Alabama’s disappointing season with first-year coach Kalen DeBoer has left a lot of questions, but there’s still hope. The 14th-ranked Crimson Tide beat Georgia but lost to Tennessee in their biggest games so far. The loss to Vanderbilt is the one that’s hardest to swallow even if they are now considered a good team. With the new post-season, 12 teams make the playoffs. If Alabama wins out, they could get in. But how possible is that?
Their path to winning out has obstacles, but not as extreme as it once seemed. The biggest test comes after this bye against LSU. The 16th-ranked Tigers are coming off a rough loss, but they’re still a formidable opponent. Alabama plays Mercer next which should be an easy win. A few weeks ago, Oklahoma seemed like a tough game. But they’ve lost three in a row and their offense has struggled mightily. Bama finishes the regular season against a bad Auburn team so winning out is doable. Still, fixes are necessary and even then advancing is questionable.
The Quarterback
Jalen Milroe can be one of the most electric players in the country. But he’s also prone to big mistakes. In their two losses, he had four turnovers. He has already thrown as many interceptions this year as he did last year. His accuracy has felt hit or miss, yet he’s still completing over 67 percent of his passes. He would benefit from more short passes with chances for yards after the catch. Their offense has been predicated on passes over 20 yards leaving little margin for error. His consistency in the run game has been up and down. He’s second in the country in rushing touchdowns, but couldn’t get it going when they lost two out of three. Better performances from the rest of the run game could open up more opportunities for him.
The Run Game
The running backs have been worthy of criticism. They got the run game back on track against Missouri. But that defense was exhausted because their offense couldn’t sustain a drive. Jam Miller and Justice Haynes are solid backs. They’ve combined for 800 rushing yards in eight games. But there’s been too many runs that go for a loss or short gains. That stresses the passing game. Some of this blame falls on the offensive line. Rushers get hit in the backfield far too often. They have not got the necessary push. Even more four or five-yard runs would be huge, so they aren’t so reliant on long pass plays.
The Receivers
With their receivers, long pass plays can work though. Ryan Williams has been the number one guy. He has 35 catches for 702 yards and seven touchdowns. But Germie Bernard has been under-the-radar with 30 catches for 463 yards and two touchdowns. Everyone else has 16 catches or less. But Williams is a legit number-one with elite skills and, as a freshman, he should only get better. Bernard is a solid two who has been reliable at contested catches over the middle. There’s not much depth, but there are enough options for this passing game to thrive.
The Defense
The defense has its issues. It feels like they haven’t been as good as last year. Is that because Nick Saban is gone? It could be that they lost players to the NFL like Terrion Arnold, Kool-Aid McKinstry, Dallas Turner, Justin Eboigbe, and Chris Braswell. Arnold had five interceptions. Turner, Eboigbe, and Braswell combined for 25 of the team’s 39 sacks. That’s a lot of production lost. The current team only has 17 sacks. But this defense is giving up fewer points per game than last year. It seems like they don’t make enough big plays, but they’ve induced 17 turnovers to last year’s 18.
They have struggled to get off the field. When they lost two out of three, they allowed 25 of 47 third-downs to be converted for a 53 percent hit rate. They were excellent against Missouri, but it’s hard to know how much to take from that game. The toughest part is there’s not one area to blame. They’ve got gashed on the run, but are still only giving up 3.7 yards per carry. They allow under 200 yards passing per game but have burned for huge pass plays in big moments. On paper, this is a solid defense. But the biggest problem is one that’s haunted the entire team.
The Penalties
It’s been discussed incessantly and that speaks to the magnitude of it. Bama is averaging eight penalties and 79 penalty yards per game. Both rank bottom five in the country. In their two losses, they committed 21 penalties for 172 yards. It’s been a component of the third-down issues on defense. It has set back the offense forcing them to convert more third-and-longs. Some have happened at devastating moments in games when players lost their composure. This is a coaching issue that falls on DeBoer. Some penalties happen, but to be one of the worst in the country is not acceptable. This would not have happened under Saban. Unless they limit these mistakes, this team is not going anywhere.
Prediction
LSU is the main hurdle left. They will be heavily favored in the other remaining games. If they win out, are they in? It’s possible but certainly not definite. Out of the 12 teams that make it, five are conference winners. The Aggies have a two-game lead over Bama, so winning the conference seems unlikely. That would leave them vying for one of seven spots. Four other teams in the SEC only have one conference loss, while Bama has two. Three of those teams rank in the top 10. The Crimson Tide don’t control their destiny. If they use this bye week to find a way to clean up penalties, minimize turnovers, and keep improving the run game, they should win out. But it might be too little too late.
