This is Reversal of Fortune Weekend for college football. No, we are not referring to the movie about the murder of famed socialite Sunny Von Bulow. We are referring to what the thesaurus labels as a hinderance, an impediment, a hitch, and a “whole new ballgame.” We have a slate of teams that have gotten off to good starts through the first three weeks of the season. But now they are facing games that could alter the course of their seasons. It will reverse some fortunes going forward. Here is the College Football Preview-Week 4.
College Football Preview-Week 4; Reversal Of Fortune
Texas A&M (2-1) @ Alabama (3-0); Saturday 3:30pm EST CBS
The college football world waits for Alabama to get its reversal of fortune each week. There are few teams in the country good enough to have a shot at giving it to the Tide. Is Texas A&M one of them? The Aggies have beaten two cupcakes, and clearly their best game of the year was a tough-to-swallow two-point loss at home to Clemson. They have felt a little less hindered since that performance where they actually out-gained the Tigers in total yards, 501-413. Quarterback Kellen Mond has been good, (six touchdown passes without an interception). But clearly this is going to be the toughest defense he has faced all season. That is probably why the Aggies are a 27-point underdog.
The Alabama defense is only #58 in the nation against the pass, giving up 201 yards per game, so Mond has a chance. He has to for A&M to have a chance. They are not going to run against the Tide defense. Alabama gives up just over three yards per carry. Now some sense of reality has to be brought into the conversation. The Tide have had their first three games against decisively over-matched Louisville, Arkansas State and Ole Miss teams. They have outscored their opponents 170-28 in the first three games. Tua Tagovailoa has eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions, but this will be the first real defense he faces this season.
Clemson (3-0) @ Georgia Tech (1-2); Saturday 3:30pm EST ABC
Clemson’s fortunes are just fine, thank you very much, once they escaped College Station two weeks ago. They should have a game they can control versus Georgia Tech. But…there is always that “but” when it comes to Georgia Tech and the Yellowjackets difficult to defend offense. GA Tech is tops in the country in rushing at close to 400 yards per game. Not coincidentally, they are also the top team in the ACC in time of possession. Their challenge is they are a one-dimensional team. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall is completing only 47% of his passes, (which is actually a 10-point improvement over last year), and has more interceptions than touchdown passes, (four to two).
TaQuon Marshall, meet the Clemson defense. The Tigers are giving up only 89 yards rushing per game so far. The A&M game was the only real opponent Clemson has played thus far, but even they were held to 71 yards on the ground. The Tigers do not spend a lot of time getting their points. Clemson averages only 26:37 per game with the offense on the field. That would figure to play into GA Tech’s hands, if it weren’t for that Clemson defense.
Clemson has held Georgia Tech to its lowest yards per game total for the season in three of their last four match-ups.
TCU (2-1) @ Texas (2-1); Saturday 4:30pm EST Fox
Fortunes are on the move in this game. TCU put up a fight against Ohio State last week, even leading 21-13 in the third quarter, before being over run in Arlington 40-28. Do the Horned Frogs have any emotion left after that game? Or did they spend everything they had only to come up short. It is not easy to rebound with little time in between. Even in the loss, TCU’s running game was strong for the first time. Darius Anderson picked up 154 yards against the Buckeyes and got his first two touchdowns of the season. The Frogs are getting 225 yards per game on the ground. They need the consistency because quarterback Shawn Robinson has not been that with only five touchdown passes against three interceptions.
Texas on the other hand is getting some stepped up game from quarterback Sam Ehlinger. He is completing 58% of his passes and has two touchdown passes in each of the first three games, including last week’s shellacking of USC in Austin. He has not thrown an interception since week one. The Longhorns offense also converted on 10 of 19 third down opportunities last week against USC. The defense was equally solid, allowing USC negative five yards net rushing total last week.
TCU has won four straight versus Texas and even with this being a non-conference game, it is going to go a long way, with both teams 2-1, in altering the course of someone’s season.
Miss. State (3-0) @ Kentucky (3-0); Saturday 7pm EST ESPN2
This is an unusual game for us to highlight. I don’t think we have done it in four years of this column. But heck, someone’s fortune is getting reversed Saturday night, right?
Mississippi State has outscored its opponents 150-26 this season. Its opponents, however, have been Stephen F. Austin (the team, not the founder of Texas), Kansas State and Louisiana Lafayette. The run defense has been predictably stellar thus far. The defensive front of Geri Green, Jeffrey Simmons, Montez Sweat, and Braxton Hoyett are yielding only 85 yards per game. The Bulldogs have also won eight of the last 10 over Kentucky.
The Wildcats don’t want to hear about numbers though. They are feeling pretty giddy still, after the win at Florida two weeks ago that ended a three decades long drought. Kentucky needs a heavy dose of Benny Snell in this game. Yes, it sounds counter intuitive against the great defensive line we just highlighted. But the Wildcats are going to want to control the flow of the game and the clock as best as possible. Quarterback Terry Wilson has a terrific completion percentage but is still prone to turnovers. Keep control of the clock and manage the pace. Linebacker Josh Allen will have his looks at Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, (four touchdowns, one interception).
At the end of the night someone’s fortunes will still be going forward and some’s will have reversed.
