Talent acquisition and retention drive college football. Recruiting is the most important task that a college coach will take on. While the most talented teams don’t always win, history has shown that there is a minimum recruiting ranking range teams need to be in to have a realistic shot at winning a national championship. Many consider LSU to be a top-10 team in 2023, so it’s fair to say they’re considered a legitimate contender. Popular opinion is nice, but what do the recruiting numbers say?
The State of LSU Recruiting – Championship Good?
Four Year Average
The casual fan who just watched Georgia win two consecutive national championships would likely assume that UGA signs the best class every year. Fortunately for the rest of the composite, that is not the case. Judging by the 247Sports Composite rankings, which combine rankings from different services to compile an average, the 2022 national champion Bulldogs had a four-year average ranking of 2.5. Yes, that’s elite, but it also means there is competition at the top.
The last four national champions included Kirby Smart’s breakthrough in 2021 with an average ranking of two, 2020 Alabama with a 2.25 average, and arguably the greatest team of them all in 2019 LSU. Shockingly, the 2019 Tigers had a four-year average class ranking of 7.25. However, a coaching change in the middle of this stretch helps explain the 15th-ranked finish in 2018 that significantly dropped the average.
These results give fans an idea of the range teams should be in to have a realistic chance of winning big. They also prove that talent identification and development can supersede rankings in terms of actual production. It’s important to note that the class rankings used for this purpose from 2022 – present include transfers.
The Current Outlook
LSU’s 2023 team has a four-year average ranking of 4.75. On the surface, it appears that the Tigers absolutely have a realistic chance of competing for a title in 2023. Unfortunately, the average does not consider how many players left the program before completing their eligibility at LSU.
So, while the annual talent grab puts LSU in the top 96% of FBS teams’ signing class averages, depth could be a concern. 13 players transferred from the 2020 class. Nine players from the 2021 class have left the program. At the same time, this is the era of NIL and the transfer portal, so no team is safe from unexpected transfers.
It’s important for LSU to be competitive in the realm of NIL, but it’s more important to recruit players that have a connection to the program that money can’t buy. Those players will have a higher chance of completing their college careers in Baton Rouge.
Recruit the Boot
The Tigers are currently ranked 11th in the country with 18 total commitments. Twelve of those 18 are from Louisiana. This is important in more ways than one.
First, the firm grasp on the state has and will continue to keep LSU among the elite in terms of talent. Also, Louisiana recruits are commonly underrated for a combination of reasons. Some recruits live in rural areas with little to no exposure, the level of competition is underrated at times, and some players don’t or can’t go to enough camps to get noticed.
Tyrann Mathieu, Deion Jones, Russel Gage, and Foster Moreau are just a few of the players that got late offers from LSU and have enjoyed productive careers in the NFL.
Current Class
Regardless of player ranking, this staff will closely evaluate players from the state and has not shown the propensity to chase big names across the country with whom they have a minimal chance of signing.
The current commitments in the secondary of Ondre Evans, Ju’Juan Johnson, Wallace Foster signify the end of the reliance on the transfer portal for cornerbacks. We can hear Brian Kelly’s sigh of relief from here. Not to mention, LSU is squarely in the mix for John Ehret’s Wardell Mack, considered by many to be the best cornerback in Louisiana. Four-star Florida native Cai Bates, another cornerback, is also high on the Tigers.
Tight end and East Feliciana star Trey’dez Green headlines the class, and local four-stars Deshawn McBride of Denham Springs and Joel Rogers from St. Francisville will replenish the safety position. The Tigers currently have commitments from six of the top 10 players in Louisiana with a realistic shot at three more in Mack, linebacker Tylen Singleton, and the top-ranked player in the state, Acadiana defensive tackle Dominick McKinley.
Securing these commitments won’t guarantee anything on the field, but it would indicate that LSU will be in a position in terms of talent to compete at the highest level.
Photo courtesy: SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK
