Bowl season is in full swing, and we’ve already seen some great games. We could get another one in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl with Miami vs Rutgers. Let’s be clear, no one is going to confuse this matchup as a New Year’s Six bowl game, and for good reason. But these two teams getting together do give us a chance to see two different game plans going head to head.
It’s also a chance to see two teams who are both seeking their first bowl win in quite some time. For Rutgers, it last won a bowl game in the 2014 Quick Lane Bowl. In it, the Scarlet Knights knocked off North Carolina 40-21. However, it is worth pointing out that they’ve only made one bowl appearance since then. For Miami, the Hurricanes seeking to end a four-game bowl skid. The Hurricanes’ last bowl win came in the 2016 Russel Athletic Bowl over West Virginia.
While many argue that bowl games don’t matter, for these two programs, this is a game that could mean a lot, not only for this season but for the future, as well.
How We Got Here
Rutgers comes into this one at 6-6. Not a great record, but it had a decent year, especially when you consider that we’re discussing Rutgers. The bigger concern for the Scarlet Knights is that they come into this one on a four-game losing streak. During that streak, the margin of defeat has been 20 points per game. It’s worth pointing out that three of those four came against ranked teams (Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State.) But the lack of competitiveness has to be a concern.
Rutgers has a good record against mediocre to bad teams. Rutgers’ record against the better teams? Not so good. The good news for this team is that there aren’t many people who would consider Miami to be above average.
For the Hurricanes, they enter this matchup at 7-5. After a 4-0 start to the season, disaster struck, and it was of their own doing. With a chance to move to 5-0, Miami had a late lead over Georgia Tech. Then, in one of the most questionable time management debacles we’ve ever seen, Mario Cristobal and the Canes elected not to kneel to run the clock out. A few seconds later, the Yellow Jackets won via a Hurricanes fumble and a 44-yard touchdown pass.
Following that catastrophe, the Hurricanes’ season turned into a roller coaster ride, going 3-4 the rest of the way. Without the Georgia Tech loss, could we be talking about Miami in a different light? Maybe, but due to coaching malpractice, we’ll never know.
What to Expect from Rutgers
For the Scarlet Knights, the game plan is to keep things low-scoring. They’re reliant upon a good defense to lead the way. They want to create a physical, ugly style of play that shortens the game. Coming into the Pinstripe Bowl, they rank 123rd in yards per game, and 104th in points per game. Put simply, on the offensive side of the ball, they’re inept.
If they plan on having success, it’ll almost certainly have to come on the ground. Quarterback Gavin Wimsatt only averages six yards per pass attempt, but does have good wheels. Rutgers also has a 1,000-yard rusher in Kyle Monangai. Against a depleted Hurricanes defensive line, expect the Knights to focus on keeping the ball on the ground.
On the other side, the Rutgers defense is solid. It ranks 19th in yards allowed, and 29th in points per game allowed. Led by its linebacking corps of Mohamed Toure and Deion Jennings, expect the Scarlet Knights to virtually eliminate any success Miami could potentially have over the middle. If they can keep up the intensity on that side of the ball, they will certainly have a chance in this matchup.
The Miami Game Plan
For the Hurricanes, the game plan could end up having to against how they’ve played all season. They’ve been a balanced attack offensively for much of the year. For this game, that likely needs to change. They come into this one ranked 24th in yards per game, and 35th in scoring. With the solid Rutgers linebackers, and physical defensive backs that force plenty of turnovers, big plays are going to be the key.
Can the Canes receivers use their speed to get past the Scarlet Knights secondary? Furthermore, with Miami on their 3rd string quarterback, can Jacurri Brown be accurate enough with the ball to put these throws on the money? It’ll be Brown’s first start of the season, and only the third start of his career. Going up against a physical defense like Rutgers won’t be an easy task.
On the defensive side, Miami ranks 26th in yards allowed. It ranks 40th in scoring defense. However, despite solid ranks on that side of the ball, the Canes’ defense has seen plenty of players opting out of the bowl game or entering the transfer portal. The question becomes whether a young, somewhat makeshift Miami defense can continue to stifle the nonexistent Rutgers offense.
Pinstripe Bowl Prediction
This is almost certainly going to end up being an ugly, low-scoring affair. That style of game gives a huge advantage to the Scarlet Knights. Adding in the fact that the Pinstripe Bowl is played at Yankee Stadium, you realize that it’s a virtual home game for Rutgers, as well. With it being less than a two-hour drive from the Rutgers campus, expect Scarlet Knights fans to take over the stadium. This home-field advantage could play a role.
And while the Hurricanes have the better athletes, questions about who will be playing is a major concern. Put roster concerns, and add them to a quarterback making only his third start, and things could get complicated in a hurry for Miami.
In a regular season matchup, with both teams fully healthy and playing, the Canes would have a clear edge. However, with bowl season being a bit of a free-for-all, and the location favoring Rutgers in a major way, lean on the Scarlet Knights to pull off the upset and pick up their first bowl win in nearly a decade.
Rutgers 21, Miami 16
