The final week of the College Football regular season is here, and rivals will face off around the country. South Carolina and Clemson are set to play in a highly anticipated game for these fanbases. Although it does not receive great recognition outside of the Palmetto State, this rivalry is cold, bitter, and full of hate. There is no professional football team in South Carolina. College football is king, and people are either born in garnet or orange. It’s the matchup that will determine bragging rights, social media firestorms, and even family dynamics for another 365 days. Gamecocks vs. Tigers, it’s rivalry week in South Carolina.
The lead-in to this game is simple. Clemson is more vulnerable than they have been in 10 years. That has been the narrative among Gamecock fans for much of the season. But now the Tigers are hot, and their defense is still elite. The records can typically be thrown out the window when these two teams play. This year feels a bit different. Turnovers, quarterback play, defensive fronts, and the atmosphere will all play a role in the outcome on Saturday. The Gamecocks and Tigers both come into rivalry week on three-game winning streaks, but only one can finish the season with a victory.
Turnovers
The most obvious factor to watch in this matchup is turnovers. Taking the ball away from the opposing team is key in every football game, but it is elevated to number one in this matchup. Clemson has been turnover-prone for most of the season. Looking back at last year’s rivalry game between the Gamecocks and Tigers shows that turnovers were a problem for Clemson even then. The Tigers are 7-4 on the season but worked their way back into the College Football Playoff Top 25 at number 24 this week. However, their momentum can be slowed if the Gamecocks can force turnovers. Clemson has turned the ball over in every single game this season, bringing the total to 20 turnovers on the year. They have managed to take the ball away 22 times to stay at plus two in the turnover margin.
The Gamecocks’ luck in the turnover department changed as of late. After three straight games where the defense created zero turnovers, Carolina has taken the ball away nine times in their three-game winning streak. This brings the total takeaways to 16 on the season for the Gamecocks. The offense has only turned it over 11 times. Clemson is better than Carolina on paper. The Tiger’s defense is still elite and the running game on offense is a bad matchup for the Gamecocks. However, if Carolina’s defense creates turnovers, then all bets are off. Short fields could come into play, and momentum in a raucous Williams-Brice Stadium will become a factor.
QB Run
Over the course of the season, we have talked regularly about the South Carolina defense and their need to stop the run. However, during the course of the year, upon stopping the run, the garnet and black secondary were exposed on multiple occasions. Clemson offensive coordinator Garrett Riley wants to run the ball in this matchup. Cade Klubnik has been questionable as a quarterback throughout the year, and although he looked much better in the last three weeks, the Tigers will still try to establish the run first. Clemson does not have the wide receiver talent to win the game passing alone. Tyler Brown has become a legitimate threat, and Jake Briningstool provides a mismatch for the Tigers at tight end. However, Klubnik’s legs are a major key in this game. Riley will run the quarterback, and despite his small stature, Klubnik has proven to be a productive runner.
On offense, Carolina may need to utilize the quarterback run as well. In the past couple of games, Spencer Rattler showed that he is willing to take off and run. He bailed Carolina out of multiple bad spots against Kentucky. The Wildcats dropped in a zone and covered up Gamecock receivers. For this reason, Rattler had space to run for first downs on multiple occasions. If Clemson takes a similar strategy to double up Xavier Legette, Rattler will have the same rushing opportunities. There will also likely be more LaNorris Sellers at quarterback for the Gamecocks this week. With the running back room still banged up and low on scholarship players, Sellers brings another able-bodied runner to the backfield. His legs could make a big difference. Look for him to surprise Clemson and attempt to throw the ball downfield as well.
Luck Of The Draw
The rivalry between the Gamecocks and the Tigers rotates annually between Memorial Stadium in Clemson and Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia. This season, the game is a home game for the Gamecocks. It is also a night game. Carolina has won the last eight home games under the lights dating back to 2022. There is a higher expectation of winning in that environment, and Rattler has played up to a higher mark in the home atmosphere. The crowd noise and advantage for the Gamecocks will disappear if Clemson can start fast and put space between the two teams on the scoreboard. Carolina needs to survive the second quarter, which has plagued them all season. But if the game is within one score at halftime, the environment will be a factor throughout.
On the flip side, Clemson is 1-3 on the road this season. After the 28-7 beatdown at Duke in Week 1, the Tiger’s other losses on the road have been close. The matchups with Miami and NC State both came down to the wire. That is the expectation in this game as well. Clemson’s wins are dominant in 2023, with the exception of an ugly game against Wake Forest. So, if the Tigers win, it likely comes in a game where they limit their turnovers, Klubnik hurts Carolina with his legs, and the margin of victory is more than one score. If the Gamecocks can keep it close for four quarters, their chances of winning increase as the game goes along.
Expectations
This game is always difficult to predict. Last season, the Tigers were riding a seven-game streak against the Gamecocks in the annual rivalry. The matchup once again looked lopsided, but the Gamecocks pulled off a 31-30 upset at Clemson. This season, the gap between these two programs seems to have narrowed. Although Clemson (-7.5) is more than a touchdown favorite, this game should be close. The defensive line for Clemson is the best South Carolina has seen all season. An improved offensive line for the Gamecocks will have their work cut out for them protecting Rattler. If they can have mild success giving the quarterback some time, the matchup shifts in favor of the Gamecocks with Rattler and Legette against the Tigers’ secondary.
In the end, Clemson will play conservatively to protect the ball but will find an opportunity for a big shot over the top. Rattler will once again run for his life for much of the day, limiting his effectiveness downfield.
Final Score: South Carolina 20 Clemson 28
