With “Rivalry Week” upon us we have a huge game in Columbus this weekend. Michigan plays archrival Ohio State in what is shaping up to be a national quarter-final. There is one weekend of true regular season action remaining, so here are the LastWordOnCollegeFootball Bowl Projections Week 12.
College Football Playoff
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson
National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Ohio State
No change up top for me, or the CFP Committee. If Ohio State beats Michigan, I think they are in no matter who wins the Big Ten.
Oklahoma can make a playoff case if they win Bedlam over Oklahoma State.
Washington and Colorado will have a shot if one of them wins the Pac-12.
Penn State will make for an interesting scenario if they win the Big Ten. Wisconsin’s overall body of work seems more playoff friendly. Either team winning arguably the best conference will make the committee’s job much harder.
Ohio State and Clemson will be the best one-loss teams if they win out.
There will be one spot for three conference champions from the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12, provided my theory that Ohio State is in even without a Big Ten title.
New Years Six Bowls
Rose Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Michigan vs. Colorado
Sugar Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Capital One Orange Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Louisville vs. Penn State
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
At Large vs. At Large
Washington vs. Western Michigan
Explanation
Colorado took care of Washington State, and gets reeling Utah at home this week. The Buffaloes can clinch a Pac-12 title game appearance.
Either team from the Pac-12 North may be favored on a neutral field, but Colorado’s momentum, a hungry (well traveling) fan base, and the confidence in having beaten Washington State will propel them to the Rose Bowl as the true Pac-12 champ.
A rematch with Michigan with a healthy Sefo Liufao at quarterback will be quite the draw in Pasadena.
Florida has locked up the SEC East and gets Alabama in the conference championship game.
The Gators may hurt their cause for the Sugar Bowl if they are blown out by the Tide. Tennessee can finish with a better record than Florida if the Gators lose their last two at Florida State and versus Alabama.
Bowl Season Projections
Outback Bowl
Big Ten vs. SEC
Nebraska vs. Texas A&M
TaxSlayer Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Arkansas vs. Georgia Tech
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Auburn vs. Florida State
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Iowa vs. Florida
Hyundai Sun Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12
UNC vs. Utah
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Kansas State vs. Georgia
Arizona Bowl
Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
New Mexico vs. Idaho
Valero Alamo Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Oklahoma State vs. USC
Belk Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Wake Forest vs. Kentucky
Birmingham Bowl
AAC vs. SEC
Tulsa vs. Ole Miss
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
TCU vs. LSU
Foster Farms Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Indiana vs. Stanford
Russell Athletic Bowl
ACC vs. Big 12
Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten
Pitt vs. Northwestern
Cactus Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Baylor vs. Colorado State *
Holiday Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Minnesota vs. Washington State
Military Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
Memphis vs. Miami (FL)
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Big Ten vs. C-USA
Vanderbilt ** vs. UT San Antonio
Camping World Independence Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Boston College ** vs. South Carolina
Quick Lane Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Army * vs. Maryland
St. Petersburg Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
South Florida vs. North Texas **
Hawai’i Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Old Dominion vs. Hawai’i
Dollar General Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Toledo vs. Troy
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
AAC vs. Big 12
Navy vs. Texas **
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
C-USA vs. MAC
Southern Mississippi vs. Ohio
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
MAC vs. Mountain West
Central Michigan vs. Wyoming
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. Mountain West
BYU vs. Air Force
Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
AAC vs. C-USA
Temple vs. Western Kentucky
Miami Beach Bowl
AAC vs. MAC
Houston vs. Eastern Michigan
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State
AutoNation Cure Bowl
AAC vs. Sun Belt
Central Florida vs. South Alabama
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Miami (OH) vs. Arkansas State
Las Vegas Bowl
Mountain West vs. Pac-12
San Diego State vs. Arizona State
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Louisiana Tech vs. Boise State
* = Replacement team
** = APR (Academic Progress Rate) waiver
Explanation
Six-win Army and Hawai’i will be in ahead of the 5-7 APR teams. Army has two FCS wins, but will likely finish 6-6 after the Army-Navy Game, as they currently sit at 6-5.
Hawai’i looks headed for 6-7. With a win in their finale versus Massachusetts, the Warriors would get that sixth win. The Mountain West will want Hawai’i in their de facto home bowl game to face Conference USA.
Boston College and Texas will slide in at the bottom of the ACC and Big 12, respectively. Texas was on track for a traditional bowl game, but their stunning loss to Kansas puts them on track for a 5-7 finish.
North Texas and Vanderbilt fill in the APR teams. Ideally these teams would switch spots for more competitive bowl games.
The Heart of Dallas Bowl will not want to match up two teams from C-USA, so Vanderbilt replaces the Big Ten. The Mean Green will head to St. Petersburg.
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