After a bad loss last week, the 3-1 UCF Knights try to regain momentum as they travel to nearby Gainesville to take on the SEC’s 2-2 Florida Gators. The game will take place on Saturday, October 5th at 7:30 pm ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and air on the SEC Network. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Recovering From a Dud
Last week, UCF was the host site of the Fox Big Noon Kickoff show. The fans showed out in a big way and according to Fox, it was their largest turnout for their pregame show. Unfortunately, that did not translate to the field as the Knights got beaten soundly by the Colorado Buffaloes 48-21. There were multiple reasons for the loss. One of them is the upcoming game against Florida. As fellow in-state schools, there is no love lost between UCF and Florida. Florida being the flagship university has viewed UCF as a much younger sibling. However, in recent years, the Knights have been very competitive with the Gators in multiple sports, including football. The last time the two met on the gridiron, UCF won the “Gus-Parilla” Bowl over Florida in Tampa 29-17
When the series with Florida was scheduled, UCF was still a Group of Five school in the American Athletic Conference. Times have changed as UCF is now a Power Four school in the Big 12 Conference. Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin has said in regards to scheduling UCF, “They weren’t in the Big 12 when we made the schedule, so that’s one we might’ve handled differently.”
Who Are the Florida Gators
The Florida Gators are asking this same question. This current generation is a far cry from their glory years. Florida had their first ten-win season in 1991. From 1991-2001, they had nine ten-win seasons. From 2006-2019, they still had seven ten-win seasons. They haven’t had one since. The wheels started to really fall off in 2021. Coach Dan Mullen was fired during a subpar season and they hired Billy Napier away from Louisiana. That hasn’t worked out well as Napier has not had a winning season yet in Gainesville. Many talking heads have said Napier is on the hot seat, but his contract buyout is around $25 million or so. That’s more than what Auburn paid current UCF head coach Gus Malzahn to go away.
This year’s Florida offense has potential in freshman quarterback DJ Lagway but the team keeps going back to senior Graham Mertz. Mertz had an efficient 2023 and his 2024 has not been terrible, but it has not translated into wins. Lagway has shown good potential with 617 yards and four touchdowns and is more of a downfield threat than Mertz, but with 487 yards, four touchdowns, and a 75% completion rate, Mertz has been able to stay on the field. If he sticks around, Lagway should get more and more playing time. Florida’s run game is basically just Montrell Johnson, who has run for 234 yards and three touchdowns. Johnson came over with Napier from Louisiana and has run for at least 800 yards each season. Florida’s leading receiver is Arizona State transfer Elijah Badger, who had 305 yards and a touchdown.
UCF’s Offense
Despite last week’s setback, UCF is not abandoning their run game. Against Colorado, the Knights struggled to establish the run game and had to rely more on quarterback KJ Jefferson’s arm. The passing game is not the team’s strong suit and the results showed. Despite the rough day, the Knights are now only second in the nation with 326 rushing yards per game. Once again, the team’s success will rely on the legs of RJ Harvey, who ranks tenth in the nation with 525 yards. Harvey is tied for seventh with 654 total yards from scrimmage. The rest of UCF’s four horsemen didn’t get much usage against Colorado. Florida’s rushing defense ranks 109th in yards per game given up. Florida’s total defense is ranked 112th with opponents averaging 425.5 yards per game. This bodes well for UCF’s chances to get back on track.
UCF Knights vs Florida Gators Predictions
Last week, UCF fell apart. This week, the Knights get the benefit of an opponent in disarray. Florida is still trying to figure itself out. UCF’s only had one road game so far this season and it was a doozy. The Swamp is historically a tough place to play and it’s easy for the mental portion of the game to affect the physical. The Knights have a bad taste in their mouth and are looking to hit the reset button on the season. UCF 27-21. This will be the fourth time UCF and Florida will be playing football against each other. Florida currently leads the series 2-1
