Narratives change daily but one that will have to come to a head with Ohio State at Penn State is which coach finally gets a big win. Ryan Day is 2-6 against top-five opponents (at the time of playing). James Franklin, in his time at Penn State, is 1-8 against top-five teams and 1-9 against Ohio State. Day, meanwhile, has never dropped a matchup against the Nittany Lions in his six chances.
Now, it’s the number three team in the nation hosting the number four team. Someone has to win over a top-five foe. Ohio State is coming off an uninspiring win over Nebraska and there are questions abound.
Read More: Previewing Ohio State at Penn State from a Nittany Lion’s point of view.
Ohio State at Penn State: Something’s Got to Give
Trench Warfare
All eyes with Ohio State at Penn State will be on the matchups between the offensive and defensive lines. Both the offensive and defensive lines for the Buckeyes have drawn incredible ire from the fanbase.
On the offensive side, the Buckeyes have actually been one of the better units in the country. According to PFF, the front five have surrendered the fewest pressures among the Power 4 programs…by a wide margin. However, many of the issues have been in the run game. Over the first five games, the Ohio State offense averaged over 222 yards per game. In the loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes ran for 141 yards but 53 of those came on one carry. Then, the offense managed just 64 yards on the ground against Nebraska last week. A usually explosive tandem, the Ohio State running backs only managed two runs of at least 10 yards.
Left tackle Josh Simmons was putting together an All-American season but went down with a season-ending knee injury. Then Zen Michalski stepped in and struggled mightily before succumbing to an injury of his own. While his injury is not expected to be as severe, it’s not looking like he will be suiting up for Ohio State at Penn State.
When Michalski went down against Nebraska, left guard Donovan Jackson kicked outside to tackle and sophomore Luke Mongtomery stepped in to fill the gap at guard.
Against the likes of Abdul Carter, the makeshift line will have to play near-perfectly. Of course, Penn State may be without Dani Dennis-Sutton, so that should make the job significantly easier. However, Carter has the ability to wreck the game and the Buckeyes would do well to prepare for him specifically.
Replicate Last Year’s Successes on Defense
Penn State’s offense is quite a bit different compared to what Ohio State saw last year. A new offensive coordinator has helped the Nittany Lions take a step forward and has brought out the best in Drew Allar. While Allar has been dealing with an injury, all signs are pointing to him suiting up. However, his backup, Beau Pribula, has what it takes to play at a high level.
Last year, the Ohio State defense held Penn State to a ridiculously paltry 1-16 on third down. Allar played what could be described as his worst game at the collegiate level. He finished the game with 191 yards and a touchdown while going for 18-for-42 passing.
Needless to say, if Ohio State’s defense can replicate this performance, it should be in another winning effort. While the secondary should be up to the task – Denzel Burke needs a bounceback game – the focus will be on the defensive line and the pass rush.
Two years ago, Jaylahn Tuimoloau single-handedly took over the game for Ohio State and put together one of the most dominant single-game performances in program history. Since then, he’s been quiet. He and Jack Sawyer have had moments but have not quite put it together. If Ohio State wants to get to Allar and make him as inaccurate as he was last year, Tuimoloau and Sawyer have to step up.
The key on the defensive line will likely end up being on the interior. Ty Hamilton and Tyleik Williams have been a force for the Buckeye defense and will be leaned upon in this one. Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are a running back tandem on par with Ohio State’s Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. With Allar possibly not 100%, Penn State will lean on the run game even more than it already does.
Continue the Chase
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship hopes hinge on this game. Sure, battles against Indiana and Michigan highlight the end of the schedule but going to Happy Valley for a top-four matchup with a program as close to a rivalry as Ohio State can get in the Big Ten (aside from Michigan), it’s a must-win.
Can Ohio State make the College Football Playoff with a loss? Absolutely. Even with two losses, those losses will be on the road to two of the top three teams in the country. If the Buckeyes were in the SEC, those would be considered #QualityLosses.
Snark aside, both Ohio State and Penn State have an opportunity to get over big-game woes. The Nittany Lions will be even more motivated to take this one. Ohio State has won 11 of the last 12 matchups with Penn State with that lone loss coming off a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown in a game when the Buckeyes arguably out-played the Nittany Lions.
Day and company have a razor-thin margin for error and their mettle will be tested on the road.
