The South Carolina and Kentucky series has become a rivalry. Talk around Columbia this week has questioned whether or not the fanbase should embrace this annual matchup as such. The answer is simple: yes. The Gamecocks lead the all-time series 19-14-1. The series dates back to 1937, but the Cocks and the Cats only played three times before South Carolina entered the SEC. Since 1992, the two schools have met every year. Half (17) of the matchups since that 1992 game have ended with a margin of seven or less. The margin of victory has exceeded two touchdowns only seven times. This series is competitive and physical. Not much love is lost between the two fanbases and the two head coaches. In 2023, the Gamecocks must win against the Wildcats if they want to continue their postseason pursuit.
What’s At Stake
Until 2013, South Carolina was a dominant 16-5 over Kentucky. The expectation within the fanbase was to beat Vanderbilt and Kentucky every year. In the last ten years, the Cats have made that expectation disappear. Since 2014, Kentucky is 7-2 against Carolina. In a season where the Gamecocks must win, Shane Beamer and company look to turn last year’s victory into a streak of two wins in a row. South Carolina needs to turn this series back in its favor if they want to see success this season and beyond.
With divisions disappearing in the SEC beginning in 2024, the long-term model for scheduling has yet to be determined. However, regardless of which scheduling model the league selects, it is likely that South Carolina and Kentucky will still meet annually. Each team’s primary rival resides in the ACC and is played as a non-conference game during the last week of the season. Therefore, neither school has a conference rival with which they absolutely must maintain annual games.
This season, the stakes are high. Kentucky comes into the game at 6-4 with a matchup with their rival, Louisville, who happens to be 9-1 and a top 10 team nationally, looming next week. If Kentucky loses in Columbia, they are in serious danger of finishing 6-6 with no signature wins on the resumé. On the other hand, South Carolina is scratching and clawing to reach 6-6 and bowl eligibility. The Gamecocks need a flawless 4-0 in November to accomplish this feat. After dominating Vanderbilt last weekend, tight end Josh Simon, in post-game media availability, described the significance of the win with one word, “Momentum.” Now facing the Wildcats, Carolina looks to continue building momentum.
How To Defend Kentucky
Offensively, the Wildcats’ best weapon is undeniably Ray Davis. As the league’s second-leading rusher with 929 yards on the year, Davis presents a significant threat against a vulnerable Gamecock defense. Outside of Davis, transfer quarterback Devin Leary has not performed up to the standard that many in Lexington and around the SEC expected this season. He is ninth in passing yards and fourteenth in completion percentage. Kentucky has three formidable threats at receiver, and they have used the tight ends in the passing game as of late. Liam Coen has found more balance as the season has gone on, which presents a challenge for the Gamecocks.
If Clayton White wants his unit to get stops, it all starts with Davis. Finding creative ways to nullify him should give Carolina the greatest chance of success. Expect the 3-3-5 looks that White used the past few weeks and more traditional fronts to stack the box. Bam Martin-Scott is the additional linebacker used in the 3-3-5. His athleticism is key in stopping Davis from running the ball and catching it out of the backfield. This is also a game where Nick Emmanwori will often come downhill from his safety position.
How To Score On Kentucky
From a defensive standpoint, the Wildcats are giving up 241 yards through the air and 115 per game on the ground. Opponents average 25 points exactly against Kentucky. South Carolina’s offense needs to exceed that total in order to win. The glaring mismatch is once again with Spencer Rattler and Xavier Legette. Kentucky’s secondary does not tout the type of talent to contain Legette based on the season he is having. The Wildcats have sacked the quarterback 23 times, putting them just outside the top half of teams in the SEC.
The UK defensive front against the offensive line for South Carolina is a massive matchup to watch. The Gamecocks’ offensive line is finally gaining some consistency, starting the same five players for the third week in a row. Rattler will move the offense down the field if they can hold up and give him time. If Kentucky wreaks havoc in the backfield, the Gamecocks’ must-win scenario will end badly.
X-Factors
First, the lack of depth in the South Carolina running back room could become a major story. Mario Anderson has worked his way into the top 10 rushers in the SEC. However, injuries leave freshman DJay Braswell as the lone scholarship back behind Anderson. Braswell was tracking for a redshirt year and shows great promise for the future but lacks experience. He has to step up in the final two weeks of the season.
Williams-Brice Stadium… at night. There is something different about the Gamecocks when they play at home. Add in that it will be under the lights and the momentum gets another shot of adrenaline to kick this one off on Saturday night. The Gamecocks’ young offensive line has operated better in the home environment where they can increase communication. Since that particular line of scrimmage matchup is the primary matchup in the game, the home advantage is particularly important.
Finally, this season, covering receivers in the slot has been a pitfall for South Carolina. This is the eleventh game of the year and a must-win scenario for the Gamecocks against the Wildcats. Kentucky knows this weakness. It is on film from multiple games. White and the defensive staff have to be diligent and creative in putting the best players in coverage positions. Linebackers and nickelbacks have been exposed in matchups favoring the opposition far too often in 2023. If Kentucky can find success exposing these matchups, you can throw the season stats out the window. Leary’s inconsistency and the lack of a dominant receiver will no longer matter.
Set Your Expectations
This is going to be a close game. Neither side will have moments of relaxation or comfort as the game will still be undecided late in the fourth quarter. Davis is averaging 99 yards per game on the ground per game in the SEC, but only 49 in the last three games. Slowing him will keep South Carolina in it. Rattler and Legette will keep the momentum with a big play over the top.
Final Score: South Carolina 28 Kentucky 27
