.
