It’s another top-15 showdown in the Lone Star State. The 14th-ranked Arizona Wildcats are set to take on the 12th-ranked Oklahoma Sooner in the 2023 Valero Alamo Bowl. The matchup is slated to start at 8:15 pm CST live from the iconic Alamodome in San Antonio. This Pac-12 vs. Big 12 tilt should be, at least on paper, one of the best bowl contests of this bowl season.
Wildcats Seeking 10-Win Season
Arizona began 2023 with a pedestrian 3-3 start but finished the season hot by winning six straight to go 9–3 for the regular season. Their three losses came in heartbreaking fashion: one-score losses at Mississippi State, against Washington, and a triple-overtime defeat at USC. They are looking to prove themselves to the Big 12 conference, of which they will be members beginning next fall. It’s been a remarkable turnaround in year three under head coach Jedd Fisch, who went just 1-11 in 2021 in his first year with the program. Now after Fisch’s statement third season at the helm, Arizona has been able to successfully fend him off from potential suitors in the coaching carousel. The Wildcats are looking to secure their first 10-win season since 2014.
Passing Game Fuels Powerful Offense
After taking over for starter Jayden De Laura, freshman phenom Noah Fifita had a meteoric rise in 2023. He completed nearly 74% of his passes for 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Even more impressive, his 85.5 QBR ranked sixth-best in the entire country. Overall, he led an offense that averaged 453.4 yards per game, good enough for 17th in the nation. 34.3 points per game was 21st nationally, with the strength coming from the passing game at 304.5 yards per game (12th). AP All-Pac-12 First Team left tackle Jordan Morgan opting out of this matchup hurts. Overall, however, this is a dangerous offense that’s nearly full-strength coming into the 2023 Valero Alamo Bowl. Sophomore Tetairoa McMillan had a breakout sophomore campaign, putting up 80 catches for 1,242 yards and 10 scores. Senior Jacob Cowing led the team with 83 catches and 11 scores. Both parts of the dynamic duo are expected to play in the game.
Defensively, the Wildcats defense will look much different. Eight different players have hit the transfer portal, and this unit’s depth as a whole will be tested. Regardless, this is a solid defense with plenty of talent waiting in the wings. They allowed 20.8 points per game against high-octane Pac-12 offenses. Quarterbacks picked up only 229.6 yards through the air on 59.8% completion. Running backs only averaged 3.4 yards per carry and 111.7 yards per game.
Sooners’ Offense in Question
Oklahoma finished 10-2 on the year, also suffering one-possession losses at Kansas and at rival Oklahoma State in Bedlam. They are on their way out of the Big 12, heading to the SEC in 2024. The Sooners are also on a hot streak, winners of three straight and looking to make it four before heading into the big transition. It’s been a nice turnaround for second-year head coach Brent Venables, who finished 2022 with a 6-7 record. In year two, he’s looking to secure the program’s first 11-win finish since 2021. Oddly enough, that 11th victory also came in the Alamo Bowl.
The Sooners offense continued their dominant trend in 2023. 502.4 yards per game ranked fifth nationally, to go along with a third-ranked scoring clip of 43.2 points per game. However, the transfer portal has really reared its ugly head and wrecked this Oklahoma offense. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is now an Oregon Duck, and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby is now the new head coach of the Mississippi State Bulldogs. These two were the primary cogs in the wheel that helped put up such gaudy statistics. Besides the wide receiver core, this offense will look completely unfamiliar. Into the fire steps five-star true freshman Jackson Arnold, who’s only thrown two dozen passes on the season. Arnold has shown promise and is a dual threat with boundless upside. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the newfound pressure and collects himself, as his lack of experience will undoubtedly be something the Wildcats defense preys upon.
Defensively, the Sooners have allowed 390.3 yards per game. They’ve had a difficult time defending the run by allowing 4.1 yards per rush. Nineteen interceptions have been an upside and have helped them close drives. This unit has struggled down the stretch, however. Over the past eight games, they’ve allowed an average of over 29 points per game, with each opponent scoring over 20. It will be a very tall task to rebound against a high-powered offensive attack such as Arizona’s.
Prediction
This game has all the makings of another Texas-style shootout. Arizona’s strength will remain with its potent offensive attack. Oklahoma will need to rely more on its defense, which did not look promising to close out the regular season. The 2023 Valero Alamo Bowl will come down to Arizona’s defensive game plan against Oklahoma’s inexperienced offensive outlook. It also boils down to the Sooners pressuring Fifita to attempt to force mental errors and takeaways. The Sooners have offensive depth and talent, but will the transfer portal end up costing them this contest? The Wildcats seem to have too much firepower remaining on a nationally-heralded offense. It’s hard to trust Oklahoma’s offensive personnel with so many new faces slated to make appearances. It’s also difficult to imagine the Sooners being able to keep up and score with the Cats after being decimated by the portal.
Arizona 41, Oklahoma 34
