With back-to-back bad losses, the 3-1 UCF Knights try to save the season by hosting the rival 3-2 Cincinnati Bearcats. The game will take place on Saturday, October 12th at 3:30 pm ET at FBC Mortgage Stadium and air on ESPN2. Let’s take a look at the matchup.*
*As of the writing of this preview, the game is still scheduled to be played on Saturday. Due to Hurricane Milton, this could potentially change.
Righting the Ship
UCF’s ship has been taking on water over the last two weeks. Sure, losses happen, but the loss to the Colorado Buffaloes and then Florida Gators were ugly losses. The team has been progressively going backward since the come-from-behind win against TCU earlier in the season. Half a dozen players decided to redshirt with the intent to transfer. Players seem to look disinterested on the field, and the fan base has been lighting torches and sharpening pitchforks while calling for Gus Malzahn’s job. UCF has a lot of problems, but coming back home against a rival in Cincinnati might be the panacea they need. It took until the sixth game of the season, but this is UCF’s first game of the season on one of ESPN’s linear channels.
Who Are the Cincinnati Bearcats
Head coach Scott Satterfield’s second season is looking way better than his first. Last year, Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston all moved from the American Athletic Conference over to the Big 12. The Bearcats struggled in that first season, going 3-9. Out went quarterback Emory Jones and in came redshirt sophomore Brendan Sorsby from Indiana. The Hoosiers weren’t very good in 2023, but Sorsby looked pretty good as a redshirt freshman. He looks even better this year, throwing for just short of 1,500 yards, 12 touchdowns, and only one interception. Last week against Texas Tech was Sorsby’s best game yet. He went 31/45 for 426 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception. This is a night-and-day change from last year’s debacle. Former Florida Gator and leading wide receiver Xzavier Henderson will have revenge on his mind. He is zero and two against the Knights from games in 2021 and 2023.
While UCF is built to be a run-first team, Cincinnati was more balanced early on but has relied more and more on the pass. Corey Kiner has run for 413 yards and a pair of touchdowns while Ohio State transfer Evan Pryor has 239 and three touchdowns. Since the second game of the season against Pittsburgh, Kiner’s utilization and production have decreased with each game. Against Texas Tech last week, Kiner got injured and carted off the field after only three carries. Pryor and Manny Covey had to step in. Pryor is a big play threat but hasn’t been the featured back yet.
UCF’s Offense
UCF’s offense is a hot mess. What was supposed to be an explosive running game has become a shadow of itself. Colorado figured out how to stymie UCF’s rushing offensive by just overpowering the offensive line. A great offensive line can mask a lot of problems, but this is not even a good offensive line. They were able to push around the defensive front of smaller schools like New Hampshire and Sam Houston, but against their Big 12 peers, it’s been a struggle. The offensive line has made quarterback KJ Jefferson take more hits and be far less effective. After peaking at 80% passing against Sam Houston, his completion rate has decreased with each game. His quarterback rating has gone down with each game since TCU. Against both Colorado and Florida, Jefferson was sacked five times. His reads have slowed and his ability to run has also become less effective.
UCF’s running game has been going backward. RJ Harvey’s campaign for the Heisman or the Doak Walker has pretty much died out over the last two weeks. While he is still 13th in the nation and fourth in the Big 12 in rushing yards, something divine needs to happen if he is going to catch Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty. Harvey is still the desired focal point of the offense. Peny Boone has become the team’s second back and it was overdue. Boone has been a very effective change of pace back while taking carries away from Johnny Richardson. Richardson has been misused by Malzahn on multiple occasions but doesn’t fit the offense anymore. An undersized back like Richardson should not be running between the tackles in a short-yardage situation. That’s why you have Boone, who is 6’1″ and 232 pounds. Richardson is on pace for non-covid year career lows in attempts, yards, and yards per attempt. Myles Montgomery has been dealing with a leg injury. As a transfer from Cincinnati, Montgomery would love a go against his former school.
UCF Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats Predictions
Last week, the Knights took one hit after another. First, it was multiple players deciding to redshirt and announce their intention to enter the transfer portal. Then, the team fell on their face again, this time against in-state rival Florida. UCF has a chance to start to right the ship against Cincinnati. UCF and Cincinnati have no love lost between them and they have had some excellent games over the years. The Knights offense has been in freefall while Cincinnati is coming off a close loss at Texas Tech. UCF’s offense needs something to change and until they do, the offense does not look like it will get back on track. Cincinnati 31-27. This will be the tenth time these two meet with UCF leading the series 5-4.
