Michigan football finishes non-conference play at 2-1. That loss was against the current top-ranked team in the country. If you’d offered Wolverine fans these results during the preseason, most would take them without blinking.
And yet…the results belie the look of the on-field product. Sherrone Moore and Kirk Campbell’s offense varies wildly between disjointedly competent and downright abject. The offensive line’s subpar pass protection has submarined Davis Warren’s tenure as a starter. Warren completed all 14 of his passes against the Red Wolves last week, but three of those completions were to the Red Wolves. Wink Martindale’s defense rebounded from a brutal showing against Texas to throttle Arkansas State, but there are still concerns about execution and game-planning moving forward.
Still, there are bright spots on both sides of the ball. The final score might not tell it, but they absolutely pasted ASU in net success rate, a useful stat that indicates improved efficiency for the Wolverines. All told, they’ve provided some early answers to preseason questions. Let’s review.
Defensive Depth: Check
Props to the defensive tackles, where Rayshaun Benny and Ike Iwunnah have ably spelled the starters. Iwunnah in particular is a nice surprise. He’s had little mention from the coaching staff in his previous three years on campus. In year four, he’s earning snaps and making plays. He’s holding his own against double teams and erupted into the backfield for a TFL last week. He’s not a 1:1 match for Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, but he doesn’t have to be. Just being competent and giving the starters a breather is enough.
At linebacker, Jimmy Rolder has bounced back from injury. He’s been a capable fill-in behind starters Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barham. The position group in general has had some tough days to start the year, as Martindale asks quite a lot of them as blitzers and in coverage. If the defensive line continues to improve, it should allow this trio to solidify the second level as a cleanup crew.
In the secondary, the starters have been stalwart minus poor Jyaire Hill, a target for offenses avoiding Will Johnson. Hill rebounded against the Red Wolves after being tormented by Texas. He’s got the natural ability for the position and is still very young for his class. He needs experience and coaching to reach his ceiling, but that will mean more mistakes – a fact this team will live with for the rest of the season.
Behind them, Wesley Walker and Brandyn Hillman have been capable second-team safeties. Ditto for Aamir Hall and Ja’Den McBurrows at corner and nickel, respectively. Hillman is an intriguing second-year player with an immaculate hit stick. The staff is clearly prepping him for next year when the safety room will need a full reload.
The Orji Offense: Ask Again Later
For nearly all offseason, Alex Orji was talked up as the probable starter. Then, Michigan football zagged and handed the reins to a former walk-on. Warren had, by all accounts, a solid fall camp. He projected as the high-floor option, a game manager who would distribute to the playmakers and protect the football. Six interceptions later, that projection is moot.
Moore has named Orji the starter against USC, and now it’s time to see if he and Campbell can tailor the offense to his strengths. Orji’s first snap against ASU was not encouraging in this regard. He lined up under center, effectively eliminating his running ability before the ball is snapped.
Asking Orji to be J.J. McCarthy as a passer is unfair. Trying to force him into that role is trying to put a square peg in a round hole. If Michigan’s going to have a fighting chance against USC, it’ll need to adjust and feature spread offense concepts. This is counterintuitive to Moore’s ‘SMASH’ philosophy, but it’s a great way to clear out the box and give Orji running room, along with whoever’s joining him in the backfield. On that note –
The Rest Of The Offense: Playmakers, Please
If this is going to work, it’ll need to make proper use of Orji’s supporting cast. Though Colston Loveland is working through a (reportedly minor) injury, the rest of Michigan’s premier skill players can help immensely. That starts with working out of 21 or even 22 personnel – having two running backs and one or two tight ends on the field as often as possible.
Kalel Mullings (15 carries for 158 yards and 2 TDs against ASU) has emphatically arrived. Rotating between him and Donovan Edwards, rather than utilizing them in tandem, does a disservice to Orji’s chances at a successful offense. Between them, you can put three credible running options on the field. With motion, misdirection, and option plays, you can then force defenders to make incorrect decisions. We saw some of it late against the Red Wolves, and it would be encouraging to see that built on against USC to play off of Orji’s threat as a runner.
In order to make his threat as a passer valid, he will need some help from the scheme and his receiving corps. The biggest X-factor here is Edwards. He is arguably the team’s most dynamic player, but lacks Mullings’ vision out of the backfield. Split him out wide and get him the ball in space. With Tyler Morris and Semaj Morgan, that’s a trio that can stretch the field horizontally. Get the ball out of Orji’s hand as quickly as possible with screens, slants, and quick outs.
At tight end, Loveland (if healthy) should be the first read on nearly every passing play. In his absence, Marlin Klein and Hogan Hansen made key plays against ASU. Get them lined up on smaller defenders and exploit those mismatches. Max Bredeson’s blocking ability should be utilized more than his 20 snaps last week, especially considering this offensive line’s struggles.
Holding Up Against The Schedule: Still In Play
Michigan still looks like the favorite against Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, and Michigan State.. The rest of the schedule is expected buzzsaws, a wild card, and an early-season surprise.
The buzzsaws: Oregon, USC, and Ohio State. USC is perhaps a generous inclusion here, but they’re a talented team and the early returns on D’Anton Lynn’s defensive turnaround are strong. The Ducks and Buckeyes have had minor struggles but otherwise look like the top-10 juggernauts they projected as preseason.
Jedd Fisch’s Washington is a wild card. After soundly rolling their first two opponents, the Huskies choked away the Apple Cup to Washington State. They took too many penalties, and Fisch’s usually inspired play-calling has come under fire – most notoriously a speed option on 4th and goal from the one-yard line in the fourth quarter. Their title game rematch against the Wolverines has become much more intriguing.
The surprise is Indiana, currently ahead of the Wolverines in FPI after dismantling UCLA. Curt Cignetti’s done a fantastic job with the Hoosier offense. Their early season schedule isn’t particularly challenging, but they have a shot to start the year 6-0 before a showdown with Nebraska.
At this point, with the data available, the floor is 6-6, the ceiling is 9-3. Let’s see what the Trojans have in store.
