Fresh off a weird, fun, frustrating, exciting win, Michigan football turns its attention toward defending the Little Brown Jug.
P.J. Fleck is now in his eighth season as the Golden Gopher head coach. He’s been largely successful by Minnesota standards, going 52-36 overall. 2019’s 11-win season was a high point, followed by 9-win seasons in 2021 and 2022. The team regressed to sub-.500 last year, going 6-7 (though they did win the Quick Lane Bowl).
So far, this t looks like more of the same. They have big wins over Nevada and FCS Rhode Island. They also have frustrating losses to UNC and Iowa, with the latter sending Floyd of Rosedale back to Iowa City for the seventh time in Fleck’s tenure.
It’s a frustrating time for a program that had hoped to row the boat to more glorious shores by this point. There’s not likely to be much relief on this year’s trip to Ann Arbor. The biggest questions for both teams are on offense. Let’s start with the Gophers.
Minnesota’s Offense: Stuck In The Mud
The Gopher offense in a nutshell: 82nd overall in pass yards per game, 108th overall in rush yards per game. Not ideal in an upcoming matchup with SP+’s number-five defense.
Fleck lost Athan Kaliakmanis to Rutgers but brought in FCS New Hampshire up-transfer Max Brosmer. When he has time, Brosmer has delivered solid if unspectacular numbers and could be a plus player if there was a run game to balance his attack. Therein lies the problem. The run game is usually Fleck’s bread and butter but has faltered so far this year. Sophomore lead back Darius Taylor was injured for their season opener, and since returning has not had much room to operate.
It mostly comes down to the line. Left tackle Aireontae Ersery is a physical specimen with NFL prospects, but otherwise, the unit has disappointed. Phil Parker’s Hawkeye defense put them in a blender last week, and they’ve been generally inconsistent to start the 2024 campaign.
Against Fleck’s tendencies, their best chance to move the ball against Michigan will likely be through the air. Unfortunately for them, it sounds like Will Johnson’s injury won’t keep him out of this one. He and an ascendant Jyaire Hill will look to put the clamps on veteran Gopher wideouts Daniel Jackson and Elijah Spencer. Both are solid, but neither poses the same threat as anyone in the USC outfit Michigan recently endured.
Michigan’s Offense: What Else Ya Got?
They’re one-dimensional, but at least the Wolverines are superb at that one dimension. They rank 26th in total rushing offense so far this year and will look to continue the Kalel Mullings breakout party. Donovan Edwards flashed again with a speedy 41-yard score against USC, but still looks like he won’t ever be the between-the-tackles runner Mullings is. Regardless, the rushing attack will remain Michigan’s load-bearing pillar. As for the air attack…
This may sound like a broken record, but at some point, this staff could at least try splitting Edwards out wide. What’s the harm? We’ve seen zero snaps this year with both backs on the field. Doing so would be a great way to start evolving this offense. Edwards as a receiver gives Michigan two enticing options for end-arounds and jet sweeps – the other being Semaj Morgan. That kind of motion should open up holes in the secondary for a hopefully healthy Colston Loveland to exploit. If Loveland is out again it’s even more reason to get Mullings and Edwards shared snaps and find mismatches in them. Play your best players, and play them together.
All of this will be moot if the offensive line continues to look lost in pass protection. Alex Orji‘s USC stat line was unglamorous, but the film review shows a quarterback doing what he can under immediate and constant pressure on every dropback. Yes, it seems the staff doesn’t fully trust his arm. They also have no opportunity to trust it when he’s besieged the instant the ball is snapped. Right tackle Evan Link has been much-maligned in this regard, with a PFF pass-block grade of zero last week. It’s an issue across the line, but you quite literally can’t be worse than that. Link is young, and still has plenty of time to round out his game, but for now, he looks lost. Give him a break and see what Andrew Gentry can do.
Two Defenses
Minnesota is up to 17th in SP+ on defense. New coordinator Corey Hetherman has already pitched two shutouts this year. To be fair, they were against Nevada, currently 98th in FPI, and Rhode Island, a top-25 FCS team, but an FCS team nonetheless. They also held UNC to 19 points (in a loss) and kept Iowa in check for one half before getting slashed up and down the field by Kaleb Johnson.
The Gophers return a lot of production from last year’s team. Danny Striggow and Jah Joyner (13.5 sacks combined in 2023) hold down the edges in front of Maverick Baranowski and Devon Williams at linebacker. On the whole, they lack a true superstar like they had in Tyler Nubin last year, but safety Kerry Brown has emerged as a playmaker. He picked off Nevada twice then made 11 tackles against the Hawkeyes. It’s a sound unit that will challenge the Wolverine offensive line and capitalize on their mistakes.
You know the book on Michigan at this point: elite front four, rollercoaster linebackers, and arguably the best corner in college football. The rest of the secondary – Makari Paige, first and foremost – will look to rebound after several coverage busts and missed tackles against the Trojans. Some of that also falls on Wink Martindale, who has now ceded wide-open touchdowns to at least two failed blitzes this year. Minnesota’s offense doesn’t seem worth calling the fancy high-variance stuff. Play smartly, lean on the defensive line, and get off the field fast.
The Bottom Line
This game could essentially be boiled down to the Spider-Men Pointing Meme. It’s two teams that are much better on defense than offense at this point in the season. Michigan’s got a leg up in talent on both sides of the ball, and a rushing attack that should help them control the game, chew clock, and maintain possession. Ultimately the final score will probably bear that out.
However, Minnesota has a chance to keep Wolverine hands wringing about the offense. If the Gophers can stifle Michigan’s ground game and force them to throw, this could turn into a vintage Big Ten West rock fight.
Predictions:
- Brosmer is put in the same torture chamber Miller Moss just exited but still connects for one big score on a Wink Martindale blitz/coverage bust. Many Michigan fists shake in the aftermath.
- Michigan runs for 250 yards.
- The offensive line is still woeful in pass pro, but Orji powers through it to break the hallowed 100-yard barrier.
- Minnesota makes some hay for a late field goal against the second-team defense.
- Michigan 31, Minnesota 13
