The Gators season is currently hanging in the balance. After a 3-3 start, the Gators must adapt to new challenges. Losing starting quarterback Graham Mertz for the rest of the season, this team must rally around his ACL tear. Vowing to still be a big part of the team, Mertz will take on a coach’s role. His experience will be crucial to the success of true freshman DJ Lagway, now the starter for the remainder of the season. Already having plenty of experience, the season now rests on the shoulders of the 5-star. With Kentucky also entering this matchup at 3-3, this game will decide the fate of both teams. As fans know, the Gators have a brutal schedule, still having to play Texas and Georgia. This game presents itself as one of the last winnable affairs, and the Gators must take full advantage.
New Starter
Fans are saddened by the loss of Mertz, but they know they have an absolute weapon in Lagway. Already throwing for over 700 yards this season, he has five touchdowns compared to four interceptions. Playing admirably in the overtime loss to Tennessee, he looked uncomfortable at first before settling in. Starting the second game of the season against FCS Samford, he threw for 456 yards, showing why he was labeled as a 5-star. However, he will no longer be splitting reps with Mertz, as now all eyes will be on him to lead this team. The Gators offense must adapt to his skillset, as he is much more mobile and more inclined towards the big play than Mertz. The playcalling must be up to par for him to succeed, something head coach Billy Napier has struggled with. With his live arm, Napier must be creative, no more conservativeness.
Defensive Breakthrough
The last two weekends, this has been a different Gators defense as documented in the Tennessee analysis article. Sacking Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava three times, this pass rush has been active and physical. If the Gators want to remain competitive the rest of the way, this defense will have to anchor this team. Surprisingly, defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong has this unit rolling, after a subpar start. The bye week served this group well, as they have been an entirely different squad since. Now taking on Kentucky and quarterback Brock Vandagriff, many are expecting another defensive duel. Owning a shocking win over Ole Miss, the Kentucky offense has been quite stagnant in other performances. However, the Kentucky defense has been sharp, leading to what should be a battle of the defenses. With a true freshman quarterback making his first SEC start, the Gators will have to lean on this unit.
Revenge Factors
Despite being a dominant force against Kentucky in the past, the Wildcats have had the Gators number as of late. From 1987 till 2017, the Gators rattled off 31 straight victories over the Wildcats. An impressive stat, the odds have shifted dramatically in recent years. Since 2017, the Wildcats have won four out of six, including three in a row. Embarrassing the Gators last season, the Wildcats ran up and down the field en route to a 19-point victory. No longer having their starting running back from last season, Kentucky should be a very beatable opponent. With this game taking place in the Swamp, the Gators are slight one-point favorites. A night game, the stadium should be rocking for DJ Lagway to come out and make a statement. The Gators are eager to get back to their winning ways, and this game should define Napier’s legacy.
New look Offense
Now that Mertz is out for the season, the offense will have to drastically change its playcalling. Switching away from the short game, Lagway is a much more mobile passer, doing his best work on the run. If Napier wants success with this unit, he will have to devise a game plan that caters to Lagway’s strengths. Last weekend, when Mertz went down, the game plan did not change a whole lot, despite the differences in skillsets. This weekend, expect the offense to be much more open, with an emphasis on getting Lagwav into space. With running back Montrell Johnson Jr. also going down with an injury, the Gators could be thin at this position. However, much to the relief of many fans, his injury is not feared to be long-term. With backup Treyaun Webb also questionable, the Gators should turn toward freshman Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson.
Final Thoughts
With the schedule that remains in front of the Gators, this is one they simply must win. They will indeed have to adapt thanks to their injuries, but at this point, the Gators have no choice. Sitting at 3-3, they will have to dig deep for this one, as they could be staring another losing season in the face. Taking place in the Swamp should give this group a huge advantage over a solid Kentucky squad. Lagway will of course struggle early, but fans should expect plenty of jaw-dropping moments. This game will hinge on the defense of the Gators, as they have been stout the past two weeks. I believe that the Gators will adapt to their circumstances, as this team has been playing with some fire. Despite Napier most likely being on his way out, his team still plays for him, which bodes well for this matchup.
Prediction: Florida 20 Kentucky 13
