For the second year in a row, Clemson will be starting its regular season on Labor Day night. This time, the Tigers will travel to Durham, North Carolina to take on Duke in what is sure to be quite a test. In 2022 the Blue Devils surprised many people winning nine games in head coach Mike Elko’s first season. Now in his second season, Elko and his Blue Devils squad have a chance to take a huge step forward against the program he called “the golden standard” of the league. Duke is entering this game with something to prove making this a great test for this Clemson team that still has some question marks.
The History
In these two programs’ history, Clemson and Duke have played each other a total of 54 times. The series’ overall record is 37-16-1 favoring Clemson. The last time these two teams played was back in 2018 when Clemson won the game 35-6 in Death Valley. The last meeting in Durham was over a decade ago in 2012. Clemson also won that game handing Duke a 56-20 loss at home. That made the record for the Tigers 15-12 at Duke. Overall Clemson has a strong handle on the series between these programs. Although, with the elimination of divisions in the ACC recently, expect to see the Tigers and Blue Devils compete more often in the near future.
What Duke Looks Like
The Offense
Duke returns much of the talent this season that got them the most wins in program history since 2014 last season. On offense, the Blue Devils return 78% of their offensive production which was ranked fourth overall in the ACC last season. Even scarier for the ACC, quarterback Riley Leonard is returning after a great 2022.
After finishing last season with a 63.9% completion percentage, 2,967 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 699 rush yards, and 13 rushing touchdowns Leonard was named an honorable mention to the All-ACC team. He was one of only three quarterbacks in 2022 with 2,900+ passing yards and 695+ rushing yards. Leonard also was one of only two quarterbacks in the FBS with 20+ passing and 13+ rushing touchdowns. The 2023 preseason All-ACC third-team selection seems poised and determined to be even better and earn more respect. Watching the Duke Spring game it is easy to see he has been working hard to become a better pocket passer which seems to be the one thing he is missing. As a runner though he has proven to be one of the best rushing quarterbacks in college football today.
That works very well for this Duke team though as running the ball has been and will likely continue to be the foundation of success for this offense. The Blue Devils have a very strong offensive line with a projected first-round draft pick in tackle Graham Barton. They also have three very talented running backs Jordan Waters, Jaquez Moore, and Jaylen Coleman. If Clemson does not establish dominance early on defense, especially upfront, it could be a long night for the Tigers.
The Defense
The Blue Devils were good on defense last season as well. Considering that is Elko’s background though, that is to be expected. As a defense, Duke averaged 22.8 opponent points per game ranking sixth in the ACC. The thing it was best at though was taking the ball away. Last season Duke totaled 26 takeaways making the defense one of the best in the conference at causing turnovers.
Another great thing about this defense is their leader, defensive tackle DeWayne Carter. Carter is a three-time captain, something that is rare in any college football program. He is also a two-time program defensive lineman of the year. All the praise he gets in the program is much earned by the two-time All-ACC selection. In four years Carter has 86 total tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, seven forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, 11 quarterback pressures, and seven pass breakups. He is going to be the focus of how the Tigers’ offensive line establishes a ground game and protects Cade Klubnik.
What to Expect
This game is truly going to be a huge test for the Tigers. Duke is nowhere near the slouch of a program it was even two years ago. The Blue Devils have a real chance to be a sleeper in the ACC this year with the talent brought back, especially on offense. If Clemson comes out unprepared, the Tigers could get in a bad spot early on. Expect Duke to try to set up a running game to start with those three talented backs and Leonard himself. For much of the game, Duke will likely lean on Leonard to be the playmaker the coaches know him to be. That means using both his arm and legs to keep the offense in the game and Clemson’s defense guessing. The defensive line is going to have their work cut out for them going against this stout Duke offensive line, but getting in the backfield and causing chaos will be what slows down Leonard and Co. There is no better time than game one to show just how dominant of a defense the Tigers have.
Offensively it is likely that Duke will put the pressure on Klubnik early and often. It is still unknown just how good Klubnik is right now. It is obvious the potential for greatness is there but he’s still got to show it. This Duke defensive front is not going to make it easy to run the ball. Will Shipley and Phil Mafah should be able to get something going for themselves with their talent. Duke will do everything in its power though to make Klubnik and an unproven wide receiver group be the ones to beat them. This game could either start to expose Klubnik or be the beginning of his Heisman campaign.
Most Interesting Matchup
Much of this game, like most football games really, is going to boil down to which group wins the battle upfront. Both these teams have very good offensive and defensive lines. This Clemson defensive front four and Duke offensive front five are pretty special. These two groups will be the ones who truly determine the outcome of this game. More specifically, pay close attention to the matchup between defensive end Xavier Thomas and Duke offensive tackle Barton. Two NFL draft prospects who could really stake their claim as a first-round pick with a great game against the other. Thomas looks to be on a mission to prove he is one of the best defensive ends in the country. This is the perfect game to prove it. In camp, he has looked like the best out of the super-talented group for Clemson. Meanwhile, Barton is an All-American lineman already projected to go in the first round.
Prediction
As good as Duke has the potential to be, it still likely won’t be enough. In the beginning, the game is poised to be close as the Tigers offense still takes form. With a new coordinator and new starting quarterback, it is likely some miscues happen against this good Duke defense. Once settled in though, the Tigers should have no problems closing out the night strong. The shock early on could keep the score looking close at the end. Clemson should surely walk out with the win even if not by much.
Clemson 31-Duke 24
Photo courtesy: Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK
