Seven Power Five teams still have yet to record a conference win as we kick off college football in November. Two of these come from the Big 12, but come Saturday evening, there will only be one. The UCF Knights make the trip north to Cincinnati for a battle between former American Conference powerhouses. Both have had obvious struggles in the first year of Big 12 play; UCF stands with a record of 3-5 overall, while Cincinnati is 2-6. Interestingly enough, both teams’ victories all came at the start of the season. The Knights are on a five-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is on a six-game skid. It’s a very important one for these two teams and the trajectory of the programs in this new conference. Here’s a closer look into the matchup.
Familiar Foes
Both of these teams were members of the AAC from 2013 to 2023. Of those 10 seasons, UCF or Cincy won six conference titles. These were the two best teams in the league, which earned both Big 12 invitations. The series between the two is tied 4-4, and the two have shared some great games.
One of the most remembered games for Cincinnati fans in recent years was the 2019 win over UCF at Nippert Stadium. True Freshman Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner jumped a route and took an interception to the house as the ‘Nip at Night’ crowd erupted. An iconic night that shifted the program and catapulted it to new heights for the next several years.
It’s easy to think about fond memories like those when the season is persisting the way it is for Cincinnati right now. But the team must get a win in conference play. There’s a very real chance that the loser of this game heads into 2024 still without a Big 12 win. Here are some things to know for Cincinnati to avoid that fate and get the conference win monkey off its back.
Run, Run, and More Running
Both of these teams are going to run the ball until the sun goes down. They both sit at the very top of the country in rushing yards per game; UCF is sixth-ranked with 224 yards per game, while Cincinnati is one spot behind with 222. Both will run it over 55% of the time.
RJ Harvey leads the Knights’ running game. He has 126 carries for 712 yards on the year, with six touchdowns to add. Harvey and Cincinnati’s Corey Kiner are seventh and eighth in the conference in total rushing yards. Johnny Richardson will also get his carries for UCF; he has just shy of 500 yards on the year.
Expect to see a lot of running in this one. It’s the strength of both teams; injuries for UCF and subpar play for Cincinnati at the quarterback position are forcing the run games to take precedence.
Plumlee and the Air Attack
Multi-sport star John Rhys Plumlee is finally healthy and under center again for the Knights. Plumlee has played in just five games this season, including the first two wins of the year in weeks one and two. He then played sparingly in the week seven loss to Kansas but was full-go in the two most recent games for UCF. Plumlee has 1,100 yards, eight touchdowns, and seven interceptions this year. Although he is capable of much more than that. He’s a dual-threat, athletic quarterback who also has over 300 yards on the ground this season.
Senior wide receivers Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson are the go-to pass catchers. Baker has 29 receptions for 585 yards and five scores, while Hudson has 26 for 562 and four scores. Xavier Townsend and tight end Randy Pittman are also threats in the passing attack.
The Knights’ Defense
It’s already been mentioned that both of these teams like to run, but how do they stop the opposing run game? Well, Cincinnati comes in at 42nd in the country, giving up 128 yards rushing a game. As for UCF, it sits at 130 out of 133. It gives up 225 rushing yards per game.
UCF’s secondary has been fairly solid this season, giving up just about 200 yards per game to opposing passers. Defensive backs Nikai Martinez and Quadric Bullard have 33 and 27 tackles, respectively. They both also have an interception this year.
The defense as a whole is led by linebacker Jason Johnson, who has 72 tackles. Next most are fellow linebacker Walter Yates III and defensive lineman Lee Hunter, with 42 each. Hunter adds three sacks to his stats.
Overall, the UCF defense is in the bottom quarter of the country. It gives up 32 points per game and forces 0.9 turnovers per game. This is as much of a get-right spot for the Cincinnati offense as there will be this season against the UCF defense.
Keys to the Game
Copy and Paste the Run Game
Running back Myles Montgomery has come on nicely over the last two games with over 190 yards and three scores on just 18 carries. He’s been a nice lightning to Corey Kiner’s thunder. It’s been mentioned how much this UCF defense struggles against the run. Cincinnati has major quarterback concerns, with Emory Jones right now continuing to struggle. It should be expected to see backup Brady Lichtenburg get significant time in this game as coach Scott Satterfield looks to spark the offense. The run game carrying the load in this one will make life easier for whoever is under center.
Stand Firm Against the Opposite
This game is full of guys who can run it. UCF boasts of a top-five rushing attack in the country across several metrics. Cincinnati is stellar against the run, allowing just 128 yards per game. Last week was a very disappointing performance as Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon ran for 271 on this Cincy defense. The focus all week has likely been on stacking the box and stopping this elite UCF run game. Dontay Corleone, Jowon Briggs, and the guys up front will need their best on Saturday.
Win the Turnover Battle
These teams have similar struggles when it comes to turnovers. They both rank in the bottom 30 for giveaways and takeaways per game. On average, both teams have a negative turnover margin weekly. The winner of this one will likely have won the turnover battle.
Only One Comes Out Alive (not winless)
On Saturday night, at about eight o’clock, there’s only going to be one winless team in the Big 12. It’s a huge benefit for Cincinnati to be at home in this one against UCF. However, the Bearcats still come in as three-and-a-half-point underdogs at home. It won’t be on the radar for many college football watchers around the country, but it’s an important one for these programs going forward.
