Both the #16 Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3; 6-3) and the #22 USC Trojans (8-4; 7-2) have a small familiar rivalry together. They have met nine previous times and the 2019 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl will be the 10th. This matchup will feature two near-elite conference teams in the Big Ten and the Pac-12. However, they were not quite at the conference championship level this year.
This game will also feature some of the most prolific players at their positions in the nation. These are players that will potentially be selected high for the 2020 NFL Draft and eventually become starters. Among all the bowl games this postseason, the Holiday Bowl is one of nine games composed of a ranked versus ranked opponents. This game is also one of three non-New Year’s Six Bowl games that features a ranked versus ranked matchup. The Hawkeyes are currently are a two-point favorite over the Trojans.
Trojans’ air raid offense versus Hawkeyes’ aggressive defense
The Trojans’ have seen some significant improvement in the air raid offense under first-year offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. This is possible despite some roadblocks ahead with quarterback JT Daniels tearing his ACL in the season opener against Fresno State. The Trojans’ offense, under quarterback Kedon Slovis, ranks fifth in the nation in passing yards per game (335.9). Slovis had help from wide receiver and Fred Biletnikoff Award finalist Michael Pittman Jr. They will face their toughest defense yet in an Iowa Hawkeyes’ defense ranked sixth overall in points allowed per game (13.2). Their defense gets consistently labeled as efficient all-throughout the field. The Hawkeyes’ defense ranks 11th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game (183.7). This is due to their ability to get to the quarterback, play tight in man-coverage, and instantly crowd the line of scrimmage on run plays.
Many matchups will instantly create an edge for either team. One of the first is Pittman Jr. versus Iowa cornerback Michael Ojemundia. Pittman has accounted for 95 receptions for 1,222 yards (an average of 12.9 yards per reception) and 11 touchdowns. Ojemundia is one of the most underrated press-coverage corners in the Big Ten with seven pass deflections and three interceptions. The Trojans have a complete talented group of productive receivers outside of Pittman. Iowa has a great secondary unit that plays tight in coverage schemes. Free safety Geno Stone was a second-team All-Big Ten Conference selection and will lead the back end of Iowa’s defense.
Battle at the line of scrimmage
This game will ultimately be decided at the line of scrimmage. The Hawkeyes have two linemen in defensive end A.J. Epenesa and tackle Tristan Wirfs projected in the top-20 of the 2020 NFL Draft. These are players that dominate each play consistently. This season, Epenesa has accounted for 45 total tackles, 24 solo tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, nine sacks, and three forced fumbles. The Trojans have a star lineman of their own that could potentially keep up with Epenesa. Austin Jackson was the most surprising offensive linemen for USC and has been receiving NFL Draft first-round attention. Jackson was a first-team all-conference selection in the Pac-12.
USC has only given up 24 sacks while Iowa has only given up 21 sacks with Wirfs leading the helm. Despite having Epenesa for Iowa, the Trojans have accounted for 14.5 more tackles for loss throughout the season. The Trojans have five consistent defensive linemen or blitzers that have accounted for five or more tackles for loss. Trojans defensive end Drake Jackson has accounted for 11.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks (leads the team in both). The main key to the game is for the offensive line to block consistently enough to drive the ball down the field. For USC, they must block long enough to give Sloivs time enough to deliver efficient deep passes to his targets. The Hawkeyes’ line must be able to give quarterback Nate Stanley time and to create a run game with their dual running back system.
