Unfortunately, the college football regular season is quickly approaching an end. The good news is that means we’ve almost reached the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. However, we’ve still got two weeks left, and there are plenty of intriguing matchups set to take place over that time. Saturday, Ole Miss vs Florida is one of the matchups that come to mind.
For Ole Miss, it’s a must-win. Due to looking like one of the best teams in the country over the past month, currently, they find themselves squarely in the mix to make the playoffs. But an inexcusable loss in their conference opener to Kentucky still hangs over their head, turning every week into a must-win for the Rebels.
On the Florida sideline, the stakes are smaller, but still important. The Gators are a win away from bowl eligibility. Sure, they’re likely to be able to get there next week with a win over rival Florida State, who still only has one win on the season. But they’d certainly rather get that win out of the way now. Especially because that would mean an upset victory over Ole Miss.
Ole Miss vs Florida: A Series History
The series between these two has been just about as close as it could be. In 21 matchups, the overall record sits at 10-10, with one tie, for both sides.
However, despite the close nature of the series, the Gators have won the past two meetings, and neither have been all that close. The last time the Rebels got a win in the series was all the way back in 2008. Many may remember that game because of Tim Tebow’s famous postgame speech following the upset loss.
Never forget Tim Tebow’s promise after Florida lost to Ole Miss in 2008 🗣️
The Gators would go on to win 10 straight games by double digits, including the national title vs. Oklahoma 🏈pic.twitter.com/PWtOz6QLE7
— 247Sports (@247Sports) August 23, 2023
Now, 16 years later, the Gators look to return the favor, as Ole Miss now comes to Gainesville as a top-10 team. Can Florida end the Rebels playoff hopes, or can Ole Miss stay afloat for yet another week?
What to Expect From Florida
The key for the Gators is going to be quarterback DJ Lagway. The dual-threat true freshman was the number three player in this past year’s class, including being the top-ranked quarterback. And it’s hard to deny that he’s lived up to the hype. After taking over following Graham Mertz’s season-ending injury, he’s been solid. In just three full starts, he’s averaging 313 yards per game. And despite not having great rushing numbers on the year, it’s well-known that he can make plays out of the pocket, as well.
The one concern is a hamstring injury he suffered in the first half of the Gators’ loss to Georgia. It also sidelined him for the loss to Texas the following week. He did finally return last week in a win over LSU. In the victory, he threw for 226 yards and a touchdown. Now, he’s set to take on what’s likely the best defensive front he’s seen, and it comes with a hamstring that may not be 100%.
Knowing that Florida’s offensive line could struggle against an aggressive Ole Miss front seven, Lagway is going to have to be able to make and extend plays, using his legs. If his hamstring holds up, there’s a good chance he can. If that hamstring proves to be a problem at all, it could mean a long day for the Gators.
A Return to The Swamp For Umanmielen
One of the anchors of the Rebels front seven is Princely Umanmielen. In his first season in Oxford after transferring from Florida, he has recorded 12 tackles for loss, including 9.5 sacks. Now, he returns to Gainesville for the first time since transferring.
Needless to say, it’s unlikely he receives much of a warm welcome from the Gator faithful. But regardless of the welcome he receives, he’s going to have to continue to be a vital part of the Ole Miss pass rush, especially if they plan on getting pressure on Lagway.
Ole Miss Keys to Success
It goes without saying that the Ole Miss defense is going to have to continue their solid play if they plan on getting the win on the road in The Swamp. But on the offensive side of the ball, they’ll be getting a welcome, and familiar face, back in the lineup. Wide receiver Tre Harris is available and set to play after missing multiple games with a lower-body injury. Despite missing over a month, Harris still leads the SEC in receiving.
The biggest question with this development is what it does for quarterback Jaxson Dart. Before the Harris injury, there was a lot of frustration with Dart, as it appeared he was much too reliant on Harris, and not getting anyone else involved. But since Harris has been out, that has changed. The tight ends have been more involved. Receivers Jordan Watkins and Cayden Lee have also become key parts of the offense.
Moving forward, the key for Dart and the Ole Miss offense has to be to continue what has led to success over the past three games. Continue to get everyone involved, and use the run as a way to ease up some of the opponent’s pass rush. If they do that, there’s a good chance they’ll have plenty of success against an inconsistent Florida defense.
Ole Miss vs Florida: The Bottom Line and Prediction
This game holds a bit of a strange feeling if you’re an Ole Miss fan. You have to feel confident in the team, and the way they’ve played over the past month or so. But there’s also concern, as they find themselves coming off a huge win over Georgia, and now travel to one of the most hostile environments in college football. In short, it’s a perfect spot for a letdown.
In the end, the Rebels squeak away with a win but expect it to be close. Expect both offenses to shine in The Swamp, with Lagway playing a great game for the Gators. But a late stop ends up sealing a huge win for Ole Miss, and they head back to Oxford one win away from a playoff berth.
Ole Miss 33, Florida 31
