The 4-5 UCF Knights begin the final quarter of the 2024 season with a road trip to play the 6-2 Arizona State Sun Devils. The Knights need to win two of their last three games to become bowl-eligible. The game will take place on Saturday at 7:00 pm ET at Mountain America Stadium and air on ESPN2. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Rizky Road Business
In last week’s preview against Arizona, we discussed the coaching changes head coach Gus Malzahn made. He first fired defensive coordinator Ted Roof and elevated 2023 DC Addison Williams back up. He also announced he was replacing himself as the play-caller with offensive coordinator Tim Harris Jr. One wrinkle wasn’t known: replacing Jacurri Brown at quarterback with redshirt freshman Dylan Rizk. All three changes yielded strong results.
Teaming Harris up with Rizk as his quarterback allowed UCF to have a more traditional pocket passer. Rizk responded by connecting 80% of his passes for 294 yards, three touchdowns, and no turnovers. The Knights had the advantage of surprise on their side as the news about Rizk starting was kept under wraps all week and how Harris was going to call the game was a mystery. UCF also had the benefit of a friendly crowd at home. Now they go on the road to Tempe, Arizona and the crowd will be hostile. The Sun Devils coaching staff also has a game plus worth of film of Rizk to scout.
Who Are the Arizona State Sun Devils?
The Arizona State Sun Devils are a team that has defied the odds. The Big 12 media selected them to finish last, and they have done nothing but. At 6-2, Arizona State has secured itself as bowl-eligible, which is a remarkable turnaround over the previous few years. In 2018, the school hired Herm Edwards, which started a downward spiral that led to the school getting in trouble with the NCAA and having to forfeit wins in 2021 and 2022. Arizona State fired Edwards and hired Kenny Dillingham, who was offensive coordinator for Malzahn at Auburn in 2019. Dillingham had the challenge of weathering the NCAA storm and resetting the program. He did that in 2023 as the team struggled to a 3-9 record. This season, he and his Sun Devils surprised everyone.
Leading the way for the Sun Devils is running back Cam Skattebo. Skattebo is third in the Big 12 in rushing with 1,001 yards and second on the team in receiving with 404. Unfortunately, Skattebo was injured last week and while Dillingham is hopeful he will play, there is a possibility he does not and if he does, he won’t be anywhere near 100%. This puts more pressure on quarterback Sam Leavitt to carry the team. Leavitt, a redshirt freshman transfer from Michigan State, has been good, but overly reliant on Skattebo in the passing game. Outside of lead receiver Jordyn Tyson, someone is going to have to step up.
UCF’s Offense
Last week’s results proved that this is not a Gus Malzahn offense. UCF might be a run-first team with RJ Harvey in the backfield, but they showed a lot more balance as Rizk threw the ball 25 times in a low-risk situation. The Knights never trailed, so they were able to stick to their plan. Rizk’s 294 yards was a season-high for the Knights and his 80% completion rate was their best in Big 12 competition. His passes were crisp and he moved quickly through his progressions. The highlight throw of the day was a 40-yard dime of a touchdown pass to Jacoby Jones. Jones has had a hot hand over the last two games. He stepped into the lineup after Kobe Hudson went down with an early injury against BYU and had his first 100-yard game at UCF. Part of that was due to Rizk coming in during the fourth quarter and having immediate chemistry with Jones. Jones had another 100-yard game against Arizona and ended up being the top receiver in both games. Harvey continues to do Harvey things with his third straight 100-yard game. Harvey is third in the nation in rushing yards with 1,201 yards.
UCF Knights vs Arizona State Sun Devils Predictions
Last week, UCF rebranded as the Citronauts for their Space Game and dominated the Arizona Wildcats. UCF, with new QB Dylan Rizk and play-caller Tim Harris Jr, put together a very strong offensive performance. Coupled with a stifling defense limiting Arizona to five total rushing yards, the Wildcats became another UCF Space Game victim. This week, UCF travels to Tempe to play an Arizona State squad that is crossing its fingers that their star player Skattebo is going to play. The spread on the game is currently -2.5 for Arizona State. If Skattebo doesn’t play, the Sun Devils are not going to have enough offense to keep up with this new UCF squad. UCF wins 34-24. This is the second meeting between the two schools with Arizona State leading the series 1-0.
