When Ohio State at Michigan State kicks off on Saturday, it will have been 3,234 days since that infamous matchup in 2015. Ezekiel Elliott declared for the NFL Draft after just 11 carries and Lima, Ohio’s own Tyler O’Connor quarterbacked the Spartans to an upset win in Columbus.
A lot has changed since that day. Ohio State has won eight in a row over Michigan State and hasn’t lost in East Lansing since 1999. The last seven meetings have been dominated by the Buckeyes, 303-61. However, this year’s Spartans are not as hopeless as the recent teams have been.
Ohio State at Michigan State: Take Advantage of Opportunities
High Ceiling, Low Floor
To this point, there has not been much of a challenge for the Buckeye defense. The challenge for Ohio State at Michigan State will be containing Aidan Chiles and capitalizing on his mistakes.
At Oregon State, Chiles looked solid in his limited time. He followed Jonathan Smith to Michigan State and has made his mark. Through four games, Chiles has thrown for 891 yards and four touchdowns. He also has 95 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. There’s no denying that he’s going to be the best offensive weapon the Ohio State defense has faced to this point.
The difference will be putting pressure on him and force him into more mistakes. Chiles has thrown seven interceptions to this point and has turned it over multiple times in three games. In the loss to Boston College last week, he threw three interceptions.
There are several ways this game could go. Alleviating pressure off the offense with a few short fields or touchdowns on the defensive side would make things significantly easier. Jack Sawyer has had a good start to the season but it hasn’t translated to counting stats. He has 21 pressures on the year but just one sack. Michigan State’s tackles have allowed a combined 16 pressures between them.
Even if Sawyer is not able to get home, he should be able to influence Chiles’ decisions and pressure the young quarterback into mistakes. If the Ohio State secondary is as good as advertised, since they haven’t been tested, they should be able to come down with at least one turnover.
Strength vs. Strength
One of the best matchups to watch with Ohio State at Michigan State is the Buckeyes’ rushing attack against the Spartans’ run defense.
Through three games, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins have combined for 543 yards and nine touchdowns. Both have been able to rip off massive scores, led by Judkins’ 86-yard scamper from last week. As a team, Ohio State has one of the best rushing attacks in the country at 241 yards per game, good for 14th in the country. Between the two lead-backs, opposing defenses have struggled in limiting their impact and getting negative yardage.
Michigan State, meanwhile, has excelled against the run. The 96.8 yards allowed per game is good for 29th in the country. However, the caveat we use toward the Buckeyes and its strength of schedule apply here as well. In the wins over Maryland and Prairie View A&M (FCS), Michigan State allowed a total of 103 yards and one touchdown off 58 carries. In the other two games, a win and a loss, the Spartans were gashed for 285 yards and two touchdowns off 90 carries.
Michigan State has not faced a running back duo like Henderson and Judkins. Ohio State has not faced a run defense quite like the Spartans’. In three previous matchups against Michigan State, Henderson ran for 244 yards and two touchdowns.
Take Care of Business
According to FanDuel, Ohio State rolls into East Lansing as a 23.5-point favorite. For some context, in the Ryan Day era, the 24-point win in 2019 was the closest these two teams have been. Ohio State has beaten Michigan State by an average of 35.4 points per game.
In his presser, Day praised the Spartans’ defense, calling them “well-coached.” Michigan State allowed more than 140 yards through the air once this year. On average, offenses have managed just 254.8 yards per game. The offense of Ohio State at Michigan State will be tested but considering the unit is averaging 552 yards per game, they should be able to step up.
Ohio State went without naming a defensive player of the game in the 49-14 win over Marshall. Day “doesn’t feel good about anything” after three commanding wins. With the schedule turning to the Big Ten slate, perhaps the Buckeyes will give Day something to feel good about.
