With the second week of the College Football Playoff committee rankings, the speculation of what could be and with whom continues to grow. One thing is clear in the new drawdown. The ACC is outnumbered in the playoff rankings.
The Current Lineup
The top 12, which is the set number of playoff teams for this season, consists of five SEC schools, four Big 10 schools, one Big 12 school, one independent, and one ACC school. The four highest-rated conference champions are guaranteed their spots. If today were the final results, a hypothetical conference champion Miami would be the fourth team in, and the only ACC team to make it. A one-loss SMU team, currently sitting at #14, would be on the outside looking in.
The ACC Forecast
Of course, there are still three weeks of the regular season left to play out. But let’s say that SMU and Miami face each other in the ACC conference game. The Hurricanes just dropped from fourth last week to ninth this week after the moderately predictable loss to Georgia Tech. The conference would basically need Miami to win in order to hold on to the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion status. SMU is too far back and is even sitting behind potential Mountain West champion Boise State. The road would be too tough to traverse.
What of Clemson? After a loss to Louisville, the two-loss Tigers are 20th and even ranked one spot behind the three-loss Cardinals. If Clemson were to win out, get around and through any ACC tiebreak scenarios, and beat Miami in a conference championship game, is the committee really going to jump the Tigers up the 12-13 spots they would need to be one of the four highest-rated conference champions?
The Big 10 and SEC Numbers
The four Big 10 schools are all ranked in the top five in the latest poll. But of course, they are not going to finish that way. Undefeated Oregon looks like the decided favorite to finish in the top spot at least before the conference championship game. The Ducks, and Penn State, (ranked fourth), only have conference games left with teams outside the top 12. Ohio State and Indiana play each other in two weeks. In whatever direction the conference elimination “tournament “ plays out the Big 10 is likely to get all four of the teams in.
The SEC effectively has a bit of a round-robin to get through over the next three weeks, including the traditional late November cupcake non-conference game. But it is more and more conceivable that five SEC teams could make the playoffs.
The Big 12’s Case
Right now, the Big 12 would be best served by having BYU stay undefeated. A two-loss Colorado conference champion, currently ranked 17th, would have a lot of hill to climb. Even if it beats BYU in a conference championship, the Cougars would clearly not be the conference champs, and not guaranteed one of the four spots. But they would still have a better record and would still deserve to be ranked higher than a Big 12 conference champion Colorado. That would take Colorado out of one of the top four spots.
Looking Ahead
SMU’s only loss was by three points back in mid-September to the BYU team that is undefeated, ranked sixth, and one of the four highest-ranked potential conference champions. Yet, it could be enough to keep the Mustangs out.
The playoff committee has said for two weeks now that it looks at each week on its own merits. That could be unwelcome news for the ACC. Miami beats SMU for the conference title and Miami and no other ACC school gets in. The reverse happens and Miami drops too far down, and out of the top 12 and only SMU makes it. Both schools are now rooting for ACC affiliate Notre Dame to take a tumble in the last three weeks. It would test the willingness of the committee to leave a two-loss golden child out of the expanded playoffs and take two ACC schools.
