The LSU Tigers sit at 5-2 heading into a critical stretch of conference games that will impact both the SEC Championship as well as the College Football Playoffs. Their two losses put them in the unenviable position of needing other teams to lose to crack the door open for the playoffs. The Tigers’ one conference loss allows them to control their destiny in the conference race if Ole Miss loses another game. From losses to stats, numbers are a centerpiece of results and rewards in football. A good way to gain perspective on LSU’s potential this year is to look at the remaining conference opponents on its schedule by the numbers, so let’s get into it.
The Significance of Numbers
Alabama
The next conference opponent is Alabama, and the number is 30. Alabama averages 30.1 points per game, good for 56th in the country. The modest number is less impressive considering they’ve faced the remarkably dominant defenses of Middle Tennessee, South Florida, and Ole Miss.
One could argue that Alabama will likely score more than 30 against LSU’s defense, and that’s a valid point. As of now, LSU’s defense gives up 30 points per game. The counterpoint is the Tiger defense is improving. The same defense that gave up 700 yards to Ole Miss has allowed touchdowns on only three of its opponents’ last 18 drives.
Alabama’s Jalen Milroe has gotten increasingly productive as he’s established himself as the starting quarterback. He’ll need to continue to do so. 30 points will not come close to being enough to outduel an LSU offense that averages 45 points per game.
Florida
Florida’s problematic number is -2. The Gators’ turnover margin for the year is -2, which is tied for 86th in FBS football. Florida’s offense scores 29 points per game, so it’s not built to overcome setbacks like turnovers in a game. Florida gained more first downs and total yards than Utah in their first game of the season but lost the turnover battle and the game.
Many wrote Coach Billy Napier and the Gators off after an ugly loss to Kentucky. Don’t look now, but they only have one conference loss in the year. Graham Mertz won’t get a statue after his tenure, but he did throw for 423 yards against South Carolina. Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall benefited from Mertz’s big game with 166 receiving yards in the same game.
Florida’s defense ranks a respectable 31st in the country, giving up 20 points per game. They also rank in the top 10 in net punting, which combines the punt yardage with returns, with an average of 43 yards per punt. Flipping the field combined with a solid defense is a solid recipe to make things harder for the LSU offense.
Napier not only needs to flip the field but also flip a troubling trend. Florida has won only one of the last six games against the Tigers in Baton Rouge. The Gators are usually a tough opponent as a rival, and they have conflicting numbers in terms of what to expect against LSU.
Texas A&M
It seems like just yesterday Jimbo Fisher was one of the hottest names in coaching searches with big-time programs clamoring for his services. The Aggies face LSU in Baton Rouge this year, and Fisher is a shocking 0-6 on the road since 2022. That’s bad enough to make his 4-8 SEC record in the same span sound pretty good.
On the bright side, Texas A&M only allows 105 rushing yards per game. Those numbers are about as good as any of LSU’s opponents left on the schedule. Not only are the Aggies good up front, but they’re built to get to the passer with four.
This isn’t meant to be overly critical of Fisher; one would have to admit that this run has been impressive in more ways than one. He continues to recruit top 5 classes despite mediocre seasons and also manages to continue to lose with superior talent. Remarkable.
What it Means for LSU
The numbers show that LSU has a legitimate shot to defeat each of its remaining conference opponents. Of course, that doesn’t mean that will happen. The cumulative effect of physical games deep into the season can supersede numbers at times. At that point toughness, discipline, and focus influence results more than stats. Fortunately for the Tigers, they’ll have Army and Georgia State sprinkled in among the conference opponents as essentially byes along the way. Going by the numbers, LSU is still squarely in the hunt for an SEC Championship.
