We are in the final third of the regular season. While there are some games that lack the glamour we all seek there are enough that warrant us giving you this advice; Sit Down. Find your chair. Get your beverage of choice. Put chores and tasks out of your mind. Make sure you have plenty of food. And sit down. There is enough to keep you spell bound through the day and night. The College Football Preview-Week 10.
College Football Preview-Week 10; Sit Down
Georgia (7-1) @ Kentucky (7-1); Saturday 3:30pm Est CBS
This is for the SEC East championship. Rub your eyes and re-read. You have not been paying enough attention to the team from Lexington all year and look at what you have missed. The SEC split into divisions in 1992 and the Wildcats have never won theirs. They have a shot, a real shot, now.
This has become the expectation for Georgia after last year’s national championship run. But that does not mean the dog park is clear for the Bulldogs. The faithful had been calling for Jake Fromm to sit down in favor of Justin Fields. He rebounded last week against Florida with a 240-yard, three touchdown performance. Of course, he has the two barking dogs behind him in running backs Elijah Holyfield and D’ Andre Swift.
That match-up gets interesting, the Georgia run game against the Kentucky run defense. The Wildcats run defense is #18 in the country, giving up only 109 yards per game. They have given up fewer than 100 yards on the ground in three of the last five games.
So, what about when you flip the field? Georgia’s offense is giving up 140 yards per game on the ground and over four yards per carry. And now they will have to try to stack the box to keep Kentucky running back Benny Snell sitting in neutral. That leaves it up to quarterback Terry Wilson to generate something. He had 267 yards passing against Missouri last week, but that was Missouri, and much if it was in desperation time. He has not even hit 1,000 yards for the season yet.
Take a seat and watch which team can generate offense in the fourth quarter.
Penn State (6-2) @ Michigan (7-1); Saturday 3:45pm Est ESPN
Sit down for a good old fashioned Big 10 push fest. This is not going to light up the scoreboard, but it is going to determine whether Michigan stays in the playoff hunt or not.
Michigan has the best defense in the country. We don’t just say so. The stats do. They are number one in the country against the pass and they are tops in the country in pass efficiency defense. Only one of the last five quarterbacks they have faced has passed for at least 100 yards. They also have the best offense they have had in the Jim Harbaugh era. Now that bar is not very high, but they are averaging more than six yards per play which puts them 33rd in the country. Karan Higdon is getting a respectable if not spectacular 118 yards per game. Shea Patterson is delivering in big games like no other Wolverines quarterback in recent years.
BUT, Patterson is going to be seeing a pass rush unlike any he has seen all season long. Penn State is third in the country with 28 sacks for a total of 183 yards lost. They also have nine interceptions and four fumble recoveries. They make plays. This week the Penn State offense will need to convert those turnovers into points against that tough Michigan defense. Trace McSorley’s completion percentage is very mediocre, (52.8). He needs to not only be mistake free, he needs to produce points. You are only going to get so many chances against the Michigan defense. Take advantage or you are going to be sitting and watching Harbaugh celebrate at the end.
Alabama (8-0) @ LSU (7-1); Saturday 7pm Est CBS
Fans sit around all season saying they want Alabama. They all think they are worthy of taking a shot at the champ. Alright LSU fans, sit down and enjoy your four hours in the ring. The Tigers have been waiting to get here. Bama has been assuming they would be here.
The Tide offense has been dominant the first eight games of the season. They are scoring 54 points a game. They are gauging defenses for 564 of offense per game. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has absurd stats, with more than 2,000 yards passing, 25 touchdowns and zero interceptions. And he barely knows what a fourth quarter looks like. He has turned the Heisman into a boat race.
Now that having been said, LSU’s defense is the best Bama will have faced all year. Prior to this week, the best defense the Tide has played in terms of yards per play, ranked 90th in the country. LSU’s defense is 24th. Remember how Tagovailoa has not been picked all year? LSU’s DBs have 14 interceptions this season. They held Jake Fromm to a 47% completion rate a couple of weeks back, creating calls for his benching. LSU will have to play the first half without linebacker Devin White. He is suspended for the first half because of a targeting penalty last week.
We know the LSU fans in Death Valley won’t be sitting down. But they will be biting their nails when the offense is on the field. Joe Burrow has been better than expected at quarterback, because no one knew what to expect. He is completing 54% of his passes and is doing fine between the thirties but has zero touchdown passes the entire month of October. The Tide secondary has given up big plays, but is Burrow capable of making them?
The Tigers are getting 190 yards per game rushing. They to need to cobble enough points together early to stay close. Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night is a special place, but LSU doesn’t have the offensive bite to make large scale comebacks if they get by too much too quickly.
Here is a stat to sit and ponder as you head into the weekend. Bama is a 14.5 favorite. The last time they covered that kind of spread in Baton Rouge, the coach on the LSU sideline….was Nick Saban.
