The Summer wanes, the leaves change, and autumn lies in wait. There is football in the air.
Unless you’re the Michigan Wolverines, in which case, statistically speaking, football is predominantly on the ground. Last season’s national champions won’t be able to improve on 2023’s perfect season, but they’ll be chomping at the bit to match it. The first roadblocks on that path are the Fresno State Bulldogs.
Head coach Jeff Tedford put together a respectable 9-4 record in 2023. That included wins over Power Four (formerly Power Five, RIP Pac-12) opponents Purdue and Arizona State. It culminated in a New Mexico Bowl win and some great vibes for a program in good hands…until Tedford abruptly left the team in July due to health concerns.
Interim head coach Tim Skipper takes over an experienced offense and a revamped defense which should help the Bulldogs compete for the top spot in the Mountain West. In all, this is a solid Group-of-Five program that will be looking for an upset special against the defending champs.
When Michigan Has The Ball
This will be a test of unproven commodities. Michigan has one returning starter (Colston Loveland), a new-look offensive line, and several variable outcomes. Much of that variability will stem from quarterback performance. Word from Fall camp is that Alex Orji will lead the charge, but backup Davis Warren played well enough to keep his name in the conversation. The team may even explore multiple-quarterback packages to make use of both Warren’s arm and Orji’s legs.
On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs return several starters. Headlining the returners is experienced linebacker Malachi Langley, their leading tackler a year ago. They also bring in a few high-profile USC transfers former five-star edge Korey Foreman and linebacker Tuasivi Nomura. Those new faces should bolster a defense that gave up 30 points per game last year.
The Wolverines would do well to ease into a groove here. Lean on Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings to establish the run. Give Alex Orji a few quick, high-percentage throws to build confidence and gain momentum. Slot Semaj Morgan supposedly had an impressive Fall camp and established himself as a key to the offense. Get him the ball in space and let him go to work.
For Fresno State, this will be their best chance to catch Michigan off guard. They can attack the unproven line with stunts and blitzes to try and get the Wolverines off schedule, force Alex Orji into tough throws, and put them behind the sticks. The Bulldogs could be a thorn in the passing attack and leave Michigan fans wringing their hands about the offense after Game One. Ultimately, however, the Wolverines’ pounding run game should put them ahead.
When Fresno State Has The Ball
The strength-on-strength side of the matchup is an unfortunate draw for the Bulldogs. Defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are arguably the best tandem in the country and plays in their direction will be tough sledding. There’s not much relief on the outside, either. Edges Josaiah Stewart and Derrick Moore are, in Harbaugh-ian parlance, known friends and trusted agents. The secondary includes Thorpe candidate Will Johnson and a safety room that runs four-deep with starter-caliber players.
They’ll be a daunting palisade in front of returning starter Mikey Keene. The undersized transfer from UCF tossed 24 touchdowns and nearly 3000 yards a year ago while completing 67% of his passes, and was the Offensive MVP of the New Mexico Bowl. He will be asked to stand and deliver in the pocket against Wink Martindale’s tenacious defense. Malik Sherrod should reliably shoulder the rushing load. The scatback will look to build on a promising 2023 after running for nearly a thousand yards and ten touchdowns. He’ll be trouble out of the backfield.
The offensive line was a sore spot but returns four starters. Continuity in the trenches is always worth something, and even marginal improvement should make the unit serviceable. The most promising pieces are center Mose Vavao and left tackle Jacob Spomer, both of whom have all-conference potential.
If Keene gets the ball out quickly the Bulldogs could find a rhythm. They’ll likely test the new CB2 Jyaire Hill and nickel Zeke Berry. Sherrod is a great back for the Mountain West, but it’ll be tough to find daylight against this front seven. If the Wolverines shut down the run and force the Bulldogs to become one-dimensional, there won’t be much room to operate, even for a feisty gamer like Keene.
The Bottom Line + Predictions
Michigan is heavily favored and should be able to handle Fresno State. Nonetheless, this is a better opening opponent than the Wolverines’ last three. Michigan largely dominated Western Michigan in 2021, Colorado State in 2022, and East Carolina in 2023. The Bulldogs will be a step up. A marginal step up, but a step up nonetheless. They finished 79th in the Football Power Index last year, and are projected to finish in about the same range this year. The closest Fresno State comparison of those listed above was WMU, who finished 75th in 2021 FPI. Michigan, for reference, was first last year and is projected just outside the top 10 this year.
Ultimately, this game should allow the Wolverines to start ramping up all their new on-field additions and see if the Fall practice hype is for real. If they’re able to control the game, they might also be able to preserve starters in the second half while providing meaningful snaps and experience to the second team. If the offense sputters, they could find themselves in a very irritating rock fight (ask Florida State how that goes).
PREDICTIONS:
- Alex Orji struggles to throw the ball but flashes his potential. 50% completed passes, one touchdown on the air, and one on the ground.
- 100-yard games from Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings.
- Fresno State marches down the field at least once in the first half – either their opening drive or a two-minute drill before the half.
- Korey Foreman gives Michigan’s right tackle (Evan Link?) the business and forces them to play away from his side of the field.
- 31-10, Michigan, but Fresno State goes on to another 9-win season and Tim Skipper does well enough to remove ‘interim’ from his title.
Let’s play some football.
