A National Championship rematch between the Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies should be an exciting measuring stick for both programs. After all, it’s only been nine months since they met on the sport’s biggest stage.
And yet, for fans of both teams, January 8, 2024, suddenly feels like forever ago. Both head coaches from that contest have moved on, as have most (if not all) of their key staffers. The principal players have graduated, gone to the NFL, or transferred elsewhere. Early-season results for both squads have oscillated between expected dominance and bewildering incompetence. To top it all off, Washington is now a conference foe, and Michigan will travel outside the Big House’s friendly confines for the first time this season.
Jedd Fisch and Sherrone Moore, having slipped out of the gates, will try to find their footing against one another. What can we expect from last year’s College Football Playoff Finalists?
Key Matchup: Washington Offense vs. The Finish Line
Fisch’s program is coming off a supremely improbable loss to Rutgers. Washington bested the Scarlet Knights in seemingly every category except the final score. Credit to Greg Schiano’s outfit (the dream of a 10-win season in Piscataway lives on) for capitalizing when they had to, but the loss puts Washington at 3-2, 0-1 in their new conference.
They wound up on the not-so-fun end of this graph, which, alongside the box score, tells most of the story – dominance offset by bad penalties, bad special teams play, and stalled-out drives. The Huskies rank 117th in red zone efficiency despite being 21st in yards per game. With apologies to Washington fans, this goal line play to lose the Apple Cup to Wazzu illustrates one of the problems. Michigan fans will recall Fisch’s crafty play-calling as Wolverine offensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh in 2015-2016. It felt bizarre to see the same play-caller dial up a speed option to the boundary with a rivalry game on the line. The game plan improved against Rutgers, but they were undone by other issues which we’ll get to shortly.
On the other side, Michigan’s defense has faced 60 total opponent drives thus far. 17 of those have reached the end zone, where they’ve surrendered 10 touchdowns and four field goals. They’re at their best when the Wolverine defensive front is generating pressure early in drives and forcing opponents into quick, unproductive possessions. When opponents get them on their heels and keep them on the field, they cede points.
Michigan’s best shot here will be forcing Will Rogers and company off schedule. Keep them out of the red zone, and most importantly, do it for two full halves. For the Huskies, sustained drives can wear down Wink Martindale’s unit, and might prove the antidote to their red zone woes.
Key Matchup: Washington vs. Execution
As Nick Lemkau has noted, the Huskies have had issues with both penalties and tackling this year. Just last week, three of their six penalties led to 14 Rutgers points and a missed Washington field goal. Herein lies another point of emphasis if Michigan intends to win this game. Washington currently sits at 127th nationally with 9.3 penalties per game. Michigan is 24th, with 4.3.
For all Michigan’s issues with actual execution – most disappointingly on the offensive line – they’ve at least been disciplined. The Minnesota game was at several points a refereeing rollercoaster, but otherwise, Moore’s charges have mostly kept their noses clean. Fisch and his staff have had a tougher time keeping players out of their way, with 16 penalties in the Apple Cup constituting the lowlight.
In the same vein, the Husky defense had trouble finishing tackles against Kyle Monangai. Again per Lemkau, they missed 11 tackles against Rutgers. If they had trouble with Monangai at 5-foot-9 and 200 lbs, chances are Kalel Mullings (6-foot-1, 236 lbs) will give them fits. Penalization and tackling both ultimately come back to coaching. It’s not likely that Fisch can orchestrate a one-week turnaround and make this team a sound-tackling, penalty-free unit. But if they can minimize mistakes on those fronts and force Michigan to beat them through the air, it’ll be a slog for the Wolverine offense.
To wit…
Key Matchup: Michigan Offense vs. Playing To Their Strengths
Offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell didn’t need to do much in the first half against Minnesota. The Wolverines put together one true touchdown drive. They found the end zone twice more on short fields off a fumble recovery and a blocked punt, respectively. From there, it fell into this season’s now all-too-familiar pattern of ineptitude. An intermittently effective rushing offense offset by an (at best) erratic passing “attack.”
Michigan’s wide receivers are not getting separation, they’ve had brutal drops, and generally are not helping Alex Orji out of trouble. Ditto the offensive line, which has made improvements in PFF scores but is still besieged on passing downs and killing Orji’s protection. It didn’t help that their best piece, Myles Hinton, went out with an injury against the Gophers.
We finally saw dual-running back snaps last week, but the team needs more of them given the dearth of playable, productive receivers. Motioning Donovan Edwards, Semaj Morgan (if healthy), or Colston Loveland should be the norm on every play to reveal pre-snap information about defensive coverages. Edwards and Loveland should be the de facto first and second reads on any passing play. With apologies to Kendrick Bell, Fred Moore, and C.J. Charleston, they just have not shown enough to demand the ball from Orji.
To that end, what’s most evident at this point is a lack of innovation and planning from this coaching staff. They seem intent on treating Orji like a pure pocket passer who can scramble, rather than drawing up ~10 designed runs per game. Force the defense to account for his legs with RPOs, read-options, and straight-up quarterback draws/quarterback power. At this point, they’re otherwise setting down on fire by unfairly expecting Orji to morph into J.J. McCarthy overnight.
The Bottom Line
The opponent changes but the song remains the same: can Mullings and Michigan’s defense do enough to win another weird game that probably ends 27-24? Can the offensive brain trust evolve the game plan in any way to utilize their quarterback’s obvious strengths and force the opposing defense into difficult decisions? Are they healthy, at least?
On that last point, it does sound like the Wolverines will be closer to full strength this game. Hinton, Morgan, Josaiah Stewart, and Will Johnson all sound like good bets to play this weekend. That’s two of their three best players in Stewart and Johnson, which should be worth something.
Ultimately, it feels like the Wolverines will have a tough time on the road, especially given their second-half woes.
Predictions:
- Washington gets one red zone touchdown, and former Wolverine Giles Jackson is the one to haul it in.
- Stewart and Mason Graham get two sacks apiece.
- Orji does not throw for more than 100 yards.
- As a result, Mullings is once again asked to Do It All, and in this regard comes up short (but still hits 100 yards on the ground).
- What the heck, the season’s already weird, same score three weeks in a row. The Huskies get their revenge in a game with big issues for both teams:
Washington 27, Michigan 24
