Late game regular season college football matters, and with key matchups in the BIG 10 and SEC Steen Kirby and John Bava have your key predictions covered including Ohio State vs Penn State, and Georgia vs Texas A&M.
#8 Penn State at #2 Ohio State (Saturday in Columbus, OH)
Line: Ohio State by 18.5
John: It’s hard to believe that Ohio State is nearly a three-touchdown favorite in this matchup between two top-10 teams. But it’s simply the nature of how dominant the Buckeyes have looked this year combined with this game being played at the Shoe. They also get Chase Young back who’s sat out the past two games due to an NCAA violation. He’s the latest sublimely dominant edge rusher to play for the Scarlet and Gray and a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. Add in offensive players such as Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins playing at a high level and you have the ideal recipe for Ohio State covering. Ohio State 41, Penn State 20
Steen: Ohio State may have blitzed every opponent this season, but this line still seems generous. Penn State is the best team they have faced all season and this is a meaningful game for both teams. A win for Penn State would put them right back into the playoff discussion, while Ohio State hopes to keep winning to shut the door on missing the playoff. Penn State has far more experience in close games this season and they should contend, but Ohio State’s offensive weapons will prove too much. Ohio State 35, Penn State 27
Steen:
Texas A&M at #4 Georgia (Saturday in Athens, GA)
Line: Georgia by 13
John: If the College Football Playoff began this week, Georgia would be in as the four-seed. They certainly control their own destiny if they win out as a result. First up is Texas A&M who play between the hedges for the first time since 1980 which, incidentally, was the last time UGA won a national title. The Aggies run the ball extremely well but the Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the nation defending the run as their rush defense is ranked third in FBS. Still, Georgia’s offense has been a bit underwhelming of late and that makes me inclined to think this game will be closer than Vegas is projecting. Georgia 24, Texas A&M 14
Steen: Texas A&M has high hopes long term, but this year they are again only in the position to play spoiler in the SEC after losing to Clemson, Auburn, and Alabama. Georgia has had some close shaves and a horrible loss to South Carolina this season but the defense is stout and the offense is good enough to secure a home win. Georgia 27, Texas A&M 17
Texas at #14 Baylor (Saturday in Waco, TX)
Line: Baylor by 5.5
John: Baylor had their Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl moment last week when they blew a 28-3 lead to Oklahoma. But Texas endured a tough loss of their own as they led 21-20 with a few seconds left against Iowa State only to give up a field goal as time expired. So it’s hard to gauge who’s susceptible to another letdown here. There was a time when Texas being an underdog of any sort to Baylor was unthinkable. That’s not the case in 2019 with the Longhorns coming into this game 6-4 while the Bears would’ve been undefeated if not for their late meltdown against the Sooners. Ultimately, I think that’s harder to recover from than Texas’ loss last week. Texas 30, Baylor 27
Steen: Losing to Oklahoma in a second half collapse certainly rattled Baylor, but they can’t afford to lose the momentum of this great season against rivals Texas this week. If they can return the defense to form and keep the offense clicking they should win against the Longhorns who competed in quality losses to LSU and Oklahoma but have been incredibly disappointed in their last four games. Against middling competition the Horns are 2-2 with both of their wins coming by a field goal and they are lucky to be bowl eligible. This isn’t a Texas team that looks to be in the form to upset Baylor. Baylor 41, Texas 28
#13 Michigan at Indiana (Saturday in Bloomington, IN)
Line: Michigan by 9.5
John: This is a classic trap game for Michigan. Next week is their annual clash with hated rival Ohio State who they’re 3-16 against since 2000. This Saturday, they head to Bloomington to face an Indiana team that they haven’t lost to since 1987. In fact, the Hoosiers have just nine wins against the Wolverines in 67 meetings dating back to 1900. But this is a different IU team. That showed last week when they went on the road and played Penn State close despite being 14.5-point underdogs. The last two meetings in Bloomington between these two sides went to overtime with Michigan narrowly prevailing. So I’m going to go with my heart as a Hoosier alum and say Indiana erases years of frustration in this series and pulls off the upset. Indiana 27, Michigan 24
Steen: These teams aren’t separated by much in the standings despite the talent gap. Michigan already has two losses and is out of the playoff picture, they are now hoping to play spoiler by winning out with wins against a bowl eligible Indiana team and hated rivals Ohio State. The offense has picked up the last three games and the defense has been solid all season. Indiana has rode an admittedly weak schedule to 7 wins so far, but they were competitive against a quality Penn State team on the road last week and it’s clear they are a threat to the bigger teams in the BIG 10. This should be another heartbreaker for Indiana as they will compete but fall short late in the 4th. Michigan 28, Indiana 21
#25 SMU at Navy (Saturday in Annapolis, MD)
Line: Navy by 3.5
John: With no more unbeatens among Group of Five teams, quite a few remain in the hunt for the New Year’s Six bowl berth. It includes three AAC teams in the current CFP top 25: Memphis (17), Cincinnati (18), and SMU (25). The Mustangs come into this road clash with Navy clearly needing some help and having to win out. The problem is their defense has given up 50+ points in their last two games, one of which ended their chances of an undefeated season. That doesn’t bode well going up against the vaunted triple option of the Midshipmen. Navy 40, SMU 32
Steen: Two of the best teams in the American conference will face off when SMU,a team with just one loss on their record, battles the run heavy Navy team that aims to bounce back against a big loss to Notre Dame. Navy can move the ball but their defense is suspect. SMU should gain enough yards through the air to secure the win in a shootout. SMU 48, Navy 42
