A third of the way through the season, and after injuries to arguably their best players on both offense and defense, what are realistic expectations for the Gophers down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the last third of their schedule. You can find part one of this series, with a look at games five through eight, here.
Games Nine through 12
This is likely the toughest stretch of the schedule. Minnesota travels to Illinois on November 3. Currently, the Illini are 2-2, with two Group of Five wins and losses to South Florida and Penn State. (They did, however, lead the Nittany Lions 24-21 in the third quarter before giving up 42 unanswered points in a quarter and a half of play.) I think this will be a competitive game, and if it were being played in the Twin Cities I’d call it a toss-up. As it is, I think the Illini pull off a close victory.
Up next is a visit from hot-and-cold Purdue. The Boilermakers lost their first three games by a combined eight points. It’s not a stretch to say they could just as easily have been 3-0. They thumped Boston College 30-13 in week four, in what I expected to be a much closer game. Most recently, they beat up on Nebraska (but who hasn’t?) 42-28. Quarterback David Blough is off to a very good start, and I think this is a game where losing Antoine Winfield is really going to hurt, both on defense and on special teams. This will be another competitive game, but I don’t think home field advantage will be enough of an advantage. Purdue wins a close one.
Unfortunately, things don’t get easier to end the season. Northwestern is a wild card- I watched their game with Michigan last week, and they looked good in the first half, terrible in the second. The Wildcats are adjusting to life without leading running back Jeremy Larkin, who was forced to retire due to cervical stenosis. The Wolverines held them to 0.8 yards per rush. I think the run game will be better by mid-November, but it’s the passing game and senior quarterback Clayton Thorson that concerns me more.
Finally, it’s the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Honestly, I wouldn’t have liked the Gophers’ odds in this game even fully healthy. It’s being played at Camp Randall this year, which certainly doesn’t help.
Expectations for the Gophers: In Conclusion
Expectations for the Gophers down the stretch: a win at Illinois is possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Ditto for Purdue. Northwestern- who knows, but I expect the Wildcats to come out on top. Wisconsin will be keeping the Axe for another year. HOWEVER…
This is a learning year for a young team. Even fully healthy, making it to a bowl game was going to be a tall order. Looking ahead, though, this baptism by fire could prove to serve the young players well. Rodney Smith and Antoine Winfield are each expected to be granted a sixth year of eligibility, and with them back, and a year under the belts of the freshmen, this team could surprise people a year from now.
