Eleventh-ranked Alabama will travel to Baton Rouge to face 14th-ranked LSU in a game of knockout where the loser goes home. Both teams are coming off a bye week, so both have had ample time to prepare. Bama is coming off their stomping of a weakened Missouri team to keep their hopes alive. LSU lost a tough game to Texas A&M to give them their first conference loss of the year. Now that the Aggies lost last week, there are five SEC teams with only one loss. Alabama is one of three teams with two losses, though both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt have tie-breakers over them. That puts Alabama in eighth place and LSU in fifth in the conference, both on the outside looking in.
Faster Starts
The one Achilles heel for Bama’s offense this season has been getting off to slow starts, especially on the road. It’s become such a pattern that Coach DeBoer was asked about it at his press conference.
“You just can’t dig yourself a hole especially given the opponent and momentum in an environment like we’re gonna see at LSU. So it’s critical we preach it everyday. We try to even set up our practice to where we do start fast.”
The two losses this year were on the road and both started poorly. At Vanderbilt, the Commodores drove right down the field on them for a touchdown. The first offensive drive for Bama followed and was a pick-six. In Tennessee, the offense’s first three possessions were two punts and an interception. Even at home two weeks ago against Missouri, they kicked a field goal on the first drive but then punted three straight times. They do that against an offense like LSU and they will have a hole to dig themselves out of.
Legit Passer
If the offense does start slowly, they will need their defense to step up. They played excellently against Missouri, but they faced a very injured quarterback and his extremely deficient backup. They have a much more competent passer to play this week in Garrett Nussmeier. He currently leads the country in completions and pass attempts. He’s thrown for 20 touchdowns and their passing yards per game are sixth in the country. The only downside is he is young and has been prone to turnovers. But make no mistake, he’s a legitimate threat to put up big numbers.
A New Threat
Nussmeier also has plenty of weapons in the passing game. Unlike Alabama, LSU has four receivers with 29 catches or more so they spread it around. The Crimson Tide haven’t really faced a true passing quarterback like him this year. The closest one was against Tennessee and they’re more predicated on their run game. This will be a new kind of test for the Alabama defense that has fared well against the pass, only giving up 193 passing yards per game. But they have struggled to get pressure on quarterbacks. Their 18 sacks don’t crack the top 50 in the country. They will need to find a way to drum up pressure because they can’t let Nussmeier sit back there and carve them up.
The Run Games
The one area where they might have an advantage is in the run game. Alabama ran the ball extremely well against Missouri and LSU isn’t known for their run defense. They allow 133 yards rushing per game while Bama averages 177 on the ground. That’s where they can potentially take advantage. It would shorten the game and give LSU fewer possessions, but that would mean converting third downs which has been a struggle. If they can do it, that’s a way to take Nussmeier out of the game without relying only on the defense.
The one weakness in the Tigers’ offense is their run game. They only gain 115 yards rushing per game, but that isn’t surprising when they lead the country in passing attempts. Stifling the run would make the LSU offense one-dimensional. Then Nussmeier might get desperate and they could exploit his one weakness: interceptions. He’s thrown nine this year, five of them in the last three games. If they can create turnovers and limit their own, that’s the path to an Alabama victory.
A Game of Knockout
This might as well be a playoff game because the loser is probably done. LSU only has one conference loss, but they don’t have enough good games left on their schedule to make up ground. The SEC is just too tight with too many capable teams. There are eight that are neck-and-neck and most likely four spots at most to be had. Alabama’s two losses might already be too much to overcome. They also don’t have any big games remaining on their schedule to make up any ground. They lose this one and the season is officially over. The only upside to the conference being so competitive is that anyone can lose any week. Even the middling teams are good enough to knock off some of the top teams so there’s still hope. The winner still has a shot at the playoff. The loser goes home.
