The NC State Wolfpack currently holds a 4-3 record, with two losses coming from conference opponents. While the Wolfpack have shown flashes of really strong play, they have struggled with turnovers and producing enough points to beat the better teams in the ACC. Against Power Five teams, NC State has yet to eclipse 24 points. Despite their struggles, the Wolfpack are still in a position to finish strong. At the midseason, recapping the Wolfpack is an interesting scenario; the offense has been bad, but the defense is playing at such a high level that there is still hope for NC State.
Offensive Struggles
The Wolfpack’s offensive woes are highlighted by the lack of strong quarterback play. Brennan Armstrong was benched after completing only 58.8% of his passes for 971 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions. He also had 281 yards and three scores on the ground. Replacement MJ Morris has a higher quarterback rating at 117.2 but has only completed 56.9% of throws for 458 yards. Morris has four touchdowns and four interceptions but has only averaged just under two yards per rush. Neither quarterback has shown an ability to drive the ball downfield. Additionally, the quarterbacks have nine interceptions in just seven games.
The rest of the offense has been mediocre. Kevin Concepcion has been the lone bright spot, with 37 catches for 410 yards. Concepcion is the only receiver with more than two touchdowns, and the next best receiver, Brad Rozner only has 14 catches for 145 yards. The run game has been solid, but not great. The Wolfpack are averaging 143 rushing yards per game, with the two-headed attack of Delbert Mimms and Michael Allen taking most of the work. However, neither back has surpassed Armstrong’s 281 rushing yards. All in all, the offense averages 25.4 points per game, which is in the bottom half of FBS schools.
Defense Wins Games?
The defense seems to be the only thing keeping the Wolfpack relevant. Midseason All-American Payton Wilson has dominated at the linebacker position, with 81 tackles, four sacks, two fumble recoveries, and an interception. Wilson has seven-and-a-half tackles for loss as well, and is even tied for the team lead in passes defended with three. Davin Vann has been a solid interior lineman with 3.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss. Red Hibbler has emerged as a good pass rusher, leading the team with 4.5 sacks. The defense only allows 110.9 rushing yards per game and has created a total of 12 turnovers.
The stars of the secondary have been good, but the stat sheet doesn’t show it. Opposing offenses have learned to avoid Aydan White, and rarely throw in his direction. White still has an interception and three pass defenses. Shyheim Battle has been extremely aggressive this season. He has two interceptions but has been burnt for big plays and explosive touchdowns on multiple occasions. The secondary only allows 222 passing yards per game and has been able to keep opponents to just 23.6 points per game.
2nd Half Outlook for NC State
The Wolfpack will continue to fall in the category of “barely relevant” until the offense figures out how to score. The team only mustered three points against Duke and only 10 against Louisville. The turnovers consistently put the defense in bad field position, and the offense cannot recover when the team does allow points. Whether the answer is Morris or Armstrong, the Wolfpack needs to add an explosive element to the offense, getting the ball into the hands of Concepcion, Allen, and Rozner more often. The defense is playing as well as one could expect but will have to keep playing at a high level to keep this anemic offense in games.
Conference play has not been kind to the Wolfpack, as they only have one win, against Virginia. NC State plays a gauntlet of Clemson, Miami, Wake Forest, VT, and UNC to end the season. Clemson, Miami, and UNC have offenses that will be hard to keep up with, and neither of the other opponents are pushovers for a team that can’t produce consistent scoring output.
The early-season prediction for the Wolfpack remains the same. NC State will win games when they score more than 24 points and will lose when they cannot muster that amount. Defensive and special teams scoring will be crucial to aiding this offense unless quarterback play drastically improves.
Rest of Season Prediction: The Wolfpack will beat Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and upset UNC, but lose to Clemson and Miami, finishing at 7-5.
