Michigan football has now had a bye week to take its medicine and get right. The journey to Seattle didn’t quite go as planned, but now the slate is clean and the second half of the season begins in earnest.
Their first obstacle in that respect is Illinois. Bret Bielema has the Illini at 5-1, good for fourth in the Big Ten. They’re rededicating Memorial Stadium on the 100th anniversary of their initial dedication, in which Illinois legend Red Grange pounded the Wolverines for six touchdowns. This year’s team will similarly look to shake things up against the defending conference champs.
For Michigan’s part, it looks increasingly like a must-win game. Let’s talk about why that is.
It’s Tuttle Time
Jack Tuttle entered the game against Washington and immediately the offense looked more cohesive. He went 10 for 18 for 98 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He looked comfortable when asked to run the ball. At one point he found Amorion Walker for a 22-yard gain, which prompted questions about whether Walker could provide the spark the receiving corps so desperately needed.
Then came the fourth quarter, and with it unmitigated disaster. Tuttle shrugged off another potential big gain to Walker in favor of tucking and running directly into a forced fumble. The interception was a great play by safety Kamren Fabiculanan, but it was nonetheless an under-thrown ball to Colston Loveland. The long and short of it is Tuttle provided the best passing attack for the Wolverines this season but still has plenty to clean up.
Some of that has to be rust. He’s coming off multiple years derailed by injury and has only been fully practicing for a few weeks. That aside, the coaching staff needs to set him and the rest of the offense up for success, and it sounds like they might be (finally) learning that lesson. Sherrone Moore has indicated that Greg Crippen may have locked down the center job while filling in for Dom Giudice. He also noted that, if Myles Hinton is healthy, fill-in Jeff Persi may have done enough to supplant beleaguered right tackle Evan Link.
If Walker can continue to ascend, and the offensive line can finally lock in and crystallize, this offense might be able to operate and put playmakers in good positions. If not, the dilemma on this side of the ball will continue.
All In On Altmyer
Bielema’s past teams have relied heavily on running backs to lead the way offensively. At Wisconsin, he fostered dynamos like Montee Ball and Melvin Gordon to tremendous success. At Arkansas, he had Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins. Current Cincinnati Bengal Chase Brown was his first Illini workhorse, and Kaden Feagin was the latest in the lineage until going down with a leg injury.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer now has the keys to the kingdom. He’s thrown for 1,426 yards and 14 touchdowns (to one interception) so far this year. He also has a solid supporting cast to help shoulder the load. Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin pace the receivers with 27 and 28 catches, respectively. Bryant also has seven touchdown catches to his name and provides a big red zone target at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds. Senior running back Josh McCray filled in admirably in Feagin’s stead against Purdue. He put in for 124 yards from scrimmage and three total scores – two on the ground, one in the air.
Despite McCray’s success, it’s worth noting that was against a lackluster Purdue defensive front. Michigan’s star-studded defensive line will present a much greater challenge for an Illini ground game led by a backup. Hence, this matchup will likely come down to whether or not Altmyer can continue to surge against the Michigan back seven. Based on what we’ve seen so far, they’re likely to bust a coverage or two, which an experienced quarterback and a couple of talented wide receivers will easily exploit.
Two Defenses Looking To Rebound
To that end, Michigan’s secondary needs one of the bigger bounce-back games in recent memory. Zeke Berry, Jyaire Hill, and even Will Johnson slipped and slid their way to a horrible day against Washington. We now need to see how much of that had to do with the slick Seattle turf, and how much of it was just genuinely being lost on this defense. If Hill and Johnson can lock down Bryant and Franklin, the Illini will have to dink-and-dunk their way through drives to find any forward momentum. If Bryant and Franklin are running free, look out.
For Illinois, the problem on defense lies up front. The line let an otherwise hopeless Purdue attack run for 239 yards and seven-and-a-half yards per attempt. Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards should both get a healthy number of touches to pepper this front seven and see if they can find the same profit in the ground game. Moore has to be salivating at an opportunity to ‘smash’ in this one.
The Illinois secondary also made Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne look like a world-ender in the second half. Browne passed for NINE yards in the first half, then went 14-of-19 for 288 yards and three scores in the last 30 minutes. The Illinois defense has otherwise looked solid this year, but that’s an alarming half of football. Is it indicative of some greater weakness? We’ll have to see what Tuttle and company can do against them on Saturday.
The Bottom Line
Despite six games’ worth of data, shuffling around Michigan’s offensive pieces makes this difficult to call. There’s hope that a new-look O-Line can give Tuttle time to operate effectively in the pocket. If Walker is the only wide receiver who can create separation, he needs more playing time. The run game should at the very least be able to keep Michigan afloat.
The Illini’s opposite problems – functional offense, questionable defense – present an interesting litmus test for the Wolverines after the bye. Wink Martindale needs to show some growth and show that he can call plays to his players’ strengths, rather than asking them to simply Be NFL-Caliber Defenders At All Times. His players, for their part, need to tackle better and keep their feet (seriously, what was with the slippery turf at Husky Stadium?).
It’s also worth considering the environment at hand. Illinois has had this game circled for months as a chance to stick it to the national champs. Michigan’s roster might have a higher recruiting pedigree, but Bielema’s building a nuisance of a team in Champaign, and they’re liable to come out playing like their hair’s on fire.
It feels like a three-point game either way. If Michigan’s second-half woes continue, Illinois probably winds up on the fun end of those three points.
Predictions:
- Altmyer gets two touchdowns to Bryant.
- Michigan holds Illinois under 100 rushing yards.
- …But, the Illini get more than enough receiving yards to make up for it.
- Tuttle goes 10-of-15 for ~120 yards, a touchdown, and a pick.
- Amorion Walker gets that touchdown.
- You already know what’s coming:Illinois 27, Michigan 24
