Both Michigan and Texas notched Week One wins against Mountain West teams last week. The nature of those victories was decidedly…different.
The Wolverines played a tight game against Fresno State before putting things away in the fourth quarter. The Longhorns ground Colorado State into a fine paste. One team made enough mistakes to cast doubt on their top-10 ranking. The other team was playing (and scoring with) their backups by the third quarter.
Texas emerged looking like they’d recently played in the College Football Playoff. Michigan looked like a team breaking in 10 new starters on offense. The Longhorns are justifiably favored to win in Ann Arbor this weekend, but let’s look at the finer points of this Big Ten-SEC matchup.
Texas on Offense
Texas, like Michigan, nominally has two quarterbacks. Unlike Michigan, both Longhorns signal-callers looked great last week. Quinn Ewers is the starter and has a shot to end up in New York City with the other Heisman hopefuls. He completed 74% of his passes last weekend en route to 260 yards and 3 touchdowns to 1 interception. Arch Manning came on in relief and, no big deal, completed five-of-six for 95 yards and a score. Ewers will get the lion’s share of snaps, but Steve Sarkisian wants to keep Manning happy and will find spots to get him on the field.
They’re operating behind a stalwart offensive line that returns four starters. Left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. is the headliner. He’s been a starter since he stepped on campus in 2022. Banks is currently ticketed toward the top of the 2025 NFL Draft, and his compatriots on the line have played together quite a bit. As Michigan fans just saw, that kind of cohesion in the trenches is invaluable.
The running back room took a hit when CJ Baxter tore multiple knee ligaments in camp. Junior Jaydon Blue has stepped into the starting role in the meantime. The Longhorns appear to have found him a worthy partner in freshman Jerrick Gibson, who led the team in rushing against the Rams last Saturday. The pass-catching group features Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond and frosh phenom Ryan Wingo. Both had productive games and will be a sizable step up in competition for Michigan’s secondary. Much of their depth is filled out by additional transfers – Silas Bolden (Oregon State), Matthew Golden (Houston), and tight end Amari Niblack (Alabama). It’s a strong group with a high ceiling, one made higher with Ewers distributing the ball.
Michigan on Defense
If the Wolverines want to make things competitive, this unit will need to play lights out. Minus a few fixable errors, Wink Martindale’s group largely lived up to the hype against the Bulldogs. The defensive line’s starters pressured Mikey Keene from the first whistle to the last and bottled up the run game. Linebacker Jaishawn Barham didn’t fill the stat sheet but moved like a terror at 6′-3″, 248 pounds. Will Johnson, Jyaire Hill, and Zeke Berry will have their hands full, but Makari Paige, Quinten Johnson, and Wesley Walker look like effective safety blankets as the last line of defense.
Areas for improvement this weekend include a tighter/more selective defensive rotation. Myles Pollard came into the game early last week and was immediately picked on. Against Texas, those kinds of substitutions are going to turn into more than just chunk plays. On the other hand, second-teamers Jimmy Rolder and Rayshaun Benny slotted into the lineup seamlessly. The main culprits were in the secondary, which should be mitigated by keeping Johnson and Hill more omnipresent on the field.
Martindale also called an ill-timed zero-blitz that led to Fresno State’s only touchdown. Ja’Den McBurrows made a poor tackle attempt but had no safety help to clean things up. With this team’s front seven, a zero blitz is too much risk for little reward. It leaves your secondary exposed unnecessarily when you could rush four or five and likely get the same amount of pressure. If Keene can sense it and exploit it, you can bet Ewers will, too.
Texas on Defense
The key addition here is actually on the coaching staff. Johnny Nansen is on board as co-defensive coordinator after helping Jedd Fisch (now with Washington) put together an improbable turnaround at Arizona. He joins former sole DC Pete Kwiatkowski and brought rotational tackle Tiaoalii Savea along with him to bolster the Longhorn defensive line.
That defensive line, for better or worse, will be a focal point after losing 2024’s all-world defensive tackles. Byron Murphy II went in the first round of the draft. His co-pilot T’Vondre Sweat went in the second after winning the Outland Trophy. Having do-everything tackles changes the entire complexion of a defense. They eat up double-teams, crush the pocket, and free up ends and linebackers to make plays in coverage and the backfield. It’s not a simple switch-flick to replace game breakers like that.
Nonetheless, the Longhorns have enough talent elsewhere to remain a top-tier unit. Onetime Michigan commit Ethan Burke played off the edge last year and led the team with 5.5 sacks. UTSA transfer Trey Moore will also be a problem. The edge rusher set school records for the Roadrunners on TFLs (18) and sacks (14) in his last two seasons respectively.
The secondary will be the main cause for concern, though some of that is game-dependent. When Sarkisian’s offense is rolling, opponents have to attack through the air to keep up. It’s a unit that was exploited in the CFP by Michael Penix and the Huskies but brings in former Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba to solidify the back line.
Michigan on Offense
This game’s biggest X-factor. Were Kirk Campbell and Sherrone Moore purposefully playing things conservatively to keep Texas guessing in the film room? Or is it a ‘that’s a feature, not a bug’ type of situation? Can the offensive line gel rapidly and phase out the communication issues? What’s going on with Donovan Edwards and Alex Orji?
Michigan will need to answer these questions emphatically to stand a chance in this game. The defense is a good bet to hold up their end of the bargain, but if the offense can’t return the favor this could turn into a slog.
Positive takeaways from last week include Kalel Mullings, a revelatory running option, and Colston Loveland the nigh-unguardable tight end. The offensive line also settled down in the second half, and after some first-game jitters, it’s reasonable to expect Moore and Grant Newsome to have that group in a better position for Week Two. It’d be good to get Edwards involved through the air, too. Having him on the field with Mullings and Loveland would create consistent defensive mismatches.
The Bottom Line
Thinking it through logically, based on the season’s sample size thus far, this is likely a Texas win. Wolverine fans would do well to steel themselves for that possibility. A loss wouldn’t unravel the season, especially if the playbook opens up and they look more in sync than last week.
The Longhorns are a more well-rounded team right now and should emerge victorious. That said, if Michigan’s defensive line is breaking through and shaking Ewers, it won’t be as comfortable as last week’s win over the Rams.
Final Score: Texas 21, Michigan 16
