It is less than three weeks from UCF’s 2024 football season kicking off and there are burning questions. Allow Last Word on Sports to give you some football-grade aloe.
1. Is this a better team than last year?
This is probably the broadest question looming over the 2024 UCF football season. Losing wide receiver Javon Baker to the NFL and edge Josh Celiscar to the transfer portal hurts, but the portal giveth and taketh away. The Knights were very aggressive in the transfer portal. Per Rivals, the Knights finished sixth in team transfer portal rankings. Celiscar and defensive back Corey Thornton are out. In are edge Nyjalik Kelly from Miami and defensive back Tre’Quon Fegans from USC. On paper, this is an upgrade. The only position group that took a noticeable hit was wide receiver. Baker was the top wideout and while UCF did bring in players, none have the resume Baker has. Someone, be it a member of the 2023 team or a newcomer, will have to step up.
With that said, you can argue that the offense is going to be more run-focused with transfers, quarterback KJ Jefferson from Arkansas and running back Peny Boone from Toledo, joining Doak Walker Watch List running back RJ Harvey. Boone is the reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year and is built even bigger than Harvey. This is going to be a team that wears you down in the second half.
2. What does Jefferson bring to the UCF offense?
Jefferson, a graduate transfer from Arkansas, comes to UCF with three years of starting quarterback experience. While the Razorbacks took a step back last year, what Jefferson brings doesn’t change. At six-foot-three-incheas and 245 pounds, Jefferson is built like a wrecking ball. He won’t need to run as much as John Rhys Plumlee did, but his running style can wear opposing defenses down in the second half. Jefferson can also throw the ball and his ceiling as a passer is higher than Plumlee’s. The Knights’ receiver corps isn’t as strong as last year with the loss of Baker, but Jefferson still has proven weapons in Kobe Hudson and Xavier Townsend and rising tight end Randy Pittman Jr.
3. Will the defense take a step forward?
One of the biggest questions UCF needs to answer is regarding the defense. The problem wasn’t so much the players. It was coaching. Addison Williams was a first-time defensive coordinator and it showed. While the defensive backs, his specialty, did well, there were a lot of problems elsewhere. Gus Malzahn addressed this by moving Williams back to focusing primarily on the defensive backs while learning the craft from new defensive coordinator Ted Roof. Roof might be familiar to older Knights fans as he was hired at the end of 2011 for a cup of coffee before jumping over to Penn State one month later. Roof brings decades of defensive coordinator experience to Orlando. He will also be working as the linebackers coach, which should help this much-maligned position group.
4. What’s the ceiling on this team?
UCF in 2024 has a favorable schedule that could lead to some good opportunities. After a couple of soft opponents at home to open the season, the Knights go on the road to Forth Worth in Week Three for a primetime matchup on Fox with TCU. This is the first conference game of the season. Three weeks later, the Knights hit the road again for an in-state matchup with the Florida Gators. Last Word on Sports’ Andrew McCleary rated the UCF/Florida game as the fourth-best non-conference game for the Big 12. Based on preseason rankings, the two toughest games on UCF’s schedule are against the Arizona Wildcats on November 2nd and the Utah Utes on November 29th, both at home. The game against Arizona will be UCF’s annual Space Game. It’s worth noting that UCF is currently 7-0 in Space Games. The Black Friday game against Utah is already slated as a primetime game on Fox. It’s back to the question of what is the ceiling on this 2024 UCF football team. Starting with the floor, based on this favorable schedule, the Knights should be looking at eight wins or more. Ceiling-wise, UCF has a realistic chance to win every game on the schedule. The Knights avoid Kanas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State completely while getting Arizona and Utah at home.
This is UCF’s second season as a member of the Big 12 and the coaches have done everything right off the field. Aside from the strong transfer portal recruiting, the Knights hit program-best numbers in their high school recruiting. Knights fans and administration have long said that they are a sleeping giant and only wanted a chance. So far, they are backing it up off the field. Now they need to deliver on the field.
5. Is this a make-or-break year for Malzahn?
Normally, three years is the magic number to give coaches to prove themselves in a new program. Malzahn got a bit of a mulligan for 2023 as it was UCF’s first in the Big 12 and the administration expected that there would be some growing pains. There were growing pains, but not in the way everyone expected. In terms of talent, UCF was able to run with every opponent. Last year, the Knights struggled to finish teams off and choked some winnable games away. Choking away victories like the Knights did against Baylor and Texas Tech isn’t going to cut it. Malzahn needs to instill a killer instinct in his program or it could come back to bite him. As stated above, the team has a favorable schedule and needs to finish in the top half of the conference.
