Once again Mississippi State fell into the second column of the won/lost totals. They went 2-9, 0-7 in the SEC, after losing to Missouri 39-20 in Starkville last Saturday. Allowing the Tigers to beat the 6.5-point spread, the Bulldogs once again, squandered opportunities against Mizzou, early and throughout the game. State’s defense performed better than in past games, laying down a few easy alley-oops for the Dawgs’ offense to dunk. But a turnover early, and numerous whiffs on third down, spelled the end of momentum, and chances to come away with their first SEC win. Now, they face arch-nemesis Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. If they intend to salvage the season in any way, the Bulldogs will need an angel on their sideline against the Rebels on Saturday.
In this final episode of the Dawgs’ 2024 drama, or tragedy as the case may be, winning Saturday will make up for the worst season since 2003. It’s been that way since the series originated in 1932. The Rebels have some making-up to do as well. They blew their chances for the SEC playoff, and the 12-team national CFP with a one-touchdown loss to Florida last weekend.
A Weird Rivalry
Mississippi State and Ole Miss have played each other 90 times since the series’ inception. The Rebels lead the series with 56 wins, 30 losses, and four ties. Interestingly enough, the home and away records are quite similar with the Bulldogs losing 13 games each in both Starkville and Oxford.
The game has been played on Thanksgiving 23 times and has come to be associated with the holiday. However, this season’s Egg Bowl will be played on the day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday, only the second time that has happened in the last eight years.
Most Mississippians would prefer playing on any day other than Thanksgiving. It cuts into family time during a normally tranquil holiday, other than typical family disputes. The other reason is that many Mississippi families are divided with members on both sides. Watching the game can get heated, and tempers can get out of hand, thus ruining the holiday.
An example is 34-year-old Mason and Preston Tilghman, identical twins. They grew up cheering for the Bulldogs. But, Mason decided to attend Ole Miss and joined the band. Preston, by the way, plays in the Bulldog band. On one Egg Bowl in Oxford, the Ole Miss band director came up to Mason and told him that he had just seen him in a Mississippi State band uniform and to explain himself. But it goes deeper than that. In an interview with Jackson’s Clarion-Ledger, Mason said that the game on Thanksgiving is less like a holiday. “I feel like (the rivalry in our family) is a lot more heated now,” Mason said. “It drives my brother crazy that I love Ole Miss as much as I do now. He would have never imagined it.” Thus, most Mississippians would prefer any day but Turkey Day.
Yes, There is a Game
Ole Miss is favored to win this contest by 26.5 points. But, when it comes to the Bulldogs, the oddsmakers have been wrong more times than right this year. MSU has never been favored in an SEC matchup this year, but again, this is the Egg Bowl, a game where outcomes can’t always be predicted and anything can happen.
From a practical point of view, things have surely changed for the Rebels. Less than a week ago, they were poised to be a contender in the SEC Championship. That alone gave them the prospect of being a consideration for the new 12-team CFP. Despite their loss to Florida, a big win against State, running up the score, could still attract the committee, especially if some of the top-ranked teams go down, as in week 13.
One big thing going for UM, and not for the Dawgs is third-down conversions. State’s defense has allowed conversion of third downs on 70 of 147 third downs, or 48%, ranking last in the SEC. Ole Miss ranks No. 5 in the conference at 32%. Also, Mississippi State ranks 122nd out of 134 FBS teams in scoring defense, allowing 5 touchdowns per game.
The same is true on offense. Quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. has not been able to convert third downs to keep offensive drives moving. The progress shown against Texas, Georgia, and Texas A&M seemed to disappear in subsequent games.
The State head coach was particularly concerned about defense. “I didn’t like that they were on the field as long as they were,” Lebby said. “But you’ve seen spurts of us playing good team defense. We have not been able to sustain (it). I put that partially on us offensively not being able to continue to hold momentum at times. We found ways to create it at times, and then we don’t keep it.”
Lane and Lebby
Both head coaches have a history of working together. After leaving UCF, under Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel, Lebby joined Kiffin’s staff as offensive coordinator. He formed a formidable offense that rose to among the top 10 offenses in the country. After two years, Lebby left for the same position at Oklahoma with similar results.
When Lebby accepted the job at Mississippi State, Kiffin tweeted an image of Lebby riding on Kiffin’s shoulders, asking how did the new Dawg coach get his job. Lebby initially called it childish and laughingly dismissed the jibe. But, after this Egg Bowl Week, has Kiffin been similarly playful? “We’ve traded texts throughout the season and had communication,” Lebby said in his Monday press conference. “As we’ve gotten into it, no, not this week. He will continue to find ways to have fun on social (media) and that’s who he’s always been and who he will always be. But no, I haven’t had a conversation this week.”
Lebby is taking the high road and Kiffin is keeping it pretty tight to the vest approaching game time. We may see shenanigans closer to game time, especially from Kiffin.
Are We There Yet?
Many of the Bulldogs will be experiencing their first Egg Bowl and may need to understand the significance. “I do want our guys to have a heightened awareness and understanding of what this game means,” Lebby said. “It is a huge rivalry and that matters in a big way. I don’t take it for granted. I think it’s important for our guys to understand that. They understand the history of it but they also have to make sure they’re not getting emotionally hijacked by the energy and the atmosphere and what goes into it. We have the ability to go focus really small and go execute.”
After such a dismal season, some of the players may be thinking about where they want to be next year. The transfer portal is a huge unknown at this point, as to who will be leaving or staying. That’s what makes the college head coach’s job more challenging, to say the least. At least for one more game, a game that could make or break a team’s season, the hope is just that, a win to last the rest of the year.
