Two traditional powers will look to finish their regular seasons on a high note when LSU hosts Oklahoma on Saturday night. Although neither team is satisfied with their season’s results, they’re both coming off wins. The Tigers were able to stop an angst-riddled three-game losing streak last week with a win over Vandy. Meanwhile, Oklahoma shocked the college football world after beating Alabama soundly. If the college football world has taught us anything this year, it’s that the games are as unpredictable as ever. Nevertheless, we’ll offer our thoughts on how this game will play out.
LSU Hosts Oklahoma
The Venables Effect
One might wonder how a .500 team manhandled an Alabama team that beat Georgia and blew LSU away. It undoubtedly took a complete team effort, but it all started with defense. Brent Venables’ Sooners feature a stifling defense, but it doesn’t have eye-popping stats due to a lack of complementary football.
Every defense in America sets out to stop the run, and Oklahoma did so effectively in holding Alabama to 2.3 yards per carry. The Sooners’ front seven were extremely sound in their assignments, keeping Jalen Milroe under a yard per carry for the day. In fact, Alabama’s longest run of the day was only 11 yards. Oklahoma held Alabama’s leading running back to 45 yards. Well-timed stunts, superb linebacker play, and aggressive safety run support led to a dominant day for the Sooner defense.
Discipline in defense is great, but it takes talent to win the matchups within the game. Freshman defensive tackle Jayden Jackson is a disruptor up front. R Mason Thomas is a blur in pursuit from the defensive end position. Danny Stutsman leads a talented group of linebackers. Oklahoma is 15th in the nation in total defense, and it forces opposing offenses to earn every yard.
Attacking the Sooners
It’s safe to say that LSU’s 107th-ranked rushing attack has not exactly been a strength this year. However, the Tiger backs don’t dance in the backfield. It’s critical for Josh Williams and Caden Durham to be north/south runners against Oklahoma. The Sooners have the athletes to run sideline to sideline and are sure tacklers. The LSU backs must continue to avoid losing yardage and get the offense into manageable situations on third down. The Tiger offense is fifth in the country in third-down conversions – it can take it from there.
Freshman cornerback Eli Bowen was outstanding last week, getting an interception and holding Ryan Williams (who’s 17 by the way) to two catches. Bowen is trusted enough to travel with the opposing team’s best receiver, so it will be interesting to see who Oklahoma considers LSU’s best receiver to be. Kyren Lacy leads the team in catches, but the offense has made a concerted effort to involve Aaron Anderson since Brian Kelly has gotten involved with the playcalling. Either way, Garrett Nussmeier must play within himself and avoid game-changing turnovers. Oklahoma is 0-5 this season when losing the turnover battle.
Jackson Vick
Ok, so maybe Jackson Arnold isn’t as talented a runner as Michael Vick, but he was good enough to gash Alabama for 131 rushing yards last week. The Oklahoma offense is an ongoing test of eye discipline with motion and multiple options for Arnold. Fortunately, the LSU defense is coming off its best game in terms of assignment football. Time will tell if the Tigers can remain sound in their assignments when playing against better athletes.
Arnold might be a more dynamic runner than Diego Pavia of Vandy, but he’s not a better quarterback. Another defensive key to the game for the Tigers is to take the quick passes away from Arnold. The sophomore quarterback hasn’t reached the level of proficiency at which he can get through multiple progressions to make an accurate throw. Oklahoma tends to give him quick passes and easy reads. The Sooner staff would actually run every down if it could. Arnold has yet to win an SEC game when making more than 11 passing attempts.
Regressing to the Mean
Last week, LSU’s defense held a good Vanderbilt team to roughly 300 total yards and had an 80% success rate on third-down conversions. Oklahoma had 50 carries and gained 257 yards on the same day. Both teams have had 10 other games that tell us these stat lines are unlikely to repeat themselves.
The Sooners will likely have more offensive success, specifically on the ground, than what LSU gave up last week. We expect the Oklahoma offense to make some plays but not to the tune of two players rushing for over 100 yards. Blake Baker’s defensive unit will be good enough to force Arnold to produce in the passing game, which will prove costly for the Sooners.
LSU 28, Oklahoma 24
