As Don Shula once said “Sure, luck means a lot in football. Not having a good quarterback is bad luck.” The Penn State Nittany Lions enter the 2024 college football season with a prototypical signal caller in Drew Allar. He has had one full season as a starting quarterback under his belt. Allar will look to take a step forward as he enters his second full season. The success of the team, and Allar himself, will be dependent on his ability to adapt to key changes in year two for Drew.
Drew Allar Year Two Expectations for Penn State
Allar’s experiences last year elevated expectations for year two. It will be a constant storyline as he navigates familiar foes as well as new ones coming into the Big Ten. Any improvements in his stats, in particular against the marquee opponents on the Penn State schedule, will likely put him into conversations for the Davey O’Brien Award (top quarterback) and the Heisman Trophy.
Looking back, Allar came to Penn State as a heralded recruit out of Medina, Ohio. He was one of the top quarterback prospects in the country. At 6’-5” and 243 lbs, he has all the physical tools needed to succeed in the Big Ten. As a true freshman in 2022, Allar played in 10 games, gaining some good experience. His appearances included opponents such as Purdue, Auburn, Michigan, and Utah in the Rose Bowl Game.
Looking Back at 2023
Overall Passing Performance
Any young starting quarterback in a major conference is bound to experience some growing pains. Allar performed well against lesser teams. However, he turned into more of a game manager against the premier opponents. His ability to put his stamp on the key matchups in 2024 (such as Ohio State, UCLA, USC, and Wisconsin) will be a key indicator of the team’s chances to contend for the Big Ten title.
Including his performance in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Allar threw for 2,631 yards on the season, which ranked him #54 in FBS. The jaw-dropping stats were his touchdowns vs. interceptions. His ratio of 25 touchdowns to only two interceptions (23 to one excluding the bowl game) is fairly staggering, especially considering the types of opponents Penn State matched up against. The 25 touchdowns ranked him 18th in FBS. His completion percentage was serviceable but not great at 59.9% and he averaged 179 yards per game.
While there should not be an expectation of running play packages being built into Allar’s playbook, he is nimble enough on his feet to do damage when necessary. He finished the 2023 season with 74 carries for 210 yards and 4 touchdowns. This included 10 carries for 49 yards and a touchdown against Michigan. With changes on the offensive line in 2024 and 2023 starters getting drafted to the NFL, that can mean more pressure. This is an area of Allar’s game that bears watching especially early in the year.
Playing Up or Down to Competition
To compare, in breaking his statistics down a bit further, Allar was a different player against tougher competition. Looking at the opponents that were ranked in the Top 25 (Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, and Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl), he completed 72 of 140 passes (51.4% completion percentage) for 722 yards (180 yards per game) with eight touchdowns and one interception. These stats are carried by the 31-0 victory over Iowa where Allar played very well; eliminating that matchup (looking at only Ohio State, Michigan, and Ole Miss), he was 47 for 103 (46%) for 556 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception.
Overall, there is a solid baseline from which Allar and the Nittany Lions offense can build. If Allar can look close to the same against the upper-echelon opponents as he does against everyone else, the sky is the limit in 2024.
What Changes Lie Ahead: Expectations in Year Two
As NFL fans can attest, an easy way to turn a promising prospect into a bust is material changes to the offense. History is littered with stories of quarterbacks going through multiple coordinators, offenses, and key teammates, that ultimately stunt their growth. This will be something head coach James Franklin (who has been in recent news for some other things) and Penn State keep an eye on with Allar.
New Coordinator
With the 2024 season right around the corner, Allar is going through a transition. Gone is offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. Into Happy Valley is Andy Kotelnicki. His offense at Kansas was known for its prowess in the running game. It’s no secret that a quarterback’s best friend is a good running game. Kotelnicki’s offense at Kansas had also shown a propensity for big plays, opened up by the running game. This is an area to watch for Allar to develop in 2024, taking the right chances for big plays and converting on them. Danny O’Brien, a familiar face for Allar, takes over as quarterback coach.
🎙️ Mic'd Up: Coach O'Brien – Quarterbacks#WeAre | @DannyOBrienQB pic.twitter.com/Iw9RvxZb3M
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) May 22, 2024
New (and Returning) Teammates
Allar cannot both throw and catch the ball. He’ll need teammates to step up in Year 2 for Drew. Battle-tested running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are returning. The running back by committee approach has worked well so far. They did take a step back statistically (1,654 rushing yards in 2023 vs. 1,928 in 2022) but running back is the least of the offense’s concerns. At receiver, gone is 2023’s leading receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith (transfer to Auburn). In is Julian Fleming (transfer from Ohio State). Wide receiver will be a key component of the offense’s success this year. On the line, notably gone (drafted) are starting tackles Olu Fashanu and Caedan Wallace and center Hunter Nourzad. Allar and the offense will be relying on the continued development from last year’s depth chart and additions like Nolan Rucci from Wisconsin. Also gone is tight end Theo Johnson (Giants).
The Bottom Line for Year 2 for Drew
As the old saying goes, the only constant is change, and Penn State’s offense is working through that. A new coordinator, new receivers, and new offensive line composition will complicate Allar’s ability to hit the ground running early. It is important that Kotelnicki and he are able to get on the same page. With that, the rest of the offense can get in sync.
Allar has all the physical tools and has a solid returning nucleus of teammates (especially at running back). His success in 2024, and that of the Penn State Nittany Lions, will hinge on three key factors. The first is his ability to quickly pick up new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. Second, get the new key contributors on offense up to speed and working together. Third will be Allar’s consistency across opponents, and being able to step up to the level of the defensive competition he faces.
The quarterback is the key to a successful offense. The three factors above will make or break Year 2 for Drew. Success will mean a potential Big Ten championship and Heisman consideration. Failure will mean a long and not happy season (and offseason) in Happy Valley.
Don Shula was right that not having a good quarterback is bad luck. Year two expectations and ultimately his performance have Drew Allar at the forefront for Penn State’s luck this year.
