The USC Trojans play their first game as members of the Big Ten this weekend. Still weird, right? They’ll face the Michigan Wolverines and travel to Ann Arbor for the first time since September 27, 1958.
Both teams have something to prove in this one. For the visitors, it’s a chance to plant a flag in their new conference by defeating the defending champs. For Michigan, it’s a chance to start fresh on offense and see if they can get the season on track toward a more respectable title defense.
Can the Wolverines make it happen? Let’s take a look.
USC’s High-Octane Offense
Lincoln Riley has coached four current NFL starting quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, and Caleb Williams). He’s a disciple of the pirate Mike Leach and the Air Raid offense. That means all-shotgun formations, 60-70% pass-to-run plays, and no huddling.
Riley’s latest protégé is Miller Moss, who torched Louisville in USC’s bowl game to the tune of 372 yards and six(!) touchdowns to one interception. Moss has a great touch on the ball and moves well in the pocket to adjust for offensive line breakdowns. He frequently throws his receivers open, and as yet doesn’t show many holes in his game. The biggest knock on Moss at this point has to do with sample size. He’s only started three games in his career. They’ve all been wins, and he’s been incredibly productive, but it’s still a limited amount of data. Otherwise, he looks like another notch in Riley’s ‘QB-whisperer’ belt.
USC’s pass-catching talent stacks up with the best in the country. Kyron Hudson is the headliner. The redshirt junior a highlight-reel catch waiting to happen, and he’s not alone. The Trojans rotate in up to eight contributors at the position with little drop-off. Ja’Kobi Lane and Duce Robinson are both big-bodied jump-ball threats, while Makai Lemon and electric freshman Zachariah Branch operate out of the slot. Branch is also a menace in the return game, and his speed really pops on film.
While USC doesn’t run much, they run effectively. Woody Marks is the starter, a transfer from Mississippi State who knows his role and plays it well. When he’s not called on to run he’s also a great receiver out of the backfield.
In short: Michigan’s defense will have its hands full. That said, there are points to attack.
Trouble in the Trenches?
Like Michigan’s, the Trojan offensive line is a bit suspect. Riley’s scheme can paper over it quite a bit, but the right side of their line is an opportunity for the Wolverine defense to get this offense off-schedule. Against LSU, right tackle Mason Murphy and right guard Alani Noa had major issues in pass protection. This forced Moss to make quite a few throws with defenders breathing down his neck. Michigan will look for big games from Josaiah Stewart and Derrick Moore off the edge here, plus continued productive rotations for the defensive tackles.
On the flip side, Michigan’s line has been similarly hit-and-miss. Right tackle Evan Link, in particular, has been much more the latter than the former. Myles Hinton has looked the part at left tackle, but otherwise, the group as a whole has not quite gelled. The switch to Alex Orji at quarterback ought to help mitigate some of that, assuming OC Kirk Campbell can create a run-focused offense that works in quick/short passes and play-action.
Wyoming defensive tackle transfer Gavin Meyer and rush end Jamil Muhammad anchor the defensive line. They also get rush contributions from versatile linebacker Eric Gentry, who has 3.5 tackles-for-loss so far. They’ll be a handful for a Wolverine OL that still has lots to prove after an erratic non-conference schedule. New Trojan defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has built a dependable unit up front that will look to set the tone for his revamped defense.
Speaking Of USC’s Revamped Defense…
After last year’s defensive debacle, Lynn appears to have pulled off a miraculous turnaround. The unit could come under fire for the same issue as Moss: sample size. The Trojans’ two games thus far have been successful, but come with caveats. First, they won a 27-20 statement game against LSU, followed by a 48-0 drubbing of an overmatched Utah State outfit. This year’s LSU team looks very chaotic on both sides of the ball. Our understanding of that game will have to clarify with time, but the point is that Michigan has a chance to really test Lynn’s scheme if they can stay on schedule.
Lynn, the son of former LA Chargers head coach Anthony, comes from the same coaching tree as Michigan’s last three DCs. He used to coach safeties for the Baltimore Ravens under…current Michigan DC Wink Martindale.
This may work to Michigan’s advantage. Lynn will be using familiar schemes rooted in the Ravens’ (and Martindale’s) Amoeba defense. Lynn will of course add his own flare, but conceptually the base should be similar enough that Michigan’s offense can find productivity. That is, of course, as long as they’re not shooting themselves in the foot.
Michigan needs to find success on the ground and put Orji in a position to make quick reads. They might want to try some spread-to-run formations with Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards split out wide. From there, whether by straight handoffs or RPOs, they should be able to scheme open running lanes and open looks to their playmakers.
The Bottom Line
When the Trojans have the ball, it’s iron against iron. Riley’s offense has been a juggernaut since his time at Oklahoma. However, Martindale and the Wolverine defense will have something to say, especially if they can exploit the weaker side of USC’s line. Ultimately, the edge goes to the Big Ten newcomers here.
On the other side of the matchup, it’s familiar territory for Michigan thus far: a battle of unknowns. The Orji offense’s ceiling is tantalizing, but we haven’t seen enough to know whether this offensive staff can maximize him as its focal point. The Trojan defense is improved and much more assignment-sound than in years past. Is it for real? This is a huge chance for Lynn and his staff to prove their mettle. Even edge, maybe a slight tilt to Michigan’s rushing offense if they lean on it as they probably should.
If this turns into a shootout, chances are the Trojans leave Michigan in the dust. Assuming the Wolverine defense holds up their end of the bargain, they should at least keep it competitive. All told the bet here is an improved but not yet fully realized Michigan offense that cannot keep pace with the high-flying USC attack. 31-23, Trojans.
