The 2024 Ohio State football schedule may not be the murderer’s row that, say, Florida has to contend with. However, a few games should be circled as big games. The Buckeyes enter year six of the Ryan Day era. However, an unfortunate cloud is hanging above him from fans and detractors alike. Many claim that he cannot win big games.
What could we define as a “big game”? The games against Michigan certainly qualify and Day is currently sporting a 1-3 mark. If getting to the Big Ten Championship counts, Day is 2-0…but he hasn’t been back since 2020. In the College Football Playoff, Ohio State has made three appearances. Over those three appearances, the Buckeyes are 1-3 with two narrow losses. In non-CFP bowls, Ohio State is an even 1-1. Recency bias highlights the ugly Cotton Bowl loss from a season ago.
We could look at non-Michigan Big Ten foes, but only Penn State has been even remotely close to contending and Day is a perfect 5-0 against the Nittany Lions. Outside of the Big Ten is another conversation. Day is 11-1 in regular-season non-Big Ten contests with two wins over Notre Dame but a loss at home to Oregon.
So, whether or not the big game criticisms of Day are warranted, 2024 provides an opportune chance to erase any doubts.
Ryan Day’s Alleged Big Game Demons Can Be Exorcised in 2024
A Weak Non-Conference Schedule
Credit where credit is due — or criticism where criticism is due — the Buckeyes’ non-conference slate is not inspiring. After years of clowning on the SEC and Michigan for their respective weak non-conference slates, the chickens have come home to roost for Buckeye fans.
Given, that this year was supposed to be year one of a home-and-home series with Washington. Because the Huskies are joining the Big Ten, the series could not be completed as scheduled. Given, there are some programs out there who are set to play an in-conference foe but it won’t count (SEE: Baylor at Utah, Arizona at Kansas State, Army vs. Navy).
Over the last two seasons, Notre Dame propped up the difficulty outside of the Big Ten (plus 2022 MAC Champion, Toledo). This year, the Buckeyes play host to Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall. When taking into consideration five preseason rankings (Phil Steele, Athlon Sports, ESPN FPI, College Football News, and Kelley Ford), it’s a weak group. Akron has an average ranking of 129, WMU is at 111.8, and Marshall is the “best” at 92.6.
Day’s squad should be able to tune up and perfect the process over the first three weeks.
Welcome to the Big Ten
The first actual test of the year may be the biggest of the regular season. A trip to Oregon will be the first chance to clear Day’s big game perception.
Making no bones about it, the Ducks look good. Oregon is among the favorites to not only take the Big Ten but win the entire College Football Playoff and for good reason.
Dillon Gabriel transferred in to fill the shoes left by Bo Nix. He jumps into a fantastic situation with two of the top receivers in the Big Ten in Tex Johnson and Evan Stewart. The latter is a brand-new transfer to the program from Texas A&M and is set to take over the offense. Plus, Jordan James is set to take over at running back after running for 759 yards and 11 touchdowns as the second option last year. Plus, the Ducks are set up front. They have two of the top tackles in the Big Ten with Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius.
Needless to say, the Buckeyes’ defense will be tested. Oregon finished second in the country in both scoring and total offense.
On the other side, the Ducks will have a solid defense with a healthy mix of returning starters and portal acquisitions. Jeffrey Bassa and Jestin Jacobs are two top-end linebackers who will make the Buckeyes’ run game difficult. On the back end, Oregon rebuilt its secondary with four transfers, led by former Washington corner, Jabbar Muhammad.
This game will more than likely end up a top-five matchup by the time the game rolls around. That is, of course, barring the Buckeyes don’t slip up against Iowa a week before. The Hawkeyes will be a big game for the Buckeyes, too. But, in comparison to the trip to Eugene, it’ll be easy to overlook.
That Team Up North
When polling Ohio State fans, there is a healthy contingent that would say they’d be satisfied with a 1-11 season if that one win was over Michigan. The rivalry lost no steam when Ohio State went on a 17-2 run and Michigan built on its lead in the all-time series over the last three years. Jobs have been lost solely based on performances against Michigan. John Cooper was 111-43-4 at Ohio State, an objectively great record. However, he went 1-10-1 against Michigan and had National Championship-worthy seasons derailed by the Wolverines. He won 10+ games five times but couldn’t get over the Michigan hump.
Day has been called Cooper 2.0 by the more pessimistic sect thanks to his 1-3 mark to the Winged Helmets. With a perceived super squad in 2024, this year’s matchup is even more must-win than it has been. Considering beating Michigan is the end-all, be-all in Columbus — and vice versa in Ann Arbor — both sides will be giving it everything they have.
Looking at the matchup four and a half months ahead, Michigan looks like it will take a step back from its National Championship-winning team. However, while the Wolverines lost what felt like 50 players to the NFL, they did not lose as much through the portal with the coaching change.
Sherrone Moore is technically 4-0 as head coach, but the wins over Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State are inexplicably credited to Jim Harbaugh despite his serving a three-game suspension stemming from the sign-stealing cheating scandal.
It doesn’t matter if Michigan is 11-0 or 0-11 at this point in the year, both teams are going to battle as if their lives depend on it. Day’s job may, whether it’s right or wrong.
More College Football Playoff Fun
Assuming the Buckeyes can take care of business, the Big Ten Championship would be next up. A rematch with Oregon is not off the table. Then, barring a meltdown unlike anything Ohio State has seen in a while, the expanded CFP awaits.
In his time at the helm, Day has fared well in the CFP. In 2019, the loss to Clemson could easily have gone the Buckeyes’ way. Then, Ohio State got Clemson back in a dominant win but ultimately fell to Alabama in the National Championship. Would it have made a difference if the Buckeyes had not been ravaged by COVID and Trey Sermon hadn’t been knocked out in the second quarter? Perhaps, perhaps not. That Alabama team was loaded.
Most recently, the Buckeyes drew Georgia who went on to win its second-consecutive title after the narrow victory. Sure, the hit on a defenseless Marvin Harrison, Jr. could be singled out. However, Ohio State still blew two separate two-score leads. To make it worse, the offense looked like it was clicking in the final drive. C.J. Stroud scrambled to the Georgia 31 with 24 seconds to go and two timeouts remaining. Then, they took their foot off the gas. A failed first-down run was followed by a pair of incompletions and the infamous missed field goal.
Window of Opportunity
Despite that failure, Ohio State has the opportunity to rectify past struggles this year. Doubters will continue to doubt. However, if Day can lead the Buckeyes to wins in the quarterfinals, semifinals, and the National Championship, the proverbial monkey would be off his back.
The saying goes, “If ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas.” It will be on Day and his team to rise to the occasion and win the big games on the schedule.
