Among plenty of other prominent games in the college football landscape this week, we get Ole Miss vs. Auburn. While it doesn’t hold quite the same appeal for many as say, Alabama vs Tennessee or Penn State vs Ohio State might, it’s still a tremendously important game for both teams.
For Auburn, it’s a home game that could potentially determine the rest of their season. In their first year under new head coach Hugh Freeze, things have been shaky on the Plains. They sit at 3-3, and a loss in this one could begin to raise questions, especially if the offense continues to struggle. On the flip side, a win over a top-15 Ole Miss team could create real momentum for the Tigers as they start the second half of the season.
For the Rebels, it’s hard to argue that it’s been anything other than a successful season to this point. They come in at 5-1, with the lone loss being on the road at Alabama. And that’s with much of the toughest part of their schedule behind them. If they can avoid the loss here, they can remain in the conversation (albeit slightly) surrounding a potential division title.
It would bring Ole Miss fans plenty of joy to give their former head coach a home loss to add to his early resume at Auburn.
History of the Matchup
This is set to be the 48th meeting between these two schools in football, including vacated wins. Needless to say, the series hasn’t been kind to the Rebels. Overall, Auburn leads the matchup 35-11, if you throw in the vacated 2012 Rebels win. On top of that, Ole Miss is only 3-11 in their last 14 meetings against Auburn. They’re last win at Jordan-Hare Stadium came eight years ago. In fact, they’ve only won at Jordan-Hare three times in program history.
For Rebel fans, the good news is that Ole Miss did manage to knock off Auburn in last year’s matchup, by a score of 48-34. However, before that victory, the Rebels had lost six straight, with only one of those losses coming by single digits.
Regardless of where the two programs have been at, Auburn has consistently been a thorn in the Rebels side. A win this weekend would be two straight in the series for Ole Miss, and could go a long way in terms of easing some of the pessimism in the fan base surrounding this particular matchup every year.
What To Expect
Ole Miss Offense vs Auburn Defense
If you take history out of the equation, Ole Miss is clearly the better team in this matchup. The Ole Miss offense is one that has had success this season, as they sit at second in the SEC in scoring. With Jaxson Dart, Quinshon Judkins, Ulysses Bentley IV, and a wide variety of receivers, the offense shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball. The question is whether they’ll be able to get the ball in the end zone.
On the other side, the Auburn defense is one that has had moderate success this season. They gave up no more than 14 points in any of their three non-conference games so far this season. However, that being said, they’ve given up at least 27 in every SEC game to this point. If Ole Miss can capitalize on the defensive struggles as of late, especially through the air, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. That’s primarily true if they can take care of the other side of the ball.
Auburn Offense vs Ole Miss Defense
Quite simply, Auburn can’t score. In SEC play, they’re averaging 16 points per game. In today’s football, that number won’t win many games. And against a Rebel offense that is expected to hit 27-30 (at least), 16 won’t be enough. For the Tigers, Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford have both struggled to throw the ball, For instance, they’re only averaging 155 yards per game through the air. That won’t be good enough.
The good news for Auburn fans is that they’re averaging 192 yards on the ground so far this season. If they can keep that up, there will at least be a chance for success for the Tigers in this one. But that leads to the biggest issue for Auburn in this one.
The strength of Ole Miss’ defense is their front seven. For instance, they only gave up 36 yards rushing to Arkansas two weeks ago. This week, if the Rebels can slow down the Tigers rushing attack, there’s a good chance they pick up the road win. Even with a shaky Ole Miss secondary, the Auburn passing game doesn’t have the same threat that an LSU passing attack did.
This game is quite literally going to come down to the Rebels’ ability to slow down the rushing game. If they keep Auburn below 200 yards rushing, they win. If they don’t, they end up being upset yet again at Jordan-Hare.
The Bottom Line
This is mainly a game between Ole Miss and fighting history. In every objective historical category, the Rebels lose this football game. They don’t beat Auburn consistently, and they certainly don’t do it on the road at Jordan-Hare. That’s a tall mountain to climb.
However, they are also the better football team in nearly every facet of play on the field. The Rebels’ offense is better both in terms of yards and points. Oh, and certainly in terms of excitement.
On the other side, the two team’s defenses are honestly pretty similar. In fact, Ole Miss is giving up 24 points per game. Auburn? They’re giving up 23. With this game being at Auburn, and knowing the history of these two teams, expect a relatively low-scoring affair.
In normal times with this matchup, low scoring should favor the Tigers. However, the Auburn offense has truly been awful at times this season. This game stays in the 20s, but even with a good defensive performance, Auburn doesn’t put enough points on the board.
Ole Miss battles history, and the strong Tiger defense, and sneaks off the Plains with a massive conference win.
Ole Miss 27, Auburn 23
