We’re nearly halfway through the 2016 College Football season, as it’s now week 6. This is a big rivalry week for Texas and Oklahoma as they face off in the Red River Rivalry, the same is true for Florida State as the Seminoles travel down I-95 for a rekindling of their rivalry with Miami. Key SEC games this week include Arkansas looking to knock off Alabama, and Texas A&M and Tennessee squaring off in a battle of unbeaten teams. The PAC-12 South will be given further clarity as Colorado squares off with USC.
Our expert panel of Steen Kirby, Yesh Ginsburg, John Bava, and Mike Loveall are on hand to offer their previews and predictions. Yesh leads the way through the first five weeks with his picks.
Texas vs. #20 Oklahoma (Saturday 12:00 P.M.)
Line: Oklahoma by 10.5* *(Lines as of Monday afternoon)
Steen: Oklahoma was cruising over TCU, but their defense let the Horned Frogs back into the game and they ended up with just a 6 point scoreboard win. That type of inconsistency has been a drag on the Sooners all season and now they will face off with Texas, who got a marquee win over the their rivals last year, and now have a must win game this year. Charlie Strong is trying to get things right and save his job, even though it may be too late. The Longhorns can score, but their defense has given up 40+ three times this season, and I don’t think they will get enough stops to win. Oklahoma will win and remain in the Big 12 title race. Oklahoma 45, Texas 28
Yesh: Texas was the darling of the season after Week 1, but that shine has worn off. This game was a shocker last year, but the Sooners are just so much more talented than the Longhorns right now. Except a blowout as Oklahoma is thirsty for revenge. Oklahoma 42, Texas 17
John: The lead-up to this year’s edition of the Red River Rivalry resembles those of recent years with Oklahoma installed as favorites. It’s emblematic of how relatively down the Texas Longhorns program has been over that time. With the team at 2-2 and coming off back-to-back losses, third-year head coach Charlie Strong is beginning to feel the heat.
It’s the defensive side of the football that has really ailed the Horns in 2016. The team ranks 87th in total defense, 105th in pass defense and has forced one turnover all year. It led to Strong demoting defensive coordinator Vance Bedford after last week’s 49-31 loss to Oklahoma State.
That’s a problem against Oklahoma who loves to sling it around the field. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is top 15 nationally in completion percentage (67.2 percent) and quarterback rating (168.12). But the Sooners’ run game has struggled to protect the football. Their five fumbles is tied for 104th in the nation.
If Texas can slow down OU’s potent passing attack and start registering some takeaways, they stand a chance at upsetting the Sooners for the second straight year. Otherwise, it’s going to be a long day for the Burnt Orange. Oklahoma 31, Texas 24
Mike: Even with Oklahoma’s disappointing out-of-conference start to the season, they still control their own destiny in the Big 12. Texas, meanwhile, had a great start with a win against Notre Dame and has since lost twice, prompting the Texas AD to publicly question Charlie Strong’s job security. Texas is much improved, but they still don’t have the talent across the board that the Sooners have. Look for Stoops & Company to get things back on track and avenge last year’s Red River Rivalry flop in convincing style. Oklahoma 38, Texas 23
#9 Tennessee at #8 Texas A&M (Saturday 3:30 P.M.)
Line: TAMU by 6.5
Steen: Tennessee came back in the second half against Florida, and got a final second miracle to beat Georgia. Now they have their toughest test of the season thus far against fellow SEC undefeated Texas A&M. The Vols have found some offense with a mixed attack, but the defense is still a little banged up and has shown some holes. Texas A&M has ridden a strong attack on both sides of the ball from unranked to the top 10 halfway through the season. The Aggies are very good, and matchup with Tennessee’s skill position players well. The key will be home field advantage and TAMU’s front seven bothering Dobbs and creating mistakes. I don’t expect another miracle for big orange. Texas A&M 35, Tennessee 24
Yesh: I really don’t know what to make of either of these two teams. Both have great potential and neither seems to be able to play well for 60 minutes. I think Tennessee has the better potential with its talent, but Texas A&M is more consistent. Texas A&M 24, Tennessee 17
John: There might not be a more enigmatic team in college football than Tennessee. Twice in a row have the Volunteers trailed big to SEC opponents in the first half only to stage a comeback and come out on top in the end. The most recent example was a thrilling 34-31 win over Georgia that came via a last second Hail Mary from quarterback Josh Dobbs.
The absence of several key players due to injury for both teams could have an impact. The home-standing Aggies could be without receivers Speedy Noil and Rick Seals-Jones. Meanwhile, the Vols have already ruled linebackers Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Darrin Kirkland, Jr. out for the game.
This is the second straight road game against a ranked team for Tennessee. Somehow, someway, they escaped with a victory last week. In front of what should be a raucous 12th Man at Kyle Field in College Station might be where the luck runs out. Texas A&M 38, Tennessee 31
Mike: 170 years ago, 30,000 Tennesseans answer President Polk’s call to go to Texas and fight to defend Texas. That’s how Tennessee got the nickname “Volunteers.” Saturday, about that same number of Vols fans will travel to College Station while the 85 Tennessee players try to defend their undefeated season against the best team in Texas. These two teams are very similar – strong second half teams, versatile offenses with mobile quarterbacks, and athletic defenses. Tennessee is banged up, and will again be without their two starting linebackers. That could spell trouble against a talented Aggie offense. Is Tennessee a team of destiny, or is this the year Texas A&M puts together a full 12-game resume? Tennessee 34, Texas A&M 31
#21 Colorado at USC (Saturday 4:00 P.M.)
Line: USC by 4.5
Steen: Colorado put up 4 scores in their only loss to a very good Michigan team, and have scored 40+ in the rest of the wins. No matter how the rest of the season shapes out, the Buffs look set to head back to a bowl game, and are contenders in a conference title race for the first time since joining the PAC-12. Once a marquee program, Colorado is now one of the second tier programs in the conference, but they are in the drivers seat to win the PAC-12 South and play for a New Year’s Six bowl berth. USC has once again been a mess this year, looking awful in their three losses, and quite comfortable in their two wins. The Trojans have all the talent, but Colorado deserves more respect, and I’m going with the boys from Boulder to exploit a shaky USC defense and win. Colorado 49, USC 42
Yesh: I don’t know what to make of USC at all this year. The talent is there; it always is. The Trojans just don’t seem to be able to put it together on the field. Meanwhile, Colorado is the country’s most surprising team this year. I don’t know how they got out of the Pac 12 basement so quickly, but this team is quality. Colorado 31, USC 28
John: For the first time since they joined the Pac-12, Colorado is a relevant program. The Buffaloes are 2-0 in conference play and ranked for the first time since 2005 after a 47-6 blowout win over Oregon State. That said, Vegas doesn’t have a lot of confidence in their chances at LA Memorial Coliseum this weekend.
Both teams have been the beneficiaries of stellar quarterback play from players who weren’t starting in week one. Steven Montez replaced an injured Sefo Liufau for the Buffs against Michigan in week three and hasn’t looked back. The redshirt freshman has averaged 313 yards and thrown three touchdowns apiece in his two starts. For USC, Sam Darnold has also started the past two games, replacing a struggling Max Browne. Against Arizona State last week, he threw for 352 yards and three scores in the 41-20 win.
Colorado is riding high, but USC also has a bit of positive momentum since Darnold took the reins of the offense. Look for the Trojans to get back to .500 and move to 11-0 all time against the Buffaloes. USC 30, Colorado 23
Mike: Is there anyone else besides Colorado that can lay claim to the title of Surprise Team of the Year? In Colorado’s four wins, they’ve averaged 47 points per game while only yielding 14.5 points to opponents. They hung with Michigan for a half, and while that doesn’t earn many points, it’s better than USC’s performance against Alabama. Everyone expects Colorado to fold and be the same old Colorado, including USC. The Pac 12 is the most even conference from top to bottom in college football, and head coach Mike McIntyre has a bunch of unheralded players executing at a high level in Boulder. Meanwhile, there’s nothing but questions and hot seats in Los Angeles. Here’s to chaos in college football. Colorado 41, USC 35
#1 Alabama at #16 Arkansas (Saturday 7:00 P.M.)
Line: Alabama by 14
Steen: Bret Bielema would love to shake up the SEC West and knock off big brother Alabama, but I still don’t think he has the talent to beat a Crimson Tide team that plays a similar tough style of football, but with better players. Alabama hasn’t messed around this year, and the Ole Miss team that gave them fits is nothing like this Arkansas team. Despite this being a road game for Bama, I could honestly see it getting ugly fast. Alabama 31, Arkansas 14
Yesh: I don’t think that Arkansas can hang with Alabama. At all. The talent just isn’t there across the board and the defense will get worn down by Alabama’s strong line. Still, 14 points is a big spread and Arkansas has the offensive talent to spread the field and score some points. I’ll guess that Arkansas keeps this within two touchdowns, if only to avoid getting embarrassed at home. It also helps that Alabama seems to start slowly far too often this season. Alabama 27, Arkansas 14
John: It’s not often that a team comes into a road game against a top 20 opponent as a two-touchdown favorite, but Alabama isn’t most teams. The top-ranked Crimson Tide continue to roll under Nick Saban and are expected to be CFP participants at season’s end for the third straight year. And they look to leave Fayetteville with their tenth straight win over the Razorbacks.
Arkansas will look to pull off the upset through their passing game. Junior quarterback Austin Allen leads the SEC in quarterback rating (167.69) and has thrown 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions. And the Tide’s defense showed vulnerability to the pass against Ole Miss when Chad Kelly threw for 421 yards and three touchdowns.
This is going to be one of those games that Lee Corso would commonly describe as “closer than the experts think.” However, Alabama escapes this one with the W to remain unbeaten. Alabama 38, Arkansas 33
Mike: The last two seasons Arkansas has played Alabama close. That, and 14 points at home, will cause a lot of fans to take a look at this game. But there’s a lot of things different this year. Alabama isn’t coming off a big game this year like the two previous years (Georgia ’15, Ole Miss ’14) and Arkansas doesn’t have as dominant of a run game as they’ve had in the past nor do they have Brandon Allen calling the shots at quarterback. Arkansas is good, but to move up in the SEC West, you’ve got to be more than good. Alabama 35, Arkansas 17
#23 Florida State at #10 Miami (Saturday 8:00 P.M.)
Line: Miami by 3
Steen: FSU and Miami have played in tropical storms and hurricanes before, so I doubt this game is going to get cancelled or moved. Mark Richt is eager to prove he has an ACC, and national contender on his hands at Miami, while FSU is reeling from defensive struggles to start the season, and trying to extend their winning streak against Miami that has now lasted more than 6 seasons. This is a rivalry game, with a lot of bad blood and close friendships, the Noles are out of it this season, but will still play hard, especially Miami native Dalvin Cook, their star running back. Miami QB Brad Kaaya is looking for redemption against the Seminoles at home after dropping all of his games as a starter against FSU. The Hurricanes can run the ball, and I don’t think the Seminoles are going to be able to pull their defense together in time to fix the gaping holes that Louisville, and North Carolina exposed. Look for Miami to put themselves back into the national discussion after years in the wilderness with this primetime win. Miami 42, FSU 24
Yesh: Look, Florida State’s defense has problems. That’s been pretty clear this year. But Miami hasn’t yet shown an ability to throw the ball consistently this season (even with Brad Kaaya at quarterback), and Florida State won’t fold in this game. The Seminoles still have more talent than just about any team in the country. I just can’t imagine them starting 3-3. Florida State 35, Miami 28
John: Not since 2010 has Miami gone into their annual hate fest against Florida State with an advantage in the polls. But that’s exactly the situation the tenth-ranked Hurricanes find themselves in heading into Saturday’s home date with 23rd ranked FSU. First-year head coach Mark Richt certainly appears to have his alma mater heading in the right direction.
The marked improvement defensively has been a key component in the Canes solid start. Last year, Miami finished the season ranked 69th nationally in total defense. But through four games in 2016, they’re giving up 253.3 yards per game which is seventh best in the nation. Florida State, meanwhile, has regressed on that side of the football. The Noles are currently 94th in total defense after finishing 2015 ranked 19th.
In a game where the conditions could be a real issue with Hurricane Matthew in the area, being sound on defense might inevitably be the difference. With that in mind, expect Miami to erase a six-game losing streak against their rivals from Tallahassee. Miami 24, Florida State 17
Mike: Don’t look now, but the ACC is making a case as the best conference in college football. Three Top 10 teams, including tenth-ranked Miami, and three more teams in the Top 25, including 23rd ranked FSU. The Seminoles have a ton of talent, especially on the offensive line, but are coming off a loss to North Carolina that was preceded by the thrashing at Louisville two weeks prior. This is a team that desperately needs a good win. Miami is still a team fighting for recognition, with wins against Appalachian State and Georgia Tech. A win over FSU will certainly validate Miami as legitimate top 10 team. This is the start of a four game stretch of FSU, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Notre Dame. If the Hurricanes make it through that stretch unblemished, the ACC Title Game could be a CFP play-in. Mark Richt, Brad Kaaya, and an under-appreciated ‘Canes defense, led by Manny Diaz, gets the ball rolling in Coral Gables. Miami 31, Florida State 24
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