LSU and Florida are at different stages of program rebuilds but have a lot in common. They share a heated rivalry that has often had national implications. Both teams have two-game losing streaks that include blowout losses last weekend. From a big-picture perspective, both teams have head coaches in desperate need of positive momentum. LSU needs to avoid moving backward after a 10-3 season last year. Florida hasn’t finished under .500 in two consecutive seasons in 46 years. As for Brian Kelly and his Tigers, there are three keys to the game for LSU to defeat Florida.
Three Keys for LSU at Florida
Discipline
LSU was outclassed in every aspect against Alabama last week, but inferior athleticism was exacerbated by undisciplined play. Once again, the Tigers were not gap-sound defensively. The safeties took terrible angles, managing to not even touch ball carriers while unblocked. The LSU run defense found so many ways to fall short that it was almost impressive. Regardless of the talent drop-off from starter to backup, at some point the LSU staff must consider sitting guys who continue to take on responsibilities outside of their own.
LSU must also be more disciplined avoiding penalties. The Swamp in Gainesville is a notoriously tough place to play. LSU’s highly acclaimed, mostly veteran offensive line has repeatedly garnered false starts and holding calls to put the Tiger offense off schedule. The last thing a struggling quarterback needs is first and 15 situations.
Run Game
The run game has been one of the most prominent issues for LSU both offensively and defensively. The Tigers could catch a break due to the health of Florida’s slippery freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. Although Lagway is listed as questionable for the game, he continues to “trend in the right direction”, according to head coach Billy Napier. Even if he plays against LSU, we don’t expect many called quarterback runs with Napier’s future riding largely on the quality of Lagway’s play for the next year.
Florida’s rushing attack is challenging with or without Lagway. Ja’Kobi Jackson has an exceptional blend of speed and power. Jadan Baugh is a battering ram who doesn’t even notice attempted arm tackles. The Gator running backs are talented and the scheme is creative. Offensive Coordinator Rob Sale, who is a Louisiana native, has a versatile rushing attack that doesn’t allow defenses to get comfortable. His counters, zone reads, and jet sweeps make it just as important for LSU to show discipline this week as it was last week.
Offensively, LSU had only 24 rushing attempts to Alabama’s 48 a week ago. Some opinions suggest that the attack wasn’t effective last week outside of a couple of outlier plays. We think Joe Sloan had some success with more eye candy (motion) and direct snaps. One thing is for sure; the LSU rushing attack will never be effective if the plays don’t exist. The past two weeks have proven that LSU can’t beat the better teams when the weight of the game is placed squarely on the quarterback. The Tigers need at least 30 attempts to take pressure off Garrett Nussmeier to carry the team. It’s now or never, as Florida is next to last in the SEC in rush defense allowing over 150 yards per game.
Turnovers
The third and possibly most important key to LSU against Florida is turnovers. At his best, Nussmeier is a risk taker who can thread the needle but force throws at times. At his worst, he is a liability at the position. Nussmeier has never been less confident his reads. His recent rash of interceptions has caused him to hesitate even when choosing the correct option based on what the defense gives him. Unfortunately, his lack of faith in his decision-making has affected his accuracy on throws that he can make in his sleep.
LSU can’t expect everything to suddenly click for its quarterback. But the staff can put him in a better position to succeed with complementary football and more diverse route combinations. Run threats or not, LSU must come up with play designs to get one-on-one coverage on deep shots. Defenders are squatting on underneath routes, because LSU hasn’t shown a willingness to throw deep lately. The LSU receivers have created less separation due to the predictable nature of the offense attempting to march down the field 10 yards at a time. A more varied attack will help Nussmeier to avoid picks.
On the other side of the ball, the Florida staff has done a good job of simplifying the reads for Lagway to compensate for his inexperience. His ability to run limits coverages in itself, but Sale consistently uses short passes and rollouts to increase Lagway’s comfort level and cut the field in half. While these efforts are helpful, they can’t replace experience. Lagway had an excellent game against Kentucky, but there were several ill-advised passes that he got away with. The Tigers must be ready to capitalize on the opportunities that he gives them.
Stakes of the Game
Both teams are reeling, but Florida’s AD has already spoken out on Napier’s job security for the 2025 season. The pressure is on Kelly and LSU to avoid a complete collapse. It’s important to prove that the players are still bought in at this point, but it’s also critical to prove that the Alabama game was a deviation from the mean. LSU was considered a playoff-worthy team only six quarters of football ago.
Is LSU the team that beat Ole Miss and dominated Texas A&M for a half? Or are the Tigers that didn’t belong on the same field with Alabama a more accurate representation? This game is the first step in determining that reality and getting fans back onto the bandwagon. If the Tigers can play disciplined, accumulate 30 rushes, and limit themselves to one turnover or less, they are well on their way to a positive step.
