The Gophers face their toughest task of the season as they take on the #2 Michigan Wolverines in the battle for the Little Brown Jug. The game, which will be televised nationally on NBC, is the 105th match-up between the Big Ten rivals. Michigan boasts a 71-23-3 record against the Gophers, who last beat the Wolverines in 2014. The Gophers have lost three in a row to Michigan and nine of the last ten since 2006.
The Gophers celebrated homecoming with a 35-24 win over the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns after losing back-to-back games to North Carolina and Northwestern. Minnesota is 3-0 at Huntington Bank Stadium this season and has won five of their last six home games. Last week, freshman running back Zach Evans rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown and was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week. Evans followed in the footsteps of fellow Gopher freshman running back Darius Taylor, who received the honor the previous three weeks. Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis had an efficient day and went 12-14 for 146 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Kaliakmanis had two of his highest passer ratings as a starter in each of the past two weeks.
Michigan is 5-0, and they have been dominating opponents so far this season. They have held opponents to six points per game while scoring 34.5 points per game, which is ranked #1 and #26, respectively, in FBS. The Wolverines have been remarkably consistent and held all opponents to under eight points while scoring at least 30 per game. They haven’t played any ranked opponents yet and likely won’t until they play Penn State on November 11th.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 7
- Time 6:30 PM CST
- Location: Huntington Bank Stadium
- TV: NBC
- Radio: KFAN
- Record: Minnesota (3-2 Overall, 1-1 Big Ten), Michigan (5-0 Overall, 2-0 Big Ten)
Betting Line
- Spread: Michigan -19.5
- Over/Under: 46
- Money Line: Minnesota +850, Michigan -1600
Gophers Offense vs. Michigan Defense
The Gophers started the season with a new quarterback, running back, and co-offensive coordinator and have been slow to find their offensive identity. The offense struggled in the first three games and averaged 1.33 touchdowns per game, but have averaged 4.5 in the last two. Minnesota averages 2.6 offensive touchdowns per game, which is tied for #86 in the FBS. The Gophers rank #90 in total offense, #22 in rushing offense, and #121 in passing offense.
Last week against Louisiana, the Gophers offense was balanced and efficient. Kaliakmanis threw two touchdowns to Daniel Jackson, and three Gopher running backs – Evans, Bryce Williams, and Sean Tyler – had at least ten carries. Taylor was out for the game, but the team rushed for over 200 yards without him. The Gophers had 26 first downs on the day and were effective on third downs, converting 7 for 13 attempts.
When the Gophers offense takes the field on Saturday, they will face an elite defensive unit. The Wolverines #1 ranked defense is allowing .6 touchdowns per game. They rank #12 in rushing yards allowed, with 85.6 per game, and rank #7 in passing yards allowed per game, with 160.6. Michigan’s defense has showcased its dominance, yet it’s worth noting that they’ve faced only one opponent ranked in the top 30 for points scored per game. Their schedule featured the following teams in terms of point production rankings: East Carolina (#126), UNLV (#30), Bowling Green (#112), Rutgers (#69), and Nebraska (#111). The Gophers rank #80 in points per game on the season but rank #59 over the last three games by that measure.
Gophers Defense vs. Michigan offense
While the Gophers offense started the season slowly and then improved, the defense has moved in the opposite direction. The Gophers allowed 223.5 yards per game in their first two games and 453.3 yards in their last three. They also allowed eight points per game in their first two games and 30.6 in their last three. The regression is uncharacteristic of Joe Rossi’s defense, which will have its hands full against Michigan.
The Wolverine’s offense is led by quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who has thrown for 1071 yards, ten touchdowns, and three interceptions. McCarthy leads the Big Ten passing efficiency and is completing an eye-popping 79% of his attempts. His primary target is Roman Wilson, who has 19 catches for 326 yards, with an FBS-high eight touchdowns.
McCarthy is protected by an offensive line that was awarded the Joe Moore Award for two consecutive seasons, which is given to the nation’s best offensive line. The Gophers have 11 sacks on the season, and the Wolverines have only given up three. Minnesota will have its work cut out for them to put pressure on McCarthy.
Michigan’s offensive line leads the way for running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Corum has rushed for 425 yards and nine touchdowns, which is tied for #1 in FBS. Michigan will use the running game to control the clock and wear down the Gopher defense. They are one of only two FBS teams that use more than 32 seconds per play, and they rank #22 in time of possession percentage.
Did You Know?
- The Little Brown Jug is the oldest traveling trophy in major college football
- The Gophers and Wolverines have one common opponent this year in Nebraska
- Minnesota has two Michigan natives on its roster: Tyler Stolsky (Portage Central) and Taylor (Walled Lake Western)
- Minnesota is having its best start to the season attendance-wise since 2015
- Taylor has two of the top three rushing performances by a Gopher true freshman
- The Gophers average only 2.8 penalties per game, which is ranked #3 in the FBS
Prediction
The #2 ranked Wolverines are a balanced, deep team with an excellent coach in Jim Harbaugh. They excel in every aspect of the game and will come to Huntington Bank Stadium with the bravado of one of the top teams in college football. Their ball-control offense might not put up gaudy numbers, but they will control the clock and the game.
To be effective on offense, the Gophers need to be successful with explosive plays and limit mistakes by Kaliakmanis. Defensively, they need to put pressure on the Wolverines and limit long drives. Expect a great game-day atmosphere for the nationally televised game, but the Gophers won’t be able to compete with the Wolverines.
Projection: Gophers lose 13-34
